Current Affairs Palestinian Elections

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BigMick

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Given the dramatic developments in Gaza and Ramallah in the last 48 hours it is perhaps time to start a thread on the long awaited Palestinian elections, due later this year at the behest of Mahmoud Abbas, currently in the 16th year of his 4 year term as president of the Palestinian Authority. Tony Blair was our Prime Minister when the last elections were held so this is a tumultuous event for the beleaguered Palestinian people. It says a lot about the quality of leadership that they've been forced to endure that early opinion polls suggest that Hamas, who rule in Gaza, would win in the West Bank, while Fatah who, through the PA, rule in the West Bank, would win in Gaza. There is, though, a long way to go and things are happening all the time.

To begin in Gaza, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was yesterday controversially re-elected to his role just 24 hours after seeming to be deposed by Nizar Awadallah, one of Hamas' founders in the late 1980s. Awadallah was announced to have won by 7 votes but another round of voting declared Sinwar the winner.

Why was this important? Awadallah has close ties with the Iranian regime and was singled out by Tehran as the man they would like to see names as Hamas' military leader in Gaza, while Sinwar is closer to Egypt, who seek a peaceful solution to the conflict with Israel. Any move closer to Iran would have resulted in an escalation of terrorist activity and the almost certain withdrawal of financial support from Qatar, who pay most of the bills, just as almost happened last year when, fed up of Hamas' corruption and squandering of money, they were set to halt payments until an intervention from the Israeli government persuaded them to continue their support. It doesn't take an Einstein to work out why Israel would do that.

Another Hamas election to decide the political leadership is due to take place in the next week or two, with incumbent Ismail Haniyeh, cosily ensconced in his Qatari villa, expected to see off his challengers.

Meanwhile in Ramallah an emergency meeting of the Fatah Central Committee has resulted in the expulsion from the party of Nasser al-Qudwa, the nephew of Yasser Arafat. Qudwa had announced he would run in the elections as part of a new list called the National Democratic Forum, and is one of at least five potential divisions in Fatah, all of which will split the Fatah vote and hand victory to an undeserving Hamas, whose own vote has been boosted by the decision of their fellow Gaza-based organisation Islamic Jihad - yes they are classed as a political party - not to contest the elections.

A Fatah official said, "Nasser al Qudwa has stabbed Fatah in the back. He will pay a heavy price." Majed Faraj, head of the PA General Intelligence Service, warned Qudwa and other potential faction leaders, “Even if we need to chase anyone who threatens Fatah unity in the streets, we will do so.”

Given the Fatah disarray there is speculation that Abbas will find some excuse - probably 'the Jews' - for cancelling the elections but this would not go down well with the Biden Administration or the other western backers of the PA. While it is true that genuine political opposition has long been repressed in both the West Bank and Gaza - activists and journalists who question their actions or reveal information that make them appear oppressive, corrupt or inept are regularly arrested - it is telling that around 93% of eligible Palestinians have registered to vote. These elections will not lead to a much needed reformation of the corrupt Palestinian political system - that might be impossible - but they are at least the first step to a possible peaceful solution to the Israel/Palestine conflict and for that reason alone it is important they take place.
 
There won’t be peace whilst Israelis keep changing the facts on the ground...the isn’t any land left for a viable Palestinian state due to settlement construction and the Israelis have rejected giving citizenship to the Palestinian Arabs who live there as it will cease to be a Jewish democratic state.

So now people are now looking the other way to a quasi apartheid state.

The Palestinians should also take some blame as they turned down serious peace offers in the past for a more maximum position which is unrealistic. Now the Israelis are using this as a prelude to killing any hope of two separate state for two people
 
Mahmoud has to go
Yes, at the moment that looks like the only way for Fatah to at least partially unite and be strong enough to win the election. Certainly, he is so unpopular that he has no chance of being re-elected president should he decide to stand again - unless there's a fix, which isn't impossible.

I must confess that when he was elected president I was one of the optimists who thought he could be the man to achieve a reconciliation of the conflict and full Palestinian statehood. He was one of the main architects of the Oslo Accords and had been involved in several other peace initiatives, and he'd also been brave enough to criticise Arafat.

There's no doubt that turning down the offer of Israeli PM Edhud Olmert in 2008 was a huge mistake for him personally and a tragedy for the Palestinian people. Olmert offered to withdraw from 93.7% of the West Bank, with 5.8% of Israeli land given to the Palestinians in recompense, plus a direct link to Gaza. He also offered to withdraw from Arab neighbourhoods of east Jerusalem and place the Old City — home to Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy sites — under international control. In addition, 5000 Palestinians would have been allowed the 'right to return'.

Olmert told Abbas, ‘Remember my words, it will be 50 years before there will be another Israeli prime minister that will offer you what I am offering you now. Don’t miss this opportunity,'”
It's no exaggeration to say that the world would be a different place had that offer been accepted.

