Current Affairs The General Election

[catcherintherye]

I shall keep clutching at those straws until the bitter end, Eggs

So I am postung this fellow’s thoughts.





“they aim to demoralise....let it harden your resolve instead”.

Some truth in this, but other bits less so.

The spread of polls, is worse than at an equivalent in 2017. However I suspect the point we need to get to to stand still is also beyond 2.5% (at the last election ) and could be as near as 8%.

I do think pollsters make some efforts to acknowledge new voters. They do include them I think. However on weightings they are still weighing them down very heavily. At one point, a 2017 style result would lead to a 6% increase from Con-Lab. When you factor in 9 million extra people have registered, 6 million younger people (and removing the standard 37% re registrations) it stands at around 4 million. This is 14/15% of the vote share. I don't know how far pollsters have re-organised for this.

Over the weekend I saw 2 polls showed Labour closing the lead, 2 showing the tories opening up a lead, and 1 poll showing Tories holding an enormous 15% lead.

I'll be honest, it's the hardest election to call I've seen since following them. You have two wildly unpopular leaders. Johnson's rankings are as bad as (if not worse) than Major in 97, Brown in 2010 or Miliband in 2015. Corbyn is noticeably worse than him (though the gap is closing). It's a winter election, and we have no real precedent to what it does to turnout. Will young people vote? Will middle aged/old people vote? What impact will Labour ground operation have, how far can the late Vote Leave swing we saw work for the cons with spamming of Facebook messages etc?

You have an enormous amount of undecided voters as well. Enormously high. How far will often died in the wool Labour voters turn to Tories as the election close. How far will lifelong Tory voters either switch to Lib Dems or to vote? To what extent is tactical voting going to be a thing. I saw somewhere that just 40k tactical voters could swing up to 50 Tory seats? Are enough Labour/Lib Dem voters prepared to do that?

Likewise, will enough BXP/Tory voters vote for the other to win more seats off Labour in the north?

I could go on, there's a multitude of issues. The trend has been for stability, and even Conservatives slightly recovering of the weekend. I wonder when the debate (which Corbyn did well in) starts to kick in if there may be a swing back to Labour? They did very well in the last week of polling last year.

The pollsters were on average 5.5% out last time in 2017 on Labour. It's erroneously close to the 6% figure mentioned above on turnout models. (Some where even further out, 12-13% or so and if you remove Survations poll you are likely looking at 7% out). That will be the Labour hope. There are some grounds for it, namely the pollsters have treated 2017 as a bit of a one off.

It's a wide spread. I think the Tories in general are probably good for around 340. However it only takes one or two things to be out out of the 5/6 against them and that will slip into the hung Parliament territory.

 

[tsubaki]

The public are convinced by the arguments. The problem is that the leader has a lot of baggage, we have a particularly partisan media who can hone in on it, and historic failures of previous Labour administrations to tackle the ravages of the free-market system mean many of (the particularly) older voters are very wary of them.

The Tories to their credit have began peddling far more protectionist ideas as well (who can forget Javid's comments at the start of the campaign wanting to borrow and spend more than has been seen since the 70's).

The ideas of neo-liberalism are completely done though. They've been ab abject failure wherever they have been tried. There will be no return to those beliefs.

I disagree slightly here, in the idea that Corbyn has “a lot of baggage” and therefore the papers are just revealing it.

Everyone (certainly every politician) has baggage, the difference is that Corbyn’s is reported on with the very worst interpretation, constantly.

Take his “support of the IRA” for example. He has (at least IIRC) never supported the armed struggle, but is a republican and did repeatedly meet with people from SF, even when they were banned from the TV.

Meanwhile Claire Fox, whose RCP group (many of whom went with her to the BP and at least one of whom now works for Johnson himself) actually did support the armed struggle even into the 1990s and after bombings on the mainland, is apparently not someone who “supports terrorists”.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Yes. And, additionally, Labour members might want to consider whether castigating the middle ground, shifting, voters as stupid, wicked or both isn't particularly likely to gain their votes next time.

That's the thing mate, the Labour Party has to convince those middle class voters who would normally vote Tory but may now be swaying to vote for them, but when they're be called half - wits etc, then that's hardly going to endear them to Labour.

 

[Minimeister]

I disagree slightly here, in the idea that Corbyn has “a lot of baggage” and therefore the papers are just revealing it.

Everyone (certainly every politician) has baggage, the difference is that Corbyn’s is reported on with the very worst interpretation, constantly.

