Current Affairs Palestinian Elections

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Missile Watch: 5 rockets launched last night - 2 failed to clear the border, 2 were shot down by the Israelis, and 1 fell in open country. Once again there was no armed response by the IDF, but after the last two missiles were shot down they closed the fishing zone off the Gaza coast, meaning that yet again it is the ordinary people who pay the price for their leaders' senseless belligerency.

There was an interview with Nasser al-Qudwa at the weekend; I missed it so am unable to give a context to some of his statements. These were the most interesting bits.

Mr Qudwa said his Freedom list wanted to change the status quo of poor governance, legal inequality and diminished freedom of expression after 15 years of Fatah rule.

“It’s going to be sweaty. It might even be bloody. We have to be prepared for all difficulties that might face us. But the bottom line is this: we don’t have a choice. Things reached a point where we either go down the drain or we stand up and say: enough is enough.”

The fate of any Palestinian politician found guilty of corruption would lie in the hands of the Palestinian parliament, which has been defunct for more than a decade but could play a more vital role in the political scene after the legislative elections.

"Of course there are people above the law in the Fatah government."

The road ahead for the first Palestinian legislative elections in 15 years remains murky as the Palestinian Authority insists they will not be held if Israel refuses to allow voting in East Jerusalem.

“With or without elections, things have already changed in the street. People broke the barrier of fear. For the first time in a long time, there is a discussion of political issues and new government."


Regarding cancelling the elections, which is likely to happen this week, Jordan's Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, visited Ramallah on Thursday. Jordanian sources confirmed that the kingdom is concerned that Hamas participation, let alone a victory, in the election will strengthen the position of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. This was the second Jordanian visit to the Muqata in Ramallah to exert pressure on Abbas to cancel the elections.
 
Missile Watch: None last night, but there were a number of incendiary balloons.

As has been increasingly obvious for a couple of weeks:

The Palestinian leadership has informed Egypt, Jordan and Qatar of its intention to postpone indefinitely the general elections if Israel doesn't announce by Thursday evening that it will allow the vote to take place in Jerusalem. A meeting of various factions, including Hamas, has been arranged for then.

Abbas has the backing of most of his Fatah group for this decision, but not all - some officials have threatened to resign if the elections are called off.

If the decision is announced, bear in mind these reactions from Fatah's political opponents, as they probably won't be given much prominence in any UK coverage:

Hamas: "We will not be part of any decision to postpone the elections. We call on the Palestinian Authority to honour the agreement reached in Cairo to hold the elections".

Hamas leader abroad, Khaled Mashaal: "There is no justification for delaying or cancelling the Palestinian elections".

Mohammad Dahlan's Future List: "Delaying the elections is a crime. Those who seek to delay the elections want to spread despair among the Palestinians and perpetuate the split between the West Bank and Gaza Strip".

Nour Odeh (Frredom List) "A decision to cancel elections is imminent. This is an attempt to make the status quo of stagnation & internal failure permanent. Using Jerusalem as an excuse is also cynical: Israel must not be granted the power to veto our right to hold elections".

Most tellingly, Moussa Abu Marzouk, Hamas' chief negotiator with Fatah: "The split in Fatah is the real reason behind the postponement of the elections. This is what Fatah leaders told us".

There are rumours that at Thursday's meeting Abbas will propose an emergency unity government, led by himself, of course. Under this arrangement, Fatah and Hamas would hold onto their respective territories, with the possibility of the PA returning to Gaza to resume administrative control, while Hamas maintains its political role and, of course, security control and its armed wing. That's the same Hamas that mustered 8% in the latest opinion poll .

Even if true, it remains to be seen whether that would be enough to assuage Hamas's overall ambitions.

My thoughts are with the 2,546,449 registered voters, on the brink of being betrayed yet again by their political leaders.
 
Missile Watch: Two fired last night, both failed to clear the border.

Fourteen independent lists have sent a letter to President Mahmoud Abbas in which they emphasised the importance of implementing the presidential decree to hold the elections on their scheduled dates, as they are 'a fundamental and long-awaited right that must be implemented for political and national reasons, and a commitment to the unbridled desire of the people'.