Sadly, he was never able to control the terrorist groups such as Islamic Jihad and Hamas, and losing the 'Battle of Gaza' to Hamas in 2007 severely undermined his authority and meant that the Palestinians were no longer speaking with one voice. Since then he has become increasingly authoritarian, immensely rich (rumoured to be a billionaire), and at 86 and not in the best of health it is long past the time for him to go. From the comments he's reportedly made to Qudwa and arch-rival Mohammed Dahlan it looks as though he intends to stay, but he might wait until the 1st leg of the elections, for the Legislative Council, are completed before making his decision. They are due in May, two months before the presidential election.

As to who would replace him it could be one of the 'dissidents' like Qudwa, or former PM Salam Fayyad, or the candidates from the two extreme wings, Mohammed Dahlan or Marwan Barghouti, currently residing in an Israeli prison. Alternatively, it could be an insider such as Jibril Rajoub, who's brother is a leading figure in Hamas and so could run as a unifier, or another former PM Mohammed Shtayyeh, who's become suspiciously prominent in recent weeks.
 
Yes, at the moment that looks like the only way for Fatah to at least partially unite and be strong enough to win the election. Certainly, he is so unpopular that he has no chance of being re-elected president should he decide to stand again - unless there's a fix, which isn't impossible.

I must confess that when he was elected president I was one of the optimists who thought he could be the man to achieve a reconciliation of the conflict and full Palestinian statehood. He was one of the main architects of the Oslo Accords and had been involved in several other peace initiatives, and he'd also been brave enough to criticise Arafat.

There's no doubt that turning down the offer of Israeli PM Edhud Olmert in 2008 was a huge mistake for him personally and a tragedy for the Palestinian people. Olmert offered to withdraw from 93.7% of the West Bank, with 5.8% of Israeli land given to the Palestinians in recompense, plus a direct link to Gaza. He also offered to withdraw from Arab neighbourhoods of east Jerusalem and place the Old City — home to Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy sites — under international control. In addition, 5000 Palestinians would have been allowed the 'right to return'.

Olmert told Abbas, ‘Remember my words, it will be 50 years before there will be another Israeli prime minister that will offer you what I am offering you now. Don’t miss this opportunity,'”
It's no exaggeration to say that the world would be a different place had that offer been accepted.

Sadly, he was never able to control the terrorist groups such as Islamic Jihad and Hamas, and losing the 'Battle of Gaza' to Hamas in 2007 severely undermined his authority and meant that the Palestinians were no longer speaking with one voice. Since then he has become increasingly authoritarian, immensely rich (rumoured to be a billionaire), and at 86 and not in the best of health it is long past the time for him to go. From the comments he's reportedly made to Qudwa and arch-rival Mohammed Dahlan it looks as though he intends to stay, but he might wait until the 1st leg of the elections, for the Legislative Council, are completed before making his decision. They are due in May, two months before the presidential election.

As to who would replace him it could be one of the 'dissidents' like Qudwa, or former PM Salam Fayyad, or the candidates from the two extreme wings, Mohammed Dahlan or Marwan Barghouti, currently residing in an Israeli prison. Alternatively, it could be an insider such as Jibril Rajoub, who's brother is a leading figure in Hamas and so could run as a unifier, or another former PM Mohammed Shtayyeh, who's become suspiciously prominent in recent weeks.
Olmert's offer sounds generous - the Israeli offers always do, and are always made in bad faith knowing that there's no possible way any Palestinian leader can accept them - until you look at the detail and realise that no viable Palestinian state could be created from what he was offering, which was basically 4 bantustans in the West Bank surrounded by illegal Israeli settlements.

Arafat signed away any Palestinian claim to anything beyond the 1967 green line at Oslo, which amounts to being left with 22% of what was Palestine before 1948. Why is the expectation always on the Palestinians to cede more and more with each offer, while the Israeli side keeps on building and building on their land in the meantime? Where are the concessions from Israel? Ever?
 
Olmert's offer sounds generous - the Israeli offers always do, and are always made in bad faith knowing that there's no possible way any Palestinian leader can accept them - until you look at the detail and realise that no viable Palestinian state could be created from what he was offering, which was basically 4 bantustans in the West Bank surrounded by illegal Israeli settlements.

Arafat signed away any Palestinian claim to anything beyond the 1967 green line at Oslo, which amounts to being left with 22% of what was Palestine before 1948. Why is the expectation always on the Palestinians to cede more and more with each offer, while the Israeli side keeps on building and building on their land in the meantime? Where are the concessions from Israel? Ever?
I wish the world would stand up more to this
 
PRECISELY
Strangely, they had a burgeoning democracy until 2007 when their Legislative Council, their parliament was shut down. Things weren't perfect before that, far from it, but Palestinians were rightly proud that, unlike the majority of Arab countries, they at least had a form of democracy, underpinned by the Basic Law, a wonderful document.