Take his “support of the IRA” for example. He has (at least IIRC) never supported the armed struggle, but is a republican and did repeatedly meet with people from SF, even when they were banned from the TV.

Meanwhile Claire Fox, whose RCP group (many of whom went with her to the BP and at least one of whom now works for Johnson himself) actually did support the armed struggle even into the 1990s and after bombings on the mainland, is apparently not someone who “supports terrorists”.

The gammons would rather people were still getting blown up whilst Boris waves a flag.

 

[dannyboy]

That's the thing mate, the Labour Party has to convince those middle class voters who would normally vote Tory but may now be swaying to vote for them, but when they're be called half - wits etc, then that's hardly going to endear them to Labour.

I think there's a case to be made that Labour actually does quite well with middle class voters. Worryingly, it seems like it will be those northern working class towns that will give Johnson his majority.

 

[Minimeister]

I hope the next leader of the Labour party is female. It's about time and it could work perfectly against this government and media. They need to play more like the Tories...

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

I think there's a case to be made that Labour actually does quite well with middle class voters. Worryingly, it seems like it will be those northern working class towns that will give Johnson his majority.

I was thinking more about actual Labour voters having a pop mate, rather than the party itself.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

That's the thing mate, the Labour Party has to convince those middle class voters who would normally vote Tory but may now be swaying to vote for them, but when they're be called half - wits etc, then that's hardly going to endear them to Labour.

'Serfs' is Dave's latest missive lol

 

[Tubey]

I hope the next leader of the Labour party is female. It's about time and it could work perfectly against this government and media. They need to play more like the Tories...

They just need to appeal to more than about 1 in 10 people who live here. I don't think the gender of the leader makes an ounce of difference to that if the ideology remains the same.

 

[catcherintherye]

I disagree slightly here, in the idea that Corbyn has “a lot of baggage” and therefore the papers are just revealing it.

Everyone (certainly every politician) has baggage, the difference is that Corbyn’s is reported on with the very worst interpretation, constantly.

Take his “support of the IRA” for example. He has (at least IIRC) never supported the armed struggle, but is a republican and did repeatedly meet with people from SF, even when they were banned from the TV.

Meanwhile Claire Fox, whose RCP group (many of whom went with her to the BP and at least one of whom now works for Johnson himself) actually did support the armed struggle even into the 1990s and after bombings on the mainland, is apparently not someone who “supports terrorists”.

Yes that is all fair. The thing is though, if you are a Labour leader (rightly or wrongly) you have to accept the impartiality of the media and the BBC. Corbyn should have issued legal letters on this nonsense long ago. On both the IRA stuff and the anti-semitism nonsense and put it to bed.

He has made the presumption that people are intelligent enough to see he's clearly not a supporter of the armed struggled in Ireland (having regularly denounced it) and been one of the most supportive MP's in Parliament to all minorities including those from the Jewish community. Unfortunately politics doesn't work like that.

I will defend Corbyn to the end, but objectively the party probably needs a cleaner face at the helm.

He has made very little effort to fundamentally shift the essence of the Labour Party. Without doing that, it remains a party that looks chaotic with a leader who's so at odds with the top ends of the party.

 

[Tubey]

I shall keep clutching at those straws until the bitter end, Eggs

So I am postung this fellow’s thoughts.





“they aim to demoralise....let it harden your resolve instead”.

My current thinking is Labour will get a late 'Underdog' surge and get it closer than what polls are currently suggesting, but still have a majority of 20+.

 

[catcherintherye]

They just need to appeal to more than about 1 in 10 people who live here. I don't think the gender of the leader makes an ounce of difference to that if the ideology remains the same.

In fairness mate, they added 1/10 voters to their vote base at the last election!

 

[catcherintherye]

My current thinking is Labour will get a late 'Underdog' surge and get it closer than what polls are currently suggesting, but still have a majority of 20+.

Thats the one thing that probably concerns the tories at this stage. Cold day, older voters, increasingly working class vote base, who think it's in the bag and don't bother to turn out.

 

[Tubey]

In fairness mate, they added 1/10 voters to their vote base at the last election!

I mean actually appeal to them though, not just gain votes from people holding their nose doing so.

The only reason this election is somewhat close is because the Tories have been dreadful for a decade in power and because of Brexit division lines. In a 'normal' climate the Tories win landslide after landslide against this version of Labour IMO.

 

[Tubey]

Thats the one thing that probably concerns the tories at this stage. Cold day, older voters, increasingly working class vote base, who think it's in the bag and don't bother to turn out.

I don't think this benefits Corbyn. That's actually the problem he has.