More than 90% of the electorate support the elections.

The letter stated that the message was sent after a meeting, called by the Freedom List on Monday, that stressed the importance of 'renewing the legitimacy of all Palestinian institutions and pumping new blood into their veins to make them able to face the grave challenges that threaten the Palestinian cause'.
It went on, "We all have a duty to strive to hold elections despite the occupation, and to adopt alternatives that turn this issue into a battle with the occupation in order to confirm the Palestinian right to Jerusalem, the crown jewel and the eternal capital of the State of Palestine."

The letter was signed by the following lists: Freedom (Qudwa), Future (Dahlan), Loyalty and Building, Enough, Returnees, Homeland, Palestinian Future, People's Voice, Independents, Justice and Building, Murabitun, Efficiency, My Youth Dignity, People's Pulse.

At the latest count, 29 of the 36 lists have stated publicly that they want the elections to go ahead.
 
Jibril Rajoub, secretary-general of the Fatah Central Committee, the faction’s highest decision-making body, has today said, "The Palestinian elections will be held on time. Tomorrow we will discuss ways of putting pressure on Israel to allow the vote in Jerusalem".

Rajoub has more to lose than most if the elections are cancelled, having played the main role in convincing Abbas to hold the elections, as well as being the engineer of the agreement with Hamas on how they should proceed. He was hoping to take credit for ending the Fatah-Hamas dispute, reuniting the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and organising the first general elections in 15 years.

He fancies himself as the successor to Abbas and has built power bases in Ramallah and Hebron, and was hoping that the Fatah-Hamas rapprochement would bolster his standing with the public. Now he fears that the cancellation of the elections would destroy the agreement he reached with Hamas leaders over the past eight months of talks in Turkey, Qatar and Egypt.

Many others in the Fatah leadership are keen to see the elections cancelled - some of them never wanted them in the first place. Rivals to Rajoub are also keen to see his influence diminished and his reputation damaged. A senior Fatah official said, “The cancellation of the elections will be seen as a serve blow to Rajoub because they are his baby.”

Hussein al-Sheikh, head of the PA General Authority for Civil Affairs, and Majed Faraj, head of the PA’s General Intelligence Service, were amongst those opposed to Rajoub’s efforts to achieve “national reconciliation” with Hamas and hold new elections under the current circumstances.
Sheikh and Faraj, along with some veteran members of the Fatah Central Committee, are also said to be wary of Rajoub’s growing influence over Abbas.

It's clear that while cancelling the elections may enable Abbas to cling on to power it will only intensify the crisis in Fatah and alienate some of the faction’s senior Abbas loyalists, like Jibril Rajoub - losing him would arguably be a bigger blow to the ruling party than losing Qudwa, and is likely to drive many more into the arms of Abbas’s rivals in Fatah, such as Qudwa and Dahlan.
 
Missile Watch - none last night. In response the IDF have re-opened the fishing zone off Gaza.

Critical meeting today with the big announcement to follow. Mahmoud Abbas's mood will not have been improved by the findings of a new opinion poll.


Hamas 32.4
Fatah 17.2
Future (Dahlan) 13.9
Freedom (Qudwa) 8.6
People's Pulse (PFLP) 4.1

Clearly a much better result in this poll for Hamas, and a disastrous one for Abbas's Fatah. A big discrepancy between this poll and the last - I understand this was an online poll, open to abuse. To further cast doubt on the accuracy of the poll, the presidential poll had Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh comfortably beating Barghouti, with Dahlan 3rd and Abbas 4th.

To further cast doubt on the accuracy of the poll, the presidential poll had Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh comfortably beating Barghouti, with Dahlan 3rd and Abbas 4th.

While it was amusing to see Hamas languishing on 8% in the last poll, the accuracy of it had to be questioned - their core support will always be higher than that. With all Palestinian opinion polls it's important to take into account that there is usually a big difference in the opinions of residents of cities and towns compared to villages, and again compared to refugee camps, so it depends on where the polling took place. Also, under an authoritarian regime such as in Gaza (or the West Bank) people are often afraid to give their honest opinion. Sadly, though, it could be that Hamas's missile campaign, portrayed as fighting the occupation, has shored up their support.

