Thanks for an insightful response.
I think the question is really layered. I spoke to my barber a couple of weeks back, who runs a couple of stores. He didn't have a positive word to say about the Conservatives and particularly Boris Johnson. He said, as a business owner he didn't like a lot of Corbyn's more radical ideas but at least he cared about people, and that Johnson is just a privileged spoilt boy. The guy himself came from a working class background but has done very well for himself. He also said he has no idea who votes for them, as nobody he knows has a good word to say about them.
In a roundabout way, I do think age is very important in this discussion. Most people under 50, particularly those under 35 hardly know a Tory. They are a very niche group. However you also have to accept that in terms of over 55's, they are mass support even amongst more working class elements of society. The benefit to the Tories is that it's a reliable section of the vote base, the downside is that it's an ever decreasing section.
In specific areas, I think the link was really stretched under Blair. He prioritised more middle class areas for narrow tactical reasons, and was too cautious in redistributing wealth to such areas. I do think there was a large sense of betrayal from these areas.
Corbyn has done some good stuff to address it. Part of his issue though, is that the support base is centred in cities, amongst younger people. People often look at students as all middle class, but most of them aren't. Most rent a bedroom in a house and will work on top of studying. It's probably unfair to call them middle class, but their priorities are very different to many outside of the hub.
What they probably haven't recognised, is Brexit Labour supporters held the keys to this election. This group, will essentially cost Labour the election if it's lost. More tactical effort should have been made to contact and try to keep them on board. It's a much harder, longer process though.
As for why we are losing? Part of it is the media. There is an enormous bias here. It plays a factor. However it does need to be "priced in" if you are Labour. It's actually why I think removing Corbyn to get someone the media like is foolhardy. Whoever leads Labour is going to be tarnished. They had a Jewish leader before, and slaughtered him because he couldn't eat a bacon sandwich. Thats the level of discourse we have. Labour will never win on wanting a friendly media.
Look, we have to reflect honestly what we face. Since 1997 there has been a growing right of centre vote. We won under Blair because the tories were woeful and got between 8-9 million votes. They now get 12-13 million. The right wing vote was previously very split, and has come home to one party at the last 2 elections, coalescing around the Brexit question. Once this question goes, many who lent a vote will go back to not voting and I imagine the wider splits open again.
Under Corbyn we have added votes. We'd also seen a reversal of the trend to see votes moving from centre-to left to centre- to right. The problem is, Labour has not been able to dominate the centre left position quite as well while the right has been more unified.
So whatever happens at the election on Thursday, Labour has done a lot of things well. Personally I think they've not been ambitious enough between elections. They are still stuck in the mode of electionism and haven't fundamentally altered the fabric of the Labour Party enough (or at all). There is too much caution going on. Corbin has tried to govern like an orthodox leader which he has neither the skills and reputation for. He should have made more explicit his anti-establishment credentials. It would have probably made what is a radical manifesto more palatable and believable to people.
Lets see though. It will be a close game. A tiny % of voters probably stand between Corbyn being labelled a loser, or arguably the greatest leader Labour have had. He's probably somewhere in the middle.
