Current Affairs Ukraine

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Martin Alvito said:
No, Zelenskyy has played the Western media incredibly well. Ukraine would have to make territorial concessions to end this short of driving the Russians out entirely. What Zelenskyy has done is make that a non-starter for Western governments, who would be confronted with outrage from the governed if they lined up behind anything short of Russia's explusion from de jure Ukrainian territory.

That, in turn, got him maximum aid from the West with respect to prosecuting the war. The question is whether it will turn into a trap where the situation on the ground stalemates and Zelenskyy is unable to negotiate his way out of that mess. In fairness, I would suggest that while it might cost him power in such a scenario, he would probably say, "Worth."
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Not sure about any of that TBH - the majority of people lean towards Ukraine (given the circumstances), but would they really be vehemently opposed to any peace deal that resulted in the Ukrainians ceding territory (much of which they've not controlled since 2014) or losing complete control over it? People want peace, I am not sure they want (or even think is realistic) that the Ukrainians fight on until they've liberated the Donbass and Crimea.

Also its hard to square "playing the media" with "indicates actual effective support from the population" - I mean, Johnson played the media fantastically well without ever getting genuine support from most people. Is anything really that popular when it requires endless media output to sell it?

Would Zelensky really be able to blackmail Western governments with internal political issues over a peace deal when he is so dependent on their aid, when they only have to tell him to negotiate effectively, and when the cost of living crisis is causing far greater internal political (and economic) problems? I really do not think that he would be able to do it - I think if there was a realistic chance of a peace deal that would last, the pressure would be on him rather than the other way around and he would have to take it.

Obviously the key bit there is "realistic chance of a peace deal that would last".
 
tsubaki said:
Not sure about any of that TBH - the majority of people lean towards Ukraine (given the circumstances), but would they really be vehemently opposed to any peace deal that resulted in the Ukrainians ceding territory (much of which they've not controlled since 2014) or losing complete control over it? People want peace, I am not sure they want (or even think is realistic) that the Ukrainians fight on until they've liberated the Donbass and Crimea.

Also its hard to square "playing the media" with "indicates actual effective support from the population" - I mean, Johnson played the media fantastically well without ever getting genuine support from most people. Is anything really that popular when it requires endless media output to sell it?

Would Zelensky really be able to blackmail Western governments with internal political issues over a peace deal when he is so dependent on their aid, when they only have to tell him to negotiate effectively, and when the cost of living crisis is causing far greater internal political (and economic) problems? I really do not think that he would be able to do it - I think if there was a realistic chance of a peace deal that would last, the pressure would be on him rather than the other way around and he would have to take it.

Obviously the key bit there is "realistic chance of a peace deal that would last".
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That is, indeed, the key. Zelenskyy has sold everyone on the notion that no peace deal would last, on the basis of Putin's history. It's a reasonable charge.

Can he blackmail Western governments? No. However, reality is that most democratic governments are in power on the strength of a few percentage points of voters. Nobody really knows what happens to, say, Biden's public perception if he backs down. He might be able to chance a peace deal after the November election, or it might cost him 2024 outright. Backing a peace deal is a huge risk with no guarantee of a return, from Biden's perspective.

As long as the Ukrainians are advancing, there won't be any appetite for a peace deal. If things stalemate, that could change in the West. It could also change in Ukraine, but Zelenskyy can't flip-flop to make it happen. He's too invested in driving Russia out entirely.
 
bluestevon said:
Not at all, but it's laughable to think todays attacks where anything but a very coordinated and precise strike on very specific targets. I doubt a piece of grass in an empty park was on the list between headquarters of the SBU in Kiev and the thermal power plant in Lvov.
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Have you ever thought about being a stand up comedian? On this evidence you're a funny guy.
 
Daveysgingerlovechild said:
That's dissapointing. You equivocated that a famous case featuring the death of an M15 agent was blamed on the Russians automatically. One could infer you were intimating this not to be the case. Thus, a fair and simple question.

Indeed, your broader argument throughout this thread has been that there is much anti-russian sentiment and media spin. This is a good opportunity to illuminate your broader case.

Alas, the invitation is dismissed as a childish question. So again, sir, I offer you the opportunity to elucidate your point via the example offered by your good self.
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www.mirror.co.uk

Police chief breaks silence over 'body in bag' MI6 spy found naked in bath

The naked body of MI6 spy Gareth Williams, 31, was found in a North Face holdall with the zips padlocked on the outside and the key inside with his corpse at his flat in Pimlico, London, a week after he was last seen alive
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk
 
davids said:
So WUMing is just pointing out that the US is making fortunes out of this situation and my continued questions of why nobody in the west is remotely interested in any type of ceasefire?
Even Macron spoke of the dangers of painting Putin into a corner very early on in this and now Biden is talking about an "off ramp" for Russia. But probably they are also just WUMs. On with the slaughter...your kettle boiled yet?
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If you're going to start talking about ceasefires again, can I take that to mean you've FINALLY decided whether or not you want to condemn or not condemn Zelensky and the UKR government for refusing to cede Crimea, Donbass and all points between as a condition of any ceasefire?

Why can't you condemn Putin's aggression?

Why can't you simply state that Russia's invasion is illegal?

Why can't you acknowledge that rounding up civilians to beat, rape and murder them before burying them in mass graves, as Russian forces have repeatedly done, is wrong?

Why must you instead WUM, by demanding that UKR should meekly ACCEPT all the above and refuse to defend themselves?

You talk relentlessly about playgrounds and I cannot help but wonder if you were bullied as a child - your insistence on surrender and appeasement in the face of bullying, along with the pathological refusal to even face the truth of the bully's actions, paints a picture of someone suffering from a victim trauma that prevents them from even looking a bully on the eye and saying "you're a bully".

I feel a bitter mixture of pity and disgust for you. You would rather see Ukrainian civilians degraded, tortured, mutilated and murdered in their thousands than face your deep-seated fear of bullies.
 
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