If the poll is in any way accurate, though, it does confirm Abbas's fears about the Fatah vote being split: the three factions combined almost reach 40%, and to that can be added votes for some of the smaller parties which would add at least another 5%. Hamas, in contrast, have no faction competing for their vote.
 
As predicted, Mahmoud Abbas last night indefinitely postponed the forthcoming legislative elections, blaming Israel for his decision. In a rambling speech he claimed the EU had informed him that Israel had told them that they wouldn't allow voting for 6,300 people to go ahead in Jerusalem. The EU have since denied this. During his speech he made some amusing references to Netanyahu - how Bibi, currently thrashing around like a fish on a hook as he tries to cling to power, must look enviously at his Palestinian counterpart, able to halt democracy in its tracks whenever the mood takes him.

Abbas said he will establish a national unity government where all Palestinian factions are represented until the Jerusalem issue is resolved. “If the Israelis say yes, we will have the elections tomorrow.”

As he has known all along, that is not going to happen.

A handful of smaller lists and most of the Fatah old guard have applauded the decision. 29 of the lists, though, say that if Jerusalem is the issue, fight for it and don’t let the Israelis have a veto on elections.


Mustafa Barghouti, head of the Mubadara list, said, “We should not give the occupiers a veto to stop the election process.”

“The cancellation of the elections is a new and big catastrophe for the Palestinians,” said Abdel Hakim Awad, a senior official with Mohammed Dahlan’s list. “It will have dire effects and serious consequences on the Palestinian people. The elections are a light at the end of the tunnel in order to unify the Palestinian people and end the division between the West Bank and Gaza Strip.”

Nayrouz Qarmout, also from Dahlan's list, said, “No one has the right to postpone the elections. Only those who are afraid of the results don’t want elections.”

The Qudwa/Barghouti list issued a statement: "Postponing elections is a huge setback that betrays the will of the people to hold elections. It also affirms the need for a deep and wide change in the political system. The cancellation of the elections will intensify the dispute between Fatah and Hamas."

Hamas, meanwhile, is using the decision to portray itself as the defender of Palestinian democracy.

“The decision to delay the elections is a coup against the path of partnership and national consensus. Our popular and national consensus cannot be pawned as collateral for the agenda of a faction.

We knew in advance that Fatah and the Palestinian Authority were going to disrupt the electoral process, due to other interests that have nothing to do with the issue of Jerusalem.

The Fatah movement and the Palestinian president bear full responsibility for this decision and its consequences.”

The final word should go to the young people of Palestine, once again let down by their political leaders. Their democracy movement said:

"The decision to postpone the elections, rather than hold them to confront Israel's occupation, must be scrutinised and held to account.
We believe that political participation, democratic and accountable representation is a fundamental right that can't and shouldn't be withheld.
The decision has been taken without any transparency, public consultation or debate."
 
Regarding the opinion poll I quoted yesterday, I've discovered that the media company who published it are based in Gaza and all I can say is that if I lived in Gaza and they were my only source of news, I'd be voting for Hamas as well!

Anyone who thinks our media are biased should take a look at the ones based in Gaza and the West Bank!

On a more serious note, Mahmoud Abbas has held talks with former PM Salam Fayyad - whether this is part of his attempt to form a unity government is unclear. I would be pleased to see Fayyad in any Palestinian government but if he felt he was undermined the last time he was in power I would suggest it was nothing compared to what he would face now.

One of Fayyad's former colleagues, Hanan Ashrawi, warned, "There's a real thirst for change...the postponement could lead to a great deal of anger. This could go so far as to have people refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the leadership or declare a civil disobedience."

Hamas are due to make a statement later today.
 
Gunmen attacked the home of Nizar Banat, a candidate on the Freedom and Dignity electoral list for the parliamentary elections, on Saturday night in the town of Dura, near Hebron. Banat is a prominent critic of the PA and Mahmoud Abbas, having spent time in the notorious Jericho jail as recently as December for criticising the government.

