Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[tsubaki]

You sound like an Iranian diplomat “wasn’t us chief”.

Check out Dimas airbase in Syria it would appear that Syria moved a significant amount of resources to that base.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiBmLSvpfn6AhXVh1wKHVtlDmcQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https://www.syriahr.com/en/272927/&usg=AOvVaw2bw5AwoRdNyhqctWY3gVhp

er - its not a diplomatic point to state that Iranian drones aren't made in Syria; they are made in Iran

 

[PeregrineT]

it won't - they aren't made in Syria

But they are. I dont know how many of them are, but its undeniable some of those Iranian drones are made in Syria.

It would be like saying if Russia assembles a tank in Kherson that its not a Russian tank. Now sure, it will be taken by a tractor in short order and become Ukranian, but until that point its a Russian tank.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Not via the medium of diplomacy they haven't - they've stood off and uselessly pontificated, rather than bringing in any kind of attempts to actually stop the fighting.

I mean to cite the worst example this is the biggest crisis in many years, and the US President is not engaging with his Russian counterpart - no talks, no hot-line, no summits. This abdication is not something that can be easily blamed on the Russians, and is both unprecedented and profoundly dangerous.

I’m assuming that the issue is that the Ukrainians don’t want a ceasefire currently as they presumably see it as a way for Russia to reinforce their troops/positions with no intention of making any actual change to their long term plans. There is a very limited window for Ukraine to regain Kherson until the weather turns really bad and further major movements are very constricted.

I can’t presently see a diplomatic solution that would be acceptable to both sides so a summit would imo be purely for political pr.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

posted earlier

Death toll update | Three non-Syrians among eight people killed in Israeli attacks on military positions in Damascus • The Syrian Observatory For Human Rights

SOHR sources have reported that the number of people who were killed in the Israeli strikes on military positions in the surrounding areas of Damascus in the early hours of Friday morning has risen to eight. According to SOHR sources, the fatalities are three people of non-Syrian nationalities...

www.syriahr.com

 

[tsubaki]

But they are. I dont know how many of them are, but its undeniable some of those Iranian drones are made in Syria.

It would be like saying if Russia assembles a tank in Kherson that its not a Russian tank. Now sure, it will be taken by a tractor in short order and become Ukranian, but until that point its a Russian tank.

It is absolutely deniable to say that some of those Iranian drones are made in Syria - the whole point of the Iranian drone programme is precisely that it is indigenous to them. The Syrians might be manufacturing some under licence for their own use, but these will not be supplied to Iran or Iran's customers.

 

[tsubaki]

I’m assuming that the issue is that the Ukrainians don’t want a ceasefire currently as they presumably see it as a way for Russia to reinforce their troops/positions with no intention of making any actual change to their long term plans. There is a very limited window for Ukraine to regain Kherson until the weather turns really bad and further major movements are very constricted.

I can’t presently see a diplomatic solution that would be acceptable to both sides so a summit would imo be purely for political pr.

Again though, that isn't a reason to not talk. We know they are talking at some level - the POW exchanges and the grain deal for example - and as I've tried to say there really isnt any good reason not to talk at a higher level, even if it is a complete waste of time it will at least show to the rest of the world some willingness.

 

[PhilM]

er - its not a diplomatic point to state that Iranian drones aren't made in Syria; they are made in Iran

Are all their drones domestically built? For example, Iranian drones are made in Tajikistan; now, the IAF are themselves reporting they've hit a plant in Syria.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Iran has been producing some of their drones in Syria, especially considering what else they've provided them.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Again though, that isn't a reason to not talk. We know they are talking at some level - the POW exchanges and the grain deal for example - and as I've tried to say there really isnt any good reason not to talk at a higher level, even if it is a complete waste of time it will at least show to the rest of the world some willingness.

Doesn’t that assume high level talks that are unlikely to yield anything other than showing willingness are risk free?

More your area (and @PhilM @Martin Alvito ) than mine but seems to me there is a risk that they could harden positions just as easily as they could soften them - I trust Biden more than Trump but I still don’t have a great expectation of his negotiation skills.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

er - its not a diplomatic point to state that Iranian drones aren't made in Syria; they are made in Iran

Proof will be in the pudding. If those drone attacks ease off in the coming weeks then it’s probably due to the Israeli strikes.

 

[PhilM]

Doesn’t that assume high level talks that are unlikely to yield anything other than showing willingness are risk free?

More your area (and @PhilM @Martin Alvito ) than mine but seems to me there is a risk that they could harden positions just as easily as they could soften them - I trust Biden more than Trump but I still don’t have a great expectation of his negotiation skills.

I suspect discussions taking place lower down the chain, as @tsubaki rightly refers to, will slowly but surely be built on and more important issues will be discussed.

Rightly or wrongly, trust needs to be built with clear guidelines and evidence of success before the senior leaders commit. One aspect is the hardening positions.

But ultimately, it likely originates from their own need for self-preservation, as unsuccessful talks could undermine their authority as concessions are required.

Does the Ukrainian government want to be seen as talking about compromise? Will Putin? Sadly, it'll take time. Look how long the PIRA and UK negotiated for.

 

[Tennessee Blue Mike]

Classic whataboutery - when in doubt bring up the Iraq war.

You need some new material

Classic davids. From the same playbook.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

I cant support anything those rats do, im sorry, but they are just the worst.

I hear ya

 

[Martin Alvito]

Doesn’t that assume high level talks that are unlikely to yield anything other than showing willingness are risk free?

More your area (and @PhilM @Martin Alvito ) than mine but seems to me there is a risk that they could harden positions just as easily as they could soften them - I trust Biden more than Trump but I still don’t have a great expectation of his negotiation skills.

I'm not aware, off the top of my head, of any cases where the consensus is that diplomatic discussion caused the parties to come away with hardened positions. There's plenty in the psychological literature to suggest the possibility, but world leaders tend to be pretty rational in the "I know what I want and I know how to get it" sense. Somebody showed pretty unequivocally that Air Force officers are better at that than the usual college student lab rats about 25 years ago.

I will continue to maintain that we won't observe meaningful talks until either Russia is ready to cough up Crimea or Ukraine gets beaten down to the point that they are compelled to accept territorial concessions. There's not a lot of point in a conversation when the sides are this far apart.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Are all their drones domestically built? For example, Iranian drones are made in Tajikistan; now, the IAF are themselves reporting they've hit a plant in Syria.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Iran has been producing some of their drones in Syria, especially considering what else they've provided them.

Also makes sense logistically given the Russian presence in Syria. No need to fly all the way to Tehran and back when you’ve got transport aircraft on the ground in Syria.