Current Affairs Palestinian Elections

Status
Not open for further replies.
Latest opinion poll findings regarding people's expectations, hopes, and fears for the election, and their perception of current conditions.

Top Priority for elections
38% Restore unity between Gaza and West Bank
23% Improve economic conditions
17% Combat corruption
12% End blockade of Gaza
4% Peace with Israel

Anyone reading the previous posts on this thread won't be surprised by these results. Corruption would be higher but other polls have shown that a lot of people are resigned to it continuing. Peace with Israel very low as most Palestinians are bright enough to realise that it is a long-term goal, with the elections a vital first step towards that goal by restoring national unity.

84% believe the PA is corrupt; 70% believe Hamas is corrupt.

Evaluation of current conditions in Gaza - 6% positive. In the West Bank it's 19%.

Perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 68%; in the West Bank 64%.

Desire to emigrate from Gaza - 40%; West Bank - 23%.

How to reach a peace agreement with Israel

Negotiations - 36%
Non-violent resistance - 10%
Happy with the status quo - 21%
Armed struggle - 26%

I'm happy the armed struggle figure is so low, though it needs to be lower, surprised the status quo figure is so high - they must have asked a lot of cronies of Abbas or Hamas!
 
Last bit of the survey

Consequences of a Hamas victory:

Gaza: 49% say the blockade will be tightened and 14% say it will be relaxed or removed and the rest said current conditions will remain unchanged.

West Bank-Gaza Strip unity: 36% say the split will be consolidated and 19% say the prospects for unity will increase.

Economic conditions: 45% say economic conditions will worsen and 17% say they will improve.

Corruption: 26% say corruption will decrease and 28% say it will increase

Quartet conditions: 62% say Hamas will not accept the conditions of the Quartet and 26% say it will accept them.

Israel’s reaction: a majority of 51% thinks that Israel will not allow Hamas to form a government in the West Bank, 28% think Israel will arrest Hamas’ members of the parliament, and only 11% think Israel will allow Hamas to form a government in the West Bank.

Not sure what is meant by victory - an outright win (unlikely) or the largest party in a coalition.
 
Three developments yesterday, two intriguing, one potentially tragic.

The PA have put in a request to Israel for the use of 18 polling stations in East Jerusalem - they use post offices. That is three times the number used in the previous election way back in 2006, causing some people to suggest it is an attempt to goad Israel into saying no, thus giving Abbas an excuse to cancel the elections while blaming Israel. Right on cue, a PA spokesman said exactly that, despite the fact that the Elections Commission - who are doing an amazing job - have already said that plans are in place for the election to proceed in any event, as I've said in a previous post.

Hamas are among those suspicious of the PA's motives. Osama al Mazini, head of Hamas Shura Council, warned Abbas against cancelling the elections, adding, "We will chop off the head of anyone who tampers with the homeland. Hamas will not recognise Israel or lay down its weapons. Hamas will not accept the Quartet principles for recognising a Palestinian government. Hamas will lay down its weapons only after the liberation of all of Palestine".

Meanwhile, Egyptian intelligence officials arrived in the Gaza yesterday in an unexpected visit, apparently linked to negotiations regarding a possible prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel. Israel are keen to secure the release of two citizens held by Hamas for 5 years, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers, while Hamas would seek the release of as many prisoners as possible in exchange, a figure likely to be in the hundreds.

They would, of course, be released to great fanfare and every one of them treated as a returning hero, providing a much needed boost to Hamas's flagging election campaign. it goes without saying that their political opponents are not happy, with a Fatah spokesman saying, "A prisoner swap ahead of the parliamentary election would be a gift to Hamas and boost its chances of winning more seats".

Previous talks, some as recently as January, have failed so there is hope for Fatah yet.


The third development, and far more serious, concerns the rising coronavirus crisis in Gaza. I've written in more detail on the coronavirus thread, but it seems to me that if the situation continues to deteriorate there would be a legitimate reason for the PA at least postponing the elections.

It's true that if Gazans are unable or unwilling to go out and vote it would affect the Hamas vote more than the Fatah vote, and the Dahlan vote would be devastated - surely not even Fatah would be that cynical. Hopefully, the situation will improve in the coming days and weeks and the election will be able to go ahead as planned.
 
As predictable as it is puerile.



Abbas playing politics by pretending to act tough with the Israelis during his regular meeting with the head of Shin Bet.

Lansman, and I've no doubt others, falls for it.

Truth is, the PA and Israelis work hand in glove on a lot of things.

The Palestine Electoral Commission have already said there is no reason to call off the elections - see my previous posts on the subject.

If they are called off it's because the PA want them to be called off.

This is a more accurate account of their meetings:

"I consistently meet with the heads of Shin Bet - we agree on 99% of the issues". (Mahmoud Abbas, Sept 2018)
 
When Mahmoud Abbas called these elections he had two plans in place: Plan A was to control who was allowed to stand in the elections, using his traditional tactics of threats and bribes. Plan B was to cancel the elections if Plan A failed and the opinion polls suggest Fatah face defeat; again using his traditional tactic - blame Israel.