The attack came after his list published a statement on Friday night in which it said it had decided to ask EU courts, especially the EU Court of Human Rights, to order an immediate cessation of financial aid to the PA and launch an investigation into “the squandering of European taxpayer money.”

The ever-hypocritical Hamas were quick to denounce the attack as a crime and a "cowardly attack perpetrated by the same cowards who are frightened to face the electorate."

Ceasing to fund the PA is being mooted by a growing number of people and is something I'm in favour of, or rather linking payments to democratic values, such as holding elections. There are already clauses in place but the EU have not had the courage to implement them. After Abbas's decision last week - not to mention his criticism of the EU - the time has come to make any financial support contingent on elections and meaningful democratic progress. If a new election date is not announced quickly, funding should be redirected away from defunct PA institutions towards a broad range of grassroots political movements and civil society organisations.

Qatar do something similar with the money they send to Gaza: they pay a certain amount directly to grassroots organisations to ensure the money reaches them rather than giving Hamas the chance to squander it on more weapons and terrorist funding.

Another shooting took place near Nablus in the West Bank when 3 Jewish students were shot in a drive-by shooting, one critically injured, two seriously. This attack, according to Hamas, was not 'cowardly', but a 'heroic operation' and "a legitimate extension of the resistance of our Palestinian people in the West Bank, and we salute the heroes of the West Bank."

They went on to incite more violence by demanding that people "escalate the resistance in the face of the plans of the Temple groups that intend to storm the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the 28th of Ramadan, and to erupt in volcanoes of anger in the face of this criminal occupier who continues his oppression and aggression against our people."

Their friends Islamic Jihad joined in, praising the 'courageous operation' and describing it as 'a message in the name of the entire Palestinian people'.

Tensions are high enough after the cancellation of the elections. Democracy has been thwarted. The PA are clamping down on dissent. Next Sunday sees the Jewish celebratory Jerusalem Day coincide with Laylat al-Qadr, considered to be one of the holiest nights in the Islamic calendar. Nakba Day follows shortly after. Hamas and their allies are intent on fanning the flames.

Batten down the hatches. May could be a gruesome month.
 
Probably the only winners from the cancellation of the elections have been Hamas. They have castigated Abbas and Fatah as cowards, running away from democracy for fear of losing, while at the same time condemning Israel for their stance over Jerusalem. They accuse Abbas of caving in to Israel, painting themselves as the only true defenders of the city, hence their attempts this week to incite violence with calls for an intifada. Given they called their electoral list Jerusalem is our promise, a cynic might think they anticipated the current situation as soon as the elections were called.

While the election outcome would have been uncertain, it’s unlikely that Hamas would have won enough seats to forge a majority coalition, let alone a 'Hamas government'. The cancellation made Hamas seem more popular and thus legitimate: The impression that cancellation took place because Hamas would have won, as false as it is, gives Hamas new powerful arguments in future public discourse against the PA.

hamas.jpeg

The 2021 Hamas politburo.

Leader Yahya Sinwar, 4th from left, with rival Nizar Awadallah, 5th from left. There's a few other familiar faces but it's most notable for the presence for the first time of two women, and a rare photo of Marwan Issa, deputy head of Hamas' military wing, wearing a mask and peeping over the shoulders of his colleagues on the back row.

Very few of this crew were standing in the legislative elections, their list being made up mainly of people from the public service sectors who are well known in their communities but are part of the movement. Therefore, in the event of a unified PA government - which is what Hamas claim they want - what were this lot going to do with themselves? I couldn't see Yahya Sinwar retiring to his villa to play with his grandchildren. Or did they intend to stay in power under the flag of a PA government? How would that work when they differ so markedly from Fatah in their aims and beliefs?

