BigMick
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Given the dramatic developments in Gaza and Ramallah in the last 48 hours it is perhaps time to start a thread on the long awaited Palestinian elections, due later this year at the behest of Mahmoud Abbas, currently in the 16th year of his 4 year term as president of the Palestinian Authority. Tony Blair was our Prime Minister when the last elections were held so this is a tumultuous event for the beleaguered Palestinian people. It says a lot about the quality of leadership that they've been forced to endure that early opinion polls suggest that Hamas, who rule in Gaza, would win in the West Bank, while Fatah who, through the PA, rule in the West Bank, would win in Gaza. There is, though, a long way to go and things are happening all the time.
To begin in Gaza, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was yesterday controversially re-elected to his role just 24 hours after seeming to be deposed by Nizar Awadallah, one of Hamas' founders in the late 1980s. Awadallah was announced to have won by 7 votes but another round of voting declared Sinwar the winner.
Why was this important? Awadallah has close ties with the Iranian regime and was singled out by Tehran as the man they would like to see names as Hamas' military leader in Gaza, while Sinwar is closer to Egypt, who seek a peaceful solution to the conflict with Israel. Any move closer to Iran would have resulted in an escalation of terrorist activity and the almost certain withdrawal of financial support from Qatar, who pay most of the bills, just as almost happened last year when, fed up of Hamas' corruption and squandering of money, they were set to halt payments until an intervention from the Israeli government persuaded them to continue their support. It doesn't take an Einstein to work out why Israel would do that.
Another Hamas election to decide the political leadership is due to take place in the next week or two, with incumbent Ismail Haniyeh, cosily ensconced in his Qatari villa, expected to see off his challengers.
Meanwhile in Ramallah an emergency meeting of the Fatah Central Committee has resulted in the expulsion from the party of Nasser al-Qudwa, the nephew of Yasser Arafat. Qudwa had announced he would run in the elections as part of a new list called the National Democratic Forum, and is one of at least five potential divisions in Fatah, all of which will split the Fatah vote and hand victory to an undeserving Hamas, whose own vote has been boosted by the decision of their fellow Gaza-based organisation Islamic Jihad - yes they are classed as a political party - not to contest the elections.
A Fatah official said, "Nasser al Qudwa has stabbed Fatah in the back. He will pay a heavy price." Majed Faraj, head of the PA General Intelligence Service, warned Qudwa and other potential faction leaders, “Even if we need to chase anyone who threatens Fatah unity in the streets, we will do so.”
Given the Fatah disarray there is speculation that Abbas will find some excuse - probably 'the Jews' - for cancelling the elections but this would not go down well with the Biden Administration or the other western backers of the PA. While it is true that genuine political opposition has long been repressed in both the West Bank and Gaza - activists and journalists who question their actions or reveal information that make them appear oppressive, corrupt or inept are regularly arrested - it is telling that around 93% of eligible Palestinians have registered to vote. These elections will not lead to a much needed reformation of the corrupt Palestinian political system - that might be impossible - but they are at least the first step to a possible peaceful solution to the Israel/Palestine conflict and for that reason alone it is important they take place.
To begin in Gaza, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was yesterday controversially re-elected to his role just 24 hours after seeming to be deposed by Nizar Awadallah, one of Hamas' founders in the late 1980s. Awadallah was announced to have won by 7 votes but another round of voting declared Sinwar the winner.
Why was this important? Awadallah has close ties with the Iranian regime and was singled out by Tehran as the man they would like to see names as Hamas' military leader in Gaza, while Sinwar is closer to Egypt, who seek a peaceful solution to the conflict with Israel. Any move closer to Iran would have resulted in an escalation of terrorist activity and the almost certain withdrawal of financial support from Qatar, who pay most of the bills, just as almost happened last year when, fed up of Hamas' corruption and squandering of money, they were set to halt payments until an intervention from the Israeli government persuaded them to continue their support. It doesn't take an Einstein to work out why Israel would do that.
Another Hamas election to decide the political leadership is due to take place in the next week or two, with incumbent Ismail Haniyeh, cosily ensconced in his Qatari villa, expected to see off his challengers.
Meanwhile in Ramallah an emergency meeting of the Fatah Central Committee has resulted in the expulsion from the party of Nasser al-Qudwa, the nephew of Yasser Arafat. Qudwa had announced he would run in the elections as part of a new list called the National Democratic Forum, and is one of at least five potential divisions in Fatah, all of which will split the Fatah vote and hand victory to an undeserving Hamas, whose own vote has been boosted by the decision of their fellow Gaza-based organisation Islamic Jihad - yes they are classed as a political party - not to contest the elections.
A Fatah official said, "Nasser al Qudwa has stabbed Fatah in the back. He will pay a heavy price." Majed Faraj, head of the PA General Intelligence Service, warned Qudwa and other potential faction leaders, “Even if we need to chase anyone who threatens Fatah unity in the streets, we will do so.”
Given the Fatah disarray there is speculation that Abbas will find some excuse - probably 'the Jews' - for cancelling the elections but this would not go down well with the Biden Administration or the other western backers of the PA. While it is true that genuine political opposition has long been repressed in both the West Bank and Gaza - activists and journalists who question their actions or reveal information that make them appear oppressive, corrupt or inept are regularly arrested - it is telling that around 93% of eligible Palestinians have registered to vote. These elections will not lead to a much needed reformation of the corrupt Palestinian political system - that might be impossible - but they are at least the first step to a possible peaceful solution to the Israel/Palestine conflict and for that reason alone it is important they take place.