Plan A began to spiral out of control when al-Qudwa and Dahlan set up their own parties to run in the election, and hit further trouble when Marwan Barghouti changed his mind, deserted Abbas and joined al-Qudwa. The plan finally hit the buffers yesterday when the Elections Commission announced that it had rejected 226 out of 231 objections submitted against lists and candidates nominated for the elections - more than half of the objections were made by Fatah. Four of the objections were withdrawn and only one was successful, against a female candidate on the Qudwa/Barghouti list, who was barred for being an Israeli citizen. Last week a Hamas candidate was barred for not appearing on the register of electors.

Fatah particularly targeted the Dahlan list, notably Sameer Al-Mashharawi, the head of the list, over his involvement in 'causing chaos' in Gaza following the 2006 Hamas victory in the parliamentary elections. The whole of Dahlan's list was objected to based on the claim that because he has a criminal record, no party representing him should be allowed to stand. Other candidates were objected to on the pretext that they had been convicted of 'insulting' senior Palestinian officials.

They also appealed against the nomination of some Hamas candidates on the grounds that they had failed to submit their resignations from NGOs and other institutions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Another candidate, Sheikh Khaled Barahmeh, was objected to for 'insulting behaviour', a reference to his criticism of Abbas for attending the funeral of Israeli president Shimon Peres in 2016.

It's a sign of the integrity of the Elections Commission that they stood up to the party in power by throwing out all of their spurious objections.

With Plan A having failed, Plan B, which has been kept simmering in the background, has quickly been brought to the fore.

Hatem Abdel Qader, a member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, said: "Israel, the occupying force, must abide by the agreements and not obstruct the elections in Jerusalem."

"If Israel does not abide by the agreements, there are two alternatives: The first is to turn the elections in the city into a battle, confrontation and a clash, meaning imposing them as a de facto situation by placing ballot boxes in the streets and clashing with the occupation if it tries to prevent them. The second alternative is for the Palestinian Authority and the factions to have reached the conclusion that they are unable to hold elections in Jerusalem and this means postponement or cancellation."

Actually, he is wrong.

The Elections Commission has again shown its integrity by stating that provisions had already been made should Israel not allow voting in East Jerusalem.

When this was put to Mr Abdel Qader he replied that elections had to be held "in the heart of East Jerusalem, not in the outskirts of the city, and any other arrangement is tantamount to recognition of the so-called sovereignty of Israel over the city."

That goes against what the vast majority of the public say in the latest opinion poll - 65% want the elections to go ahead, with Jerusalemites able to vote in the surrounding villages. It is also different to what Fatah had previously said, when the problem was about "the rights of Jerusalemites in the democratic process"; no mention of sovereignty.

He also rejected proposals to conduct polling inside European consulates and UN offices in Jerusalem, saying, "This is not a solution, and it is, in fact, a dangerous proposition, as European consulates and UN offices are under the sovereignty of these countries, even if they are in the occupied city."

Another Fatah candidate Nasser Qous also refused such a proposal, "because this is neutral territory, and we want the elections to be in the centre of Jerusalem, as took place in 2006 and the elections that preceded it. There will be no elections without Jerusalem, and this is a message for everyone."

This is a clear case of Fatah trying to change the story. The Electoral Commission have stated that provisions have been made for the people of East Jerusalem to vote in the villages on the outskirts of the city, or by using postal votes, a facility increased because of covid. Therefore, there is no reason for the elections not to go ahead, as the majority of the population want.

To counter this, Fatah are using the sovereignty of Jerusalem as a fig leaf. If the opinion polls continue to look bad for them they will effectively hand over the decision on whether the elections take place to the Israeli government.

The Israelis. of course, are happy with the status quo, but have so far remained silent on whether they will allow voting to take place in East Jerusalem. They will be watching the opinion polls with equal apprehension to Fatah: a Hamas led government would be untenable for them.

Despite these rumblings,the election campaign is, for now, continuing as normal. However, if the decision to cancel is eventually made it is guaranteed that the usual suspects in the west will parrot the Fatah/PA line and blame the Israelis, just as Jon Lansman did, as I pointed out yesterday. The truth is very different. There is no reason for the elections to be cancelled and if they are it is purely because Fatah have calculated that they will lose.
 
Two additions to the previous post.

Activists from the Palestinian Civic Society today called on the PA not to use the issue of Jerusalem as an excuse to delay or cancel the elections. It would be good if the Biden Administration and the EU were saying the same, even if in private.

Meanwhile in Hebron, two gunmen attacked the home of a candidate on Mohammed Dahlan's list in the early hours of this morning. This follows a number of attacks on the homes of other Fatah rebels last week. Hatem Shaheen, a lawyer and no. 13 on Dahlan's list, said he and other members of the list have been the victims of a smear campaign on social media and this was the reason for the attack.

So far no-one has been hurt, but there have been no arrests. Dahlan's supporters urged the PA to immediately launch an investigation into the incident.

