Current Affairs The General Election

[catcherintherye]

It certainly wont be a landslide if they do win.

Let's see how many their own party machinery are able to round up and get to the polling stations. I have huge doubts they can get them there in sufficient numbers.

This is not spoken about much. Their vote base is older and more working class than before. In the cold winter they are much less likely to vote (and working class people are full stop). So we will see.

A small majority is also big problems. He has a major issue in terms of the time scale of getting the next phase of the deal through in a year. They will have to surrender far more in the next phase anyway, never mind to do it all in a year.

We have seen how committed he is to a No deal last year (i.e. not very) and there's absolutely no way he can get all of his party to vote on that basis.

So essentially, a year of begging and grovelling the EU to bail him out a bit more, he's already surrendered Ireland, he will surrender a lot more. Especially now he has to look tough on the NHS to Trump.

All this with a small majority, and people think Tory MP's are not going to kick off majorly again?

The next government will not last 5 years.

 

[catcherintherye]

Because it'd split the Tory Party forever. Do you see the Brexiteers amongst them EVER countenancing that?

No but that's her negotiating position. I'm surprised she hasn't said that yet (similar to Sturgeon). It's Johnson's issue then isn't it. How badly does he want to be in power? If she stuck to it, Johnson would try to put it through for them. I don't think he cares if he destroys the Tories forever as a result, thats the direction they are going anyway, he just presses the fast forward button and gets to play with the train set for a bit longer.

 

[dholliday]

@davek @catcherintherye

you're probably aware of this already, but in case not (or anyone reading is not):

A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the Conservative one. The websites did not always give the same advice, which Michael Savage, political editor the The Guardian said had the potential to confuse voters. One of the websites - GetVoting, set up by Best for Britain - was accused of giving bogus advice in Labour/Conservative marginal seats. The website, which had links to the Liberal Democrat party, was criticised for advising pro-remain voters to back the Liberal Democrats when doing so risked pulling voters away from Labour candidates and enabling the Conservative candidate to gain most votes.

 

[davek]

No but that's her negotiating position. I'm surprised she hasn't said that yet (similar to Sturgeon). It's Johnson's issue then isn't it. How badly does he want to be in power? If she stuck to it, Johnson would try to put it through for them. I don't think he cares if he destroys the Tories forever as a result, thats the direction they are going anyway, he just presses the fast forward button and gets to play with the train set for a bit longer.

I dont think it is Johnson's decision. He's a creature of far larger forces. To surrender Brexit would be the ultimate treason fr that lot. Theyld rather go for another election and take their chances.

 

[davek]

@davek @catcherintherye

you're probably aware of this already, but in case not (or anyone reading is not):

A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the Conservative one. The websites did not always give the same advice, which Michael Savage, political editor the The Guardian said had the potential to confuse voters. One of the websites - GetVoting, set up by Best for Britain - was accused of giving bogus advice in Labour/Conservative marginal seats. The website, which had links to the Liberal Democrat party, was criticised for advising pro-remain voters to back the Liberal Democrats when doing so risked pulling voters away from Labour candidates and enabling the Conservative candidate to gain most votes.

It's imperfect. What else is there to say?

 

[dholliday]

It's imperfect. What else is there to say?

It's not just imperfect...the LibDems may be looking to fool their voters. Hence, tactical voting is risky.

 

[davek]

It's not just imperfect...the LibDems may be looking to fool their voters. Hence, tactical voting is risky.

I;m sure people can do their own (easy) math.

 

[catcherintherye]

I dont think it is Johnson's decision. He's a creature of far larger forces. To surrender Brexit would be the ultimate treason fr that lot. Theyld rather go for another election and take their chances.

The forces behind the scenes of the Tories are far more pro-European/Pro-EU but they have lost control of the process.

They may call for another election. It would be a risky move though. You'd also have to say, that pretty much all the other parties would have something to gain from putting a couple of motions down. The first would be to say that a People's vote will be called. The 2nd to say if a deal is not negotiated by the end of the transition period (Ie 2020) then revoke becomes the legal position.

How far domestic cooperation could be guaranteed would be difficult, but getting those things through, and potentially choose an adequate time to have an election would probably make sense. I don't think they will get the election on the terms they wanted anymore.

