Current Affairs Ukraine

[tsubaki]

I understand what you tend to allude to regarding the geopolitical situation and I believe that you are correct that Russia and China are looking to reshape the world and are courting states to fall in line with a new world order. The thing to consider is that in many respects Ukraine is the battle ground for this. If Russia was to win and slap the west/US down then the countries thinking of joining this new club would feel emboldened. Putin would cast his eyes onto former Soviet states too. If Russia is defeated then any transient states will be less inclined to listen to the Russia Chinese spin. China will not be so sure that invading Taiwan is a good idea if Russia is defeated in Ukraine. Putin and his cronies will most likely go out the window if Russia is defeated and there would be an opportunity to try and bring Russia into or at least align with the Eurpean family of nations. Ukraine is the key, the west sees this thus the support.

I don't know if you've ever read Viktor Suvorov's book "Inside the Soviet Army", but it is perhaps worth re-reading in the light of these events.

By that I mean we need to understand how other cultures understand our mindset. Suvorov claimed that the Soviets were baffled by how the US thought a war with the Soviets would go - a gradual rising of tensions in a far away place followed by a gradual escalation in weapons use in a far away place up to the point of use of battlefield nuclear weapons, and then a possible strategic nuclear exchange. He compared it to two cowboys in a faceoff, which the good guy would inevitably win because he'd have had the time to prepare for it.

Suvorov claimed that it would be more likely the Soviets would just first strike the US whenever they thought they could get away with it, because without the US the rest would be easy and because why would they put themselves in a position where they are likely to lose? Given the massive disparity between the US and Russia nowadays I doubt that is something they'd do, but it seems clear that they see the US as the biggest threat to them globally still and the one that should be dealt with first.

What worries me is that this war seems designed to get the sort of reaction that it has gotten so far from the West - sanctions causing economic hardship here and globally, increased dependence on the US for security assistance, expansion of NATO as part of that dependence but increased isolation of the West from other major global countries. If you remove the US from those structures - such as by getting a President who drives away the US's allies and creates the conflict for civil disorder at home, or by an event where the US is not effectively supported by its allies (like the invasion of Taiwan) - then they will collapse, which then allow a load more possibilities for them.

I think for our own safety what should be happening is that the EU and the UK should be massively ramping up our combined defence industrial capacity and effectively building a pan-European armed force that can defend the continent and its near abroad. I don't think the US wants that because of what it would mean (the EU would be an equal partner in this, and over time would probably be the dominant partner given its ability to expand), but I think its what needs to happen urgently. It should have started in 2017, and certainly in 2022, mind.

 

[tsubaki]

If there was a grander more disastrous plan from Russia against the West surely not intervening and supporting Ukraine would only have enhanced this?
Or do you believe we'd have been better off doing nothing?

I think we'd have been better off fixing the faults in our societies, economies and military that the Russians and whoever else are exploiting, as well as supporting Ukraine. More genuine energy independence (ie: renewables) , more economic equality and stability, solidarity and cooperation of all kinds with our allies and anyone else who is interested, an end to politics that deliberately stoke division and better assistance for other countries that helps them with all of the above.

The more we do to prepare ourselves, the more help we can give. The more help we will get, too.

Of course the idiots who run our countries would lose out, but they should - they are useless.

 

[Mrk]

Mate, these suspicious crashes are all part of Putin's grand geopolitical plan. Do you not read this thread?

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I don't know if you've ever read Viktor Suvorov's book "Inside the Soviet Army", but it is perhaps worth re-reading in the light of these events.

By that I mean we need to understand how other cultures understand our mindset. Suvorov claimed that the Soviets were baffled by how the US thought a war with the Soviets would go - a gradual rising of tensions in a far away place followed by a gradual escalation in weapons use in a far away place up to the point of use of battlefield nuclear weapons, and then a possible strategic nuclear exchange. He compared it to two cowboys in a faceoff, which the good guy would inevitably win because he'd have had the time to prepare for it.