“The attack against Shaheen is a despicable crime that aims to sabotage the electoral process and intimidate candidates,” said Sufian Abu Zaida, a senior Fatah official from the Gaza Strip who is also affiliated with Dahlan.
 
I watched an interview last night with former PA PM Salam Fayyad, who has formed his own list, Together We Can. Since quitting as prime minister in 2013 Fayyad has had a distinguished academic career in the US, including Havard, the Brookings Institute and as a visiting professor at Princeton University.

The name of his list has echoes of Obama's 'Yes We can' mantra, and he explains its relevance to Palestine today:

“What is needed to face the current challenges is a national unity government in which we have all sectors of the Palestinian political landscape and not a majority government.”

In addition to his support for a unity government, Fayyad also called for a much stronger stand for Palestinian rights with the United States and the international community.

“We must go back to the beginnings, including to the PLO positions before the 1988 Palestinian peace initiative. Palestinians must insist that Israel recognise the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people, including the right to self-determination. This is a logical request that can be defended internationally, and we can use it to gain the global support of those who support peace, justice and equality.”

By referring to the pre-1988 position, Fayyad is highlighting one of the main long-standing fissures in Fatah and the PLO. Peace activist Mohammed Mossad hinted at the same thing when he referred to 'outsiders', which is how the local PLO members regarded the 'Tunisians' who came in and took over with Yasser Arafat, and endorsed a position which eventually led to the Oslo Accords..

"To restore full agency in our quest for freedom and dignity, it is time to rethink the 1988 peace initiative - specifically, the willingness to accept a Palestinian state on 22% of historic Palestine, under a so-called “two state solution. Instead, we must propose an alternative way forward that could garner broad-based Palestinian support. What the Palestinian people desperately need is a clear statement — a definition upon which we can legitimately pursue our national aspirations. I believe a broad Palestinian national consensus can be built upon a platform committing to either of two options.

The first is anchored on the model of a single state, whose constitution provides for full equality for all of its citizens, and without any discrimination on any basis whatsoever. The second is an agreed two-state solution — but only with an independent and fully sovereign Palestinian state on the entire territory occupied by Israel in 1967, including East Jerusalem.

In the meantime, we should spare no effort to begin the process of reunifying our polity and rebuilding and strengthening our institutions - an especially demanding undertaking after years of fracture and separation. We need an agenda that empowers us to become the masters of our own destiny. Once we converge on a policy statement built on the options above, we can begin piecing together that agenda.

That is all imminently possible if our leadership signals its willingness to lead on the strength of such a vision. The choice at this moment is ours to make. Once we decide to act, all—near and afar—will begin to realise that our will has not been broken, and that it will never be."


He also dismissed the restraints that the Quartet (the EU, Russia, the UN and the US) imposes on electoral nominees. This is a reference to the principles laid out by the Quartet in their 'road map' for peace: “It is the view of the Quartet that all members of a future Palestinian Government must be committed to non-violence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Road Map.”

Fayyad seems to be offering an olive branch to Hamas because they and some other participants in the election disagree with one or more of those principles but are nonetheless allowed to run by paying lip service to the principles, as per the PA's letter to President Biden I mentioned on 15/3.

What are his strengths?

1. Fayyad has the advantage of being neither a corrupt Fatah official or Hamas. Supporters hope he will be able to capture the votes of those who are not happy with both those parties. Even when he was prime minister, he was not a Fatah member. The Tunisians accepted into service only locals who bought into the Fatah agenda, and saw Fayyad as an outsider who did not want to endorse the PLO agenda.

2. The entry of Fayyad into the elections provides an important alternative for voters who are searching for an someone who has clean hands as opposed to the major factions that have dominated the political scene. During his time in government he took on the patronage network upon which Fatah had thrived for decades.

3. Known and respected internationally from his time at the IMF, in government, and in the US.

4. During his time in government he was crucial to the PA's attempts to build a functioning state, to the extent that the policy became known as Fayyadism.

The policies were based on the simple but all-too-rare notion that a leader's legitimacy should be based not on slogans or rejectionism, personality cults or security services, but on delivering transparent, accountable administration and services. He was at the heart of a raft of political and economic reforms central to the PA's state-building agenda, which was intended to secure Palestinian national liberation through the pursuit of domestic reforms and a political plan focused on peaceful institution building - to have the institutions up and running before sovereignty, thus having a proven record of building and maintaining these institutions, as well as honouring signed agreements.

What are his weaknesses?

1. That same period as PM, 2007-13. He is seen as someone who worked for Abbas and executed his economic and draconian security policies. Unfortunately that plan never reached completion for many reasons, such as Fatah factions, Hamas, Israeli duplicity, the Arab Spring. Neither did his plan to overhaul the education system, which had three primary goals: strengthening critical-thinking, developing language skills, and combating extremism. It goes without saying that Palestine would already be a different place if those plans had been executed properly.

2. Having been away from Palestine for so long, many new