Current Affairs Ukraine

[Nightman]

For a start I think you need to understand what "deflected" means - it was an answer to his question.

On the face of it, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia makes very little sense - economically, politically, militarily. It makes rather more sense as part of a much wider plan, which is why I think people here and in the population at large should stop lapping up all the happy news coming out of Ukraine as if that is the entirity of it and instead ensure that our government is forced into taking measures to prepare us and our society for what might be coming our way.

You answered a question by asking another question to change direction of the conversation. That's the very definition of deflection.

I appreciate the response and it's been interesting reading your posts. You have fascinating viewpoints - but not ones I subscribe to.

You still didn't answer the original question, though.

 

[tsubaki]

Biggest contributor of non military aid to Ukraine? The EU.

2 new NATO member states on Russia's border? Check

Ukraine wanting to join both organisations? Yup.

I dont doubt that Russia is playing exactly that game, after all, its been Putin's play book for 15 years. However, if I'm being charitable, he's grossly miscalculated the strength of will in "the west" to stand up to such aggression.

Admittedly, it would have been better to do it in 2014, but we are where we are.

All of those were easily predictable outcomes of invading though and were almost certainly repeatedly communicated to him in advance; he did it anyway.

He was more concerned I think with the strength of will everywhere else to stand up to such aggression. Had he been confronted by most of the rest of the world piling in to help Ukraine this really would be a complete failure of plan and he'd probably have slunk back across the border months ago.

 

[tsubaki]

You answered a question by asking another question to change direction of the conversation. That's the very definition of deflection.

I appreciate the response and it's been interesting reading your posts. You have fascinating viewpoints - but not ones I subscribe to.

You still didn't answer the original question, though.

I am sorry but why, when I've repeatedly said that I think this is much broader in scope than just Ukraine (and needs a much broader response on that basis) should I have to answer a question that implies this is just about Ukraine in terms that only focus on Ukraine?

It would be like discussing the mess our club is in by only focusing on Lampard.

 

[Tony101]

I am sorry but why, when I've repeatedly said that I think this is much broader in scope than just Ukraine (and needs a much broader response on that basis) should I have to answer a question that implies this is just about Ukraine in terms that only focus on Ukraine?

It would be like discussing the mess our club is in by only focusing on Lampard.

I believe he expected to roll Ukraine early install a pro Russian government and has failed. I don’t think there is a big master plan like you believe. I think it would have been much worse if he had actually achieved in taking Ukraine early.

 

[Lobster Johnson]

All of those were easily predictable outcomes of invading though and were almost certainly repeatedly communicated to him in advance; he did it anyway.

He was more concerned I think with the strength of will everywhere else to stand up to such aggression. Had he been confronted by most of the rest of the world piling in to help Ukraine this really would be a complete failure of plan and he'd probably have slunk back across the border months ago.

Well, yes. But open conflict with NATO on the ground is in nobody's interests. Invading an ex member of the Soviet Union is the logical conclusion of indulging Putin for 20 years. Murder people all over Europe? Have a World Cup! Continually mess around in elections? Please host the winter olympics! Shoot down a passenger jet? Have a state visit!

The west's unwillingness to call Russia's bluff over the years has undoutedly emboldened an out-of-touch-with-reality autocrat to believe that there are no consequences for anything he does.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I am sorry but why, when I've repeatedly said that I think this is much broader in scope than just Ukraine (and needs a much broader response on that basis) should I have to answer a question that implies this is just about Ukraine in terms that only focus on Ukraine?

It would be like discussing the mess our club is in by only focusing on Lampard.