Suvorov claimed that it would be more likely the Soviets would just first strike the US whenever they thought they could get away with it, because without the US the rest would be easy and because why would they put themselves in a position where they are likely to lose? Given the massive disparity between the US and Russia nowadays I doubt that is something they'd do, but it seems clear that they see the US as the biggest threat to them globally still and the one that should be dealt with first.

What worries me is that this war seems designed to get the sort of reaction that it has gotten so far from the West - sanctions causing economic hardship here and globally, increased dependence on the US for security assistance, expansion of NATO as part of that dependence but increased isolation of the West from other major global countries. If you remove the US from those structures - such as by getting a President who drives away the US's allies and creates the conflict for civil disorder at home, or by an event where the US is not effectively supported by its allies (like the invasion of Taiwan) - then they will collapse, which then allow a load more possibilities for them.

I think for our own safety what should be happening is that the EU and the UK should be massively ramping up our combined defence industrial capacity and effectively building a pan-European armed force that can defend the continent and its near abroad. I don't think the US wants that because of what it would mean (the EU would be an equal partner in this, and over time would probably be the dominant partner given its ability to expand), but I think its what needs to happen urgently. It should have started in 2017, and certainly in 2022, mind.

Can’t disagree with most of that. However I feel that given events over the past few years Europe has woken up (finally) and appears more united than ever before albeit under the NATO umbrella.

Speaking of the NATO umbrella, I personally feel that the European states of NATO will take on more and more responsibility for defence and cooperation with the US understandably given the China/Taiwan situation take a more back seat role. A big part of this evolution will see the rise of Poland to become one of the dominant military powers.

As for the economic evolution, you’re right that the US would not wish to see Europe become a major competitor to itself but hey, you can’t have everything. They’re just going to have to evolve and deal with that “threat”.

As for the more short term stuff in Ukraine , there’s no way anyone can be sure what Putin’s goals and aspirations were at the outset, what we do know is that his army has been decimated, his capability to wage war has been massively damaged, and his economy is in major trouble. I doubt that he had foreseen or planned for any of these situations. He now faces military defeat in Ukraine, a rejuvenated NATO with Finland now on board with NATO surveillance aircraft, and missile defence sites positioned only a 100Kms from his Nuclear sub bases and airfields near Murmansk.

Politically he’s finished, the in-fighting and positioning within the Kremlin has already begun. Whatever his long-term goals were, he won’t be around to see them fulfilled or squashed.

 

[Yarrgh]

Well, yes. But open conflict with NATO on the ground is in nobody's interests. Invading an ex member of the Soviet Union is the logical conclusion of indulging Putin for 20 years. Murder people all over Europe? Have a World Cup! Continually mess around in elections? Please host the winter olympics! Shoot down a passenger jet? Have a state visit!

The west's unwillingness to call Russia's bluff over the years has undoutedly emboldened an out-of-touch-with-reality autocrat to believe that there are no consequences for anything he does.

100%

We have enabled a corrupt power structure and a mafia style government to loot their own country because they made everyone turn their eyes away by greasing the grasping paws of a lot of people in the west who'd rather dirty cash than bothering to do the right thing.

None of this excuses Russia, but we in the West need to put in place strict measures against foreign influence and money laundering and actually follow them.

No doubt this will come home to roost yet again if and when we decide that Yemeni and Palestinian conflicts are wrong etc.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I don't know if you've ever read Viktor Suvorov's book "Inside the Soviet Army", but it is perhaps worth re-reading in the light of these events.

By that I mean we need to understand how other cultures understand our mindset. Suvorov claimed that the Soviets were baffled by how the US thought a war with the Soviets would go - a gradual rising of tensions in a far away place followed by a gradual escalation in weapons use in a far away place up to the point of use of battlefield nuclear weapons, and then a possible strategic nuclear exchange. He compared it to two cowboys in a faceoff, which the good guy would inevitably win because he'd have had the time to prepare for it.

