Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

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It is actually crazy how few votes it would take to change this from a Trump win to a Biden landslide and visa versa

It's certainly true that the Republicans had an electoral college advanatge in 2016, as the Dems did in 2012 & 2008. There seems to be a lot of banking this will be the same aagin, and there does appear to be some advanatge for Trump.

What I find interesting though, is how quickly it flips. A couple of % points the other way and Biden is winning the likes of Georgia and Texas.

Obama won 360 seats in 2008 with a 7.3% majority. Poll of polls has it just over 8% currently. You can't assume that it would be the same but it's a guide. From around 3% (I sense around 2.7% is around the tipping point from Biden to Trump) to 7.3% is the difference between a narrow Trump win and a huge Biden win. If he keeps pulling further ahead on the polls the EC will start to work iuncreasingly favourably for Biden. It starts to become a question of not whether he wins, but how humiliating a defeat it will be for Trump.
 
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