While the 8% rating in the opinion poll probably underestimated their support - they tend to do better in small villages and refugee camps - it will have come as a warning to the party. Sinwar is well aware that after 15 years of Hamas rule, the organisation has little or nothing to present Gazans with, other than futile wars, abject poverty and a disconnect from the West Bank. The strategy of hiding under the cover of a unified PA government would, Hamas hope, have relieved them of the burden of administering Gaza and allow for the Strip’s economic redevelopment, including by eventually forcing a more substantial easing of Israeli restrictions - restoring PA governance would remove one key justification for Israel and Egypt's blockade of Gaza

To be fair, Hamas have shown some guile and a quiet willingness to compromise, notably with their 'tahdi'a' deal with Israel - an agreed period of calm on their part. Unfortunately, this pragmatism has been undermined by the indecision of the leadership which has allowed Islamic Jihad to operate freely in Gaza, while the recent missile campaign has once again shown their tendency to ditch any deal whenever it suits them.

The cancellation is not all good news for them. It's thought that Hamas saw the electoral process as a backdoor into the PLO, which would grant it greater influence and legitimacy within the Palestinian national movement. It didn't nominated senior cabinet members and didn't want prominent roles such as prime minister, foreign minister or president. This has as much to do with the movement’s desire to minimise Western concerns about its potential role as its bitter experience of governing Gaza over the past 15 years.

Hamas want to move towards political engagement with Europe, to end the EU’s no-contact policy, and to be delisted as a terrorist organisation. Some in the west, notably certain countries in the EU, hoped that a successful electoral process and Palestinian reunification, would convince Hamas that their aims could be achieved by peaceful methods rather than reverting to armed violence and terrorism. Others, notably Israel, legitimately argue that they cannot be trusted, that they oscillate between regular escalations of military confrontation and periods of quiet whenever it suits them, or depending on which camp holds sway over policy at the time, the militarists or the pragmatists.

The dilemma they face - and, remarkably given his history, Sinwar is regarded as a moderate compared to colleagues such as Awadallah and Issa - is that any genuine compromise of their core beliefs would probably lead to the disintegration of the party and the strengthening of the likes of Islamic Jihad. During the election campaign we frequently heard the hardline Fathi Hamad, 2nd from right front row, regularly extol Hamas’s support for armed resistance and Islamic claims over “historic Palestine”.
Similarly, prisoners minister Wasfi Kabaha has admitted that they would lose credibility if they get too close to Fatah: "Hamas doesn't recognise the Oslo Accords. Supporting Mahmoud Abbas is tantamount to suicide."

Any formal recognition of Israel's right to exist and any meaningful concessions would compromise its military capabilities and pose an existential threat to the organisation. Many within Hamas contend that were such concessions ever to be made Hamas as they know it would cease to exist.

While there was no chance of a 'Hamas government', they would have been part of a coalition 'unity government', and might have played the role of kingmaker – deciding which Fatah faction(s) to form a coalition government with, and which presidential candidate to throw its political weight behind.

These were the real reasons for Abbas calling off the elections. The better than expected performance in the polls of Dahlan's list, with Qudwa/Barghouti doing almost as well, mean that a Hamas/Dahlan/Qudwa coalition was possible, even if Abbas's Fatah finished as the largest party. For all their disagreements and acrimony the governments of both the PA and Israel share a worry that a Hamas alliance with one of the breakaway Fatah factions would expand the Islamic group’s presence and influence in the West Bank.

Even worse for Abbas were the ratings for the presidential election where not a single poll had him winning. Barghouti was already certain to run, while Dahlan would have been looking to run, probably as a unity candidate with the backing of Hamas, who weren't planning to put anyone forward. In such a race Abbas would finish 3rd, and in the event of a Dahlan victory he might even have been forced to flee to one of his luxury villas in Jordan or Bahrain!

A successful electoral process resulting in a viable unity government and Palestinian reunification would have vindicated 'moderate' Hamas figures who argue that political participation and a commitment to democratic principles can move their aims forward in a way that armed violence on its own cannot. With the cancellation of the elections it appears, at least in the short term, that Hamas are prepared to return to the use of violence to further their aims.
 
Other winners and losers from the cancellation.

Jordan and Egypt - winners. Both wanted a cancellation because Hamas's participation gives legitimacy to an Islamist party; not something either country wants to give the Muslim Brotherhood.