Suvorov claimed that it would be more likely the Soviets would just first strike the US whenever they thought they could get away with it, because without the US the rest would be easy and because why would they put themselves in a position where they are likely to lose? Given the massive disparity between the US and Russia nowadays I doubt that is something they'd do, but it seems clear that they see the US as the biggest threat to them globally still and the one that should be dealt with first.

What worries me is that this war seems designed to get the sort of reaction that it has gotten so far from the West - sanctions causing economic hardship here and globally, increased dependence on the US for security assistance, expansion of NATO as part of that dependence but increased isolation of the West from other major global countries. If you remove the US from those structures - such as by getting a President who drives away the US's allies and creates the conflict for civil disorder at home, or by an event where the US is not effectively supported by its allies (like the invasion of Taiwan) - then they will collapse, which then allow a load more possibilities for them.

I think for our own safety what should be happening is that the EU and the UK should be massively ramping up our combined defence industrial capacity and effectively building a pan-European armed force that can defend the continent and its near abroad. I don't think the US wants that because of what it would mean (the EU would be an equal partner in this, and over time would probably be the dominant partner given its ability to expand), but I think its what needs to happen urgently. It should have started in 2017, and certainly in 2022, mind.

I haven't read Suvorov's book but I'll keep an eye for it if its worth a read. That said, although I'd be interested to get a view from the time of the USSR it most likely would not represent the realities of today and I think that you are correct in assuming that Russia would not strike the US first, they know it'd be the end end of them and a good portion of life as we know it.

I don't agree that the US wants to isolate Europe globally.

I agree that we should be working closely with the EU and building a military that would deter any bad actors/states from thinking about doing something stupid. I also suspect that the US might not see that as something that benefits them.

We do need to either force Russia to leave Ukriane or see them defeated in Ukraine. There can be no victory for Putin or there will be an escalation of problems in the years to come.

 

[PhilM]

There’s footage of one of the fast jets falling from the sky out there too.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

There’s footage of one of the fast jets falling from the sky out there too.

Wow - wonder how that happened

 

[PhilM]

Wow - wonder how that happened

Apparently, one of the Mi-8s was downed by their own air defences, as evidenced by a recording, whereas Russia said it was simply a mechanical fault.



There are pictures of Mi-8 wreckage with what appears to be holes in the fuselage from fragmentation or bullets, although may not be linked.

Here is, apparently, the SU-34. More and more irreplaceable air assets doing down the swanny.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Apparently, one of the Mi-8s was downed by their own air defences, as evidenced by a recording, whereas Russia said it was simply a mechanical fault.



There are pictures of Mi-8 wreckage with what appears to be holes in the fuselage from fragmentation or bullets, although may not be linked.

Here is, apparently, the SU-34. More and more irreplaceable air assets doing down the swanny.

As always Russia speaks…Russia lies.

 

[tsubaki]

I haven't read Suvorov's book but I'll keep an eye for it if its worth a read. That said, although I'd be interested to get a view from the time of the USSR it most likely would not represent the realities of today and I think that you are correct in assuming that Russia would not strike the US first, they know it'd be the end end of them and a good portion of life as we know it.

I don't agree that the US wants to isolate Europe globally.

I agree that we should be working closely with the EU and building a military that would deter any bad actors/states from thinking about doing something stupid. I also suspect that the US might not see that as something that benefits them.

We do need to either force Russia to leave Ukriane or see them defeated in Ukraine. There can be no victory for Putin or there will be an escalation of problems in the years to come.

where did I say isolate? I said be dependent on them

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

where did I say isolate? I said be dependent on them

Good for you mate, just go for it.

 

[peteblue]

where did I say isolate? I said be dependent on them

Define dependent…..

 

[peteblue]

9As always Russia speaks…Russia lies.

tbf about 3000 tanks have also had mechanical failures…..

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

News saying Russia bombing the hometown of the act on Eurovision. Pathetic trolls.