I understand what you tend to allude to regarding the geopolitical situation and I believe that you are correct that Russia and China are looking to reshape the world and are courting states to fall in line with a new world order. The thing to consider is that in many respects Ukraine is the battle ground for this. If Russia was to win and slap the west/US down then the countries thinking of joining this new club would feel emboldened. Putin would cast his eyes onto former Soviet states too. If Russia is defeated then any transient states will be less inclined to listen to the Russia Chinese spin. China will not be so sure that invading Taiwan is a good idea if Russia is defeated in Ukraine. Putin and his cronies will most likely go out the window if Russia is defeated and there would be an opportunity to try and bring Russia into or at least align with the Eurpean family of nations. Ukraine is the key, the west sees this thus the support.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Why do you assume the war against Ukraine is the whole of the plan?

Oh, I don't, that is the point! He had (imo) intended to waltz through Ukraine and then assess the situation with regards other former soviet states but, he has been battered before getting anywhere near Kiev, hence my stance that his SMO has NOT gone toplan, not even close.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[PhilM]

Oh, I don't, that is the point! He had (imo) intended to waltz through Ukraine and then assess the situation with regards other former soviet states but, he has been battered before getting anywhere near Kiev, hence my stance that his SMO has NOT gone toplan, not even close.

Any suggestion that Russia's plans have gone anywhere near to plan is pretty ludicrous. The wider geopolitical situation and the war aren't mutually the same.

One (the war) can be going terribly without drastically impacting on the other negatively, or at least right now. In reality, Russia has got itself in a deep hole.

The Russian armed forces have been absolutely mauled, and right now I don't see it learning and strengthening from its failures.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

Any suggestion that Russia's plans have gone anywhere near to plan is pretty ludicrous. The wider geopolitical situation and the war aren't mutually the same.

One (the war) can be going terribly without drastically impacting on the other negatively, or at least right now. In reality, Russia has got itself in a deep hole.

The Russian armed forces have been absolutely mauled, and right now I don't see it learning and strengthening from its failures.

I have said this many times, but I do not see how they get out of this with any dignity.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[PKwalnuts]

For a start I think you need to understand what "deflected" means - it was an answer to his question.

On the face of it, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia makes very little sense - economically, politically, militarily. It makes rather more sense as part of a much wider plan, which is why I think people here and in the population at large should stop lapping up all the happy news coming out of Ukraine as if that is the entirity of it and instead ensure that our government is forced into taking measures to prepare us and our society for what might be coming our way.

If there was a grander more disastrous plan from Russia against the West surely not intervening and supporting Ukraine would only have enhanced this?
Or do you believe we'd have been better off doing nothing?

 

[PhilM]

I have said this many times, but I do not see how they get out of this with any dignity.

We've got to be mindful that Putin and his cronies won't be thinking rationally or objectively, but Russia should be thinking long-term rather than short-term.

Do they double down and continue to be mauled trying to advance, with the potential risk of losing their control over the state, or do they compromise?

Militarily, Russia should be at least considering or planning to fall back to defensive positions that they can likely hold, providing themselves with the advantage.

Even if that means giving up some of their gains and admitting their failures, tactically and politically it would be the best in the long run if they did that.

Now, I'd rather they didn't, but that'd be what I'd be thinking. They could cause a stalemate, hold some land (and as such some stalemate) and meet at the table.

The west would be less likely to offer military support if they gave up most of their gains yet held some land in the east. It'd be harder for Ukraine to advance too.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

We've got to be mindful that Putin and his cronies won't be thinking rationally or objectively, but Russia should be thinking long-term rather than short-term.

Do they double down and continue to be mauled trying to advance, with the potential risk of losing their control over the state, or do they compromise?

Militarily, Russia should be at least considering or planning to fall back to defensive positions that they can likely hold, providing themselves with the advantage.

Even if that means giving up some of their gains and admitting their failures, tactically and politically it would be the best in the long run if they did that.

Now, I'd rather they didn't, but that'd be what I'd be thinking. They could cause a stalemate, hold some land (and as such some stalemate) and meet at the table.

The west would be less likely to offer military support if they gave up most of their gains yet held some land in the east. It'd be harder for Ukraine to advance too.

It is very difficult to see an happy medium for all parties, Putins very nature will not allow him to be seen to admit any defeat. At best, they keep Crimea?!