 

[twoblue]

Latest ICM poll has the gap at 6%. I think that'll close as the next two days or so pass by. And many of the serfs pledging to vote Try will simply abstain. And, as you say, tactical voting too.

Hung parliament. Said that for months.

This for me would be the ideal result. I think corbyn, Swinson and johnson will lose their posts as no one could argue they have won the election m and hopefully everyone can see a bit of sense.
Tories won’t have dup to rely on.
Country would have to have another referdeum and everybody knows the score. There will be no going back after this one.

 

[catcherintherye]

@davek @catcherintherye

you're probably aware of this already, but in case not (or anyone reading is not):

A number of tactical voting websites were set up in an attempt to help voters choose the candidate in their constituency who would be best placed to beat the Conservative one. The websites did not always give the same advice, which Michael Savage, political editor the The Guardian said had the potential to confuse voters. One of the websites - GetVoting, set up by Best for Britain - was accused of giving bogus advice in Labour/Conservative marginal seats. The website, which had links to the Liberal Democrat party, was criticised for advising pro-remain voters to back the Liberal Democrats when doing so risked pulling voters away from Labour candidates and enabling the Conservative candidate to gain most votes.

A lot of the tactical voting websites are problematic. I read somewhere it doesn't have to be followed to the letter. if 37% of voters follow instructions it starts to have an impact.

There will always be intepretations where it should be done. I'm probably at the cautious end really. However I do think, for the likes of Dominic Raab, Johnson and Duncan Smith the temptation to move them out, for just a handful of voters really (just say a 5-10% split) will be very tempting.

 

[Eggs]

Have to agree with this. Highlight how many nurses have left the profession. Highlight the amount of junior doctor vacancies there are and the inevitable lack of Consultants that'll lead too. Highlight the hatred of the Tories from the people who work in the health service. They've failed to do any of this.

...things like that resonate. Corbyn should’ve showed pictures of food banks in their debate rather than obfuscated NHS documents. Gave specific examples of kids in poverty, named people who suffer because of NHS waiting times and social care.

i think Labour’s campaign has been a bit brainless, the Tories won’t believe their luck. Let’s hope they pick up in the last few days.

 

[catcherintherye]

This for me would be the ideal result. I think corbyn, Swinson and johnson will lose their posts as no one could argue they have won the election m and hopefully everyone can see a bit of sense.
Tories won’t have dup to rely on.
Country would have to have another referdeum and everybody knows the score. There will be no going back after this one.

Yes I agree, if it's a hung Parliament it's hard not to say a motion being put to have a People's vote before anything else happens. I suspect even the DUP would not stand in the way of it.

 

[Pudsey]

I think any savvy person in any given constituency would know who to vote for if remain was their main concern. Reliance on such websites is a real sign of our times.

 

[davek]

The forces behind the scenes of the Tories are far more pro-European/Pro-EU but they have lost control of the process.

They may call for another election. It would be a risky move though. You'd also have to say, that pretty much all the other parties would have something to gain from putting a couple of motions down. The first would be to say that a People's vote will be called. The 2nd to say if a deal is not negotiated by the end of the transition period (Ie 2020) then revoke becomes the legal position.

How far domestic cooperation could be guaranteed would be difficult, but getting those things through, and potentially choose an adequate time to have an election would probably make sense. I don't think they will get the election on the terms they wanted anymore.

Those forces are inside AND outside parliament. There are a lot of interested parties determined to have a bonfire of legislation on what they can and cant do. Labour laws will be re-written. Taiwan is an apt and oft-talked of model.

 

[catcherintherye]

Those forces are inside AND outside parliament. There are a lot of interested parties determined to have a bonfire of legislation on what they can and cant do. Labour laws will be re-written. Taiwan is an apt and oft-talked of model.

I think that fringe of the party have been placed well and truly back in the box. We've hardly seen any of Rees Mogg in this election. They know how unpopular he and what he stands for are.

They promised a bonanza of spending and that Labour regulations will remain unchanged, or get even tighter.

They are boxed in.

The British state, will quite quickly get to grips with them, tell them that their right wing fantasies are over and it's time to get on with running the country in a sensible manner.