Disgruntledgoat
Player Valuation: £50m
I don't see Cheese on Votes on the list...
Current Affairs The General Election
- Thread starter summerisle
- Start date
- Status
Disgruntledgoat
Player Valuation: £50m
Unless Scottish Labour (essentially a Blairite operation) do something really stupid like telling Lab voters to vote con/Lib Dem to stop the SNP (as they did at the last election) the SNP stand a very good chance of as you say taking upwards of 10 seats off the Tories.
...I appreciate the numbers were stacked against them, but they are like sheep driving themselves to the abattoir. I’ve seen a few SNP MPs are saying they will vote against the Bill, one said we ‘have the rat in a trap, I have no idea why we’d want to release him’.
History suggests it’s harder to get the Labour vote out in bad weather. More young people vote Labour, yet December is when students will be away from the constituency they’re registered at.
The positives are the Tory’s might lose a few Scottish seats and the Brexit Party will take some of the Tory vote, but i’m sure Johnson will have already got the Brexit Party on board.
This is total cringe but the 'nationalise Greggs' made me chuckle.
Yes there's a lot in that eggs. I do have to ask though, why the SNP posited bringing the one line motion in the first place? That would have allowed a simple majority, and with Lib Dem support even with some SNP rebels and all of Labour it would have passed.
I happen to think the above is changing a little bit. Traditionally thats definitely the case, however demographically the Con vote has become older, more working class and situated in more remote areas. If there is ice (or indeed wet/snow) then I do wonder if given those dynamics it will impact Labour as much as people suggest?
It doesn't help Labour's chance in terms of a canvassing operation. Again the twist is though, they/we have a lot more students members who can do that sort of stuff far more in the week.
I see this as a very open election. Part of the problem is, our media is appalling. They have learnt nothing from 2017 and continue to provide an analysis which is greatly out of keeping with the reality of events.
None of you know what will happen.
spectateur
Player Valuation: £30m
That is the biggest problem with the FPTP electoral system. Safe seats. No fair representation.
summerisle
The rain, it raineth every day
Looks like the youth vote are energised.
magicjuan
Player Valuation: £60m
None of them know either
I'll try not to go on too much (as I have a tendency too) but I think this election is very open,
Nearly 50% of people identify as swinging voters. You also have a winter election (difficulties around getting to polling stations) and people seem very apathetic to elections, politicians and the democratic process currently. Alongside enormous methodological difficulties which I've noted previously (they are far too onerous on labour and don't know how to adjust to a swing model thats not a simple 2 party swing model) you have a recipe for a very open election.
The challenges for the Conservatives are numerous.The categories they have can be broadly grouped into, 1) Conservative retainers going to Lib Dems, 2) Conservative leaders switching back to BXP (or not voting), 3) Lab Remainers moving back from Lib Dems to Labour and 4) Lab leavers either not voting or returning back to Labour. To me they need to get 3, if not 4 of the above to stand a chance of securing a majority. Not impossible by any stretch, but for me very challenging.
The polls, when drilled down are showing certain things. Firstly that marginals are not reflecting the headline national figure. The top 60 Lab-Con marginals show a 4% move to labour (yet a 10% swing to Con is shown overall). Either the marginal polling is wrong (very unlikely) the national polling is wrong, or the Cons are building leads in inefficient places. If they pile votes up in Con Leave areas, it has very limited uses, especially if they lose con remain votes to Lib Dems.
Private polling for Cummins suggested they were at 287 seats, and I believe that was from the national data (not the regional inbalances suggested below). If the numbers are anything close to that, again the Tories are in a lot of trouble, and are gambling on the country piling in behind Johnson after his master stroke of a deal. I think thats their gamble anyway. And it is a gamble.
Reports also suggest Lab leavers are not really shifting to Johnson. You have to also weigh in that 80% of the Lib Dem target seats are Con Seats, and you can see where their focus will be in terms of pragmatic choices.
As for Labour, the reality is the PLP didn't want Corbyn to have a chance to fight this election. It's a bit of a nightmare for them and they are terrified (or some are) that he can catch the mood again, and potentially win some more seats (on the 244) and do enough to remain in charge. Their hope was the ECJ report on anti-Semitism would have finished him in the New Year. The truth is it will have far less importance if he has the momentum of a good electoral performance.
So overall a very open election. Just as May found early into her campaign that events overcame here, Johnson could well find the same quite quickly if he doesn't get off to a good start. I'd be hard pressed to call much, other than to say I think Labour will do better than the polls show (lots of shy Corbyn voters) and the Lib Dems will win seats off the Tories. I would say the tories may have the most seats in a hung Parliament, and may look to form a gov with lib Dems.
Corbyn and SNP may be my bet though of having the most seats combined. Bring it on.
Nearly 50% of people identify as swinging voters. You also have a winter election (difficulties around getting to polling stations) and people seem very apathetic to elections, politicians and the democratic process currently. Alongside enormous methodological difficulties which I've noted previously (they are far too onerous on labour and don't know how to adjust to a swing model thats not a simple 2 party swing model) you have a recipe for a very open election.
The challenges for the Conservatives are numerous.The categories they have can be broadly grouped into, 1) Conservative retainers going to Lib Dems, 2) Conservative leaders switching back to BXP (or not voting), 3) Lab Remainers moving back from Lib Dems to Labour and 4) Lab leavers either not voting or returning back to Labour. To me they need to get 3, if not 4 of the above to stand a chance of securing a majority. Not impossible by any stretch, but for me very challenging.
The polls, when drilled down are showing certain things. Firstly that marginals are not reflecting the headline national figure. The top 60 Lab-Con marginals show a 4% move to labour (yet a 10% swing to Con is shown overall). Either the marginal polling is wrong (very unlikely) the national polling is wrong, or the Cons are building leads in inefficient places. If they pile votes up in Con Leave areas, it has very limited uses, especially if they lose con remain votes to Lib Dems.
Private polling for Cummins suggested they were at 287 seats, and I believe that was from the national data (not the regional inbalances suggested below). If the numbers are anything close to that, again the Tories are in a lot of trouble, and are gambling on the country piling in behind Johnson after his master stroke of a deal. I think thats their gamble anyway. And it is a gamble.
Reports also suggest Lab leavers are not really shifting to Johnson. You have to also weigh in that 80% of the Lib Dem target seats are Con Seats, and you can see where their focus will be in terms of pragmatic choices.
As for Labour, the reality is the PLP didn't want Corbyn to have a chance to fight this election. It's a bit of a nightmare for them and they are terrified (or some are) that he can catch the mood again, and potentially win some more seats (on the 244) and do enough to remain in charge. Their hope was the ECJ report on anti-Semitism would have finished him in the New Year. The truth is it will have far less importance if he has the momentum of a good electoral performance.
So overall a very open election. Just as May found early into her campaign that events overcame here, Johnson could well find the same quite quickly if he doesn't get off to a good start. I'd be hard pressed to call much, other than to say I think Labour will do better than the polls show (lots of shy Corbyn voters) and the Lib Dems will win seats off the Tories. I would say the tories may have the most seats in a hung Parliament, and may look to form a gov with lib Dems.
Corbyn and SNP may be my bet though of having the most seats combined. Bring it on.
Albert ????
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
The difference is that Boris will attend any televised Leaders debate and wipe the floor with Corbyn.....
magicjuan
Player Valuation: £60m
Fair analysis and I agree with the most part, but to me the salient point is wether it's GE campaigning or Brexit campaigning. As I noted before I think on GE stuff Labour can gain a lot but, as with the referendum and immigration, if the media make it just about Brexit then chaos will reign.
- Status