I'm sure we all know what happened in 2007, but the fact that an incredible 93% of people eligible have registered to vote shows that they want that democracy back. They want an end to the corruption, they want an end to the stalemate, internally and with Israel: the only people who benefit from that are the political leaders of Fatah and Hamas, their cronies, the gangsters, and the terrorists. The other people who are happy with the status quo are the Israeli right, who can carry on expanding their settlements. They know that there is not the slightest chance of any sort of settlement with Israel until there is an intra-Palestinian reconciliation.

That's why these elections, if they take place as scheduled, are so important to the Palestinian people.
 
Strangely, they had a burgeoning democracy until 2007 when their Legislative Council, their parliament was shut down. Things weren't perfect before that, far from it, but Palestinians were rightly proud that, unlike the majority of Arab countries, they at least had a form of democracy, underpinned by the Basic Law, a wonderful document.

I'm sure we all know what happened in 2007, but the fact that an incredible 93% of people eligible have registered to vote shows that they want that democracy back. They want an end to the corruption, they want an end to the stalemate, internally and with Israel: the only people who benefit from that are the political leaders of Fatah and Hamas, their cronies, the gangsters, and the terrorists. The other people who are happy with the status quo are the Israeli right, who can carry on expanding their settlements. They know that there is not the slightest chance of any sort of settlement with Israel until there is an intra-Palestinian reconciliation.

That's why these elections, if they take place as scheduled, are so important to the Palestinian people.
Assuming they can unite the people of the West Bank and Gaza etc with one party/leader, then surely the strength in numbers will be exactly what the Israelis fear. They will not take it lying down I fear.
 
The PA have written to President Biden, supposedly on behalf of all parties involved in the forthcoming elections. The letter states that a concensus was reached by all political factions:

1 Commitment to international law standards.
2 Commitment to a Palestinian State based upon the borders of 1967 and Jerusalem as its capital.
3 Commitment to the PLO as the political umbrella and the legitimate sole representative of the Palestinian people.
4 Commitment to the principal of peaceful transfer of power through elections.
5 Commitment to peaceful popular resistance.

All sounds good and reasonable.

Unfortunately, Hamas immediately set about undermining it.
Spokesman Fathi Hammad said, "Hamas will join any list that endorses the armed resistance. Palestine is Muslim-owned and no-one is entitled to give up one inch of it."
Another statement said, "We did not mandate any Palestinian individual or party to speak on our behalf; our political and national positions are well known and clear. They are expressed in our official documents and various publications, and not through any letter here or there."

I'm sure that President Biden will note that Hamas still don't support the authority of the PLO and remain opposed to a Two-State solution.

Ironically, the 1967 borders are almost identical to the offers turned down by Arafat in 200 and Abbas in 2008. Here's a copy of the notes and map of the West Bank sketched by Abbas showing the offer made to him by Olmert. The 6% of land (3 areas) the Israeli's would have retained are marked with a blue dot.
ShowImage (1).webp

Of course there were strings attached - Israel wanted assurances over security and nothing could happen until the Gaza situation was resolved - but, as Condoleeza Rice said at the time, "Yitzak Rabin was assassinated for offering less than that." Maybe Abbas feared a similar fate. Sadly, I think it will be a long time before any Israeli PM offers a similar deal.
 
Assuming they can unite the people of the West Bank and Gaza etc with one party/leader, then surely the strength in numbers will be exactly what the Israelis fear. They will not take it lying down I fear.
Yes the Israeli right would certainly prefer the status quo, hence their persuading Qatar to continue to prop up the failing Hamas governance of Gaza.

However, Israel lived with and co-operated with a united PA before 2007, so there would be no excuse for not do so again, provided that it's a PA still committed to a peaceful resolution.
 
Fatah and Hamas are meeting today in Cairo - Egypt are keen to show the US administration that they can be relied upon as 'honest brokers' - to discuss the presidential election. Plenty of rumours of a stitch-up between them.

The previous meeting, also in Cairo, resulted in an agreement to release all political prisoners. It hasn't gone well.
Back in Ramallah, the PA said, "We have no political prisoners."
Back in Gaza, Hamas said, "We have no political prisoners."
Next day, Hamas release four men, held in prison since 2007 for no other reason than being employees of the PA.
"What about the other 90?" said the PA.
"There are none," said Hamas. " Everyone else has committed a crime."
Shortly after, Hamas released 45 more men incarcerated since 2007.
That leaves more than 40 men still wrongly imprisoned.
The PA, meanwhile have released no-one and, if anything, have increased their rounding up of political opponents, including Hamas supporters.
They still claim to have no political prisoners.
Someone I know and trust, who was once arrested for taking part in a political rally there, tells me that the jail in Jericho is full of them!

Two good things that did come out of the previous meeting were that Egypt temporarily lifted their blockade on Gaza by re-opening the Rafah border crossing for the first time in years, and the PA lifted some of the financial sanctions they imposed on Gaza.
 
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