Israel - winners and losers. No doubt happy to see a cancellation as it is the best chance of maintaining the status quo. I can understand their caution given the danger posed by Hamas and Barghouti, but for me that is a typically short-sighted view. Palestinian elections will eventually take place, even if it's after the departure of Abbas, and Israel would be better off being on the right side of history by encouraging Palestinian democracy. Then again, the whole of their policy on the West Bank is short-sighted.

USA - Losers -The Biden administration's green light for cancelling the elections was a decision worthy of Donald Trump himself. Need I say more? The prospect of Hamas having a role in a unity government and Barghouti as president was obviously problematic for them, but their claim to be champions of democracy around the world has been shown to be disingenuous.

Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah - losers. Abbas has carried on as though it's business as usual this week, holding his regular government meetings and issuing orders as though nothing has happened. However, he has also ordered a clampdown on Fatah dissidents, as well as on Hamas operatives in the West Bank, particularly since the shooting of 3 Jewish students near Nablus, resulting in one death. Following the cancellation his reputation at home and abroad is in tatters and his legacy will be one of failure and corruption. He's also inflicted major damage on the reputation of his party, Fatah. While he still appears to have the backing of the security services, the splits in Fatah have only been exacerbated: as well as Qudwa and long-standing enemy Dahlan there are many more in Fatah newly disillusioned by the cancellation. I've no doubt that talks will be held with Barghouti - the only dissident not sacked from the party - but it#s hard to see how he can be appeased. Abbas's hopes of a unity government under his own presidency look doomed, instead an emboldened Hamas will endeavour to make the most of what they term Abbas's 'cowardice'.

The Palestinian Authority - loser. Whatever credibility it had, both domestically and internationally has been shattered. The people have lost even more respect for it, while foreign donors are left demanding the reinstatement of the elections, threatening to withhold funding.

The biggest losers are the Palestinian people. It’s not that election would have created revolutionary change; it is that there is little hope for change without election. The energy and optimism created by the planned election after 15 years were unmistakable: 93% of electorate and 36 parties registered, challenging the dominance of Fatah and Hamas. 39% of candidates were under the age of 40, and 29% were women. The wretched performances of Fatah and Hamas in government created a thirst for change. They have no popular mandate and are maintaining their grip over these territories through authoritarianism and corruption. Optimism has died, cancellation has led to widespread demoralisation.

Hamas have spent the time since the cancellation calling for, and trying to incite through rioting, murder and attempted murders, a 3rd intifada. Tonight they are again urging its West Bank supporters to rally at Al-Aqsa, to turn the 3rd most holy site in Islam into a 'battlefield', while Islamic Jihad call openly for stabbings, car rammings and shootings against Israelis, demanding a ‘Ramadan Intifada’. There are those who say the elections didn't matter, that democracy is 'impossible under occupation'. The reality is that their cancellation has left a vacuum which the men of violence are endeavouring to fill.
 
Zatara said:
Shocking scenes from the Palastinians in the media today.
Click to expand...
Tragic but all too predictable. There could be worse to come.

I'm hearing a tiny bit of commonsense has broken out with the Israeli police diverting today's Jewish Flag march so that it won't pass through the Muslim area. Won't go down well with the hard right.

One march has taken place:

 
peteblue said:
@BigMick , I’d never really looked at this thread but it has to be the most informative thread I’ve ever read on here....
Click to expand...
Thank you Pete. A big thanks to my wife for her detailed knowledge and for correcting my Arabic and Hebrew translations, especially the confusing idioms!

To be clear, the scenes we are currently witnessing would not have been happening if the elections had gone ahead. This is as much internal Palestinian politics, Hamas vs Fatah, as it is Palestinian/Israeli. Anyone who has even taken the merest peek at Palestinian media, both Gazan (controlled by Hamas) and the West Bank, (controlled by the PA), would have known what was going to happen as they try to outdo each other as 'defenders of Jerusalem'. Here, for instance, is one of Hamas's leading figures, Fathi Hamad.



That's typical of the 'leadership' the Palestinian people are still stuck with.
 
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