Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Am I crazy or is Trump refusing to debate just an AWFUL strategic move for him?
fivethirtyeight.com's take this morning was insightful:
- Trump has lost every general election debate he's participated in, as measured by before/after polls.
- If he's ill, it'll show visually and in what he says. Reports suggest he sounded ill on the call to Fox Business this morning, and that he said nuttier stuff than usual.
Purportedly the campaign has backtracked and will push the debates back a week, but my opinion is that skipping the debates is rational. Their best bet is probably to go on a full-on Hunter-Biden-and-other-dirt offensive in the last ten days and hope they can disqualify enough mail-in ballots in the courts to win.
The wider Biden's lead becomes, the less I think that the courts will be inclined to hear Trump's arguments. Even in the more conservative states, I don't see judges putting themselves in the position of overturning an electoral landslide on technicalities.
If it's close electorally after counting the main-in ballots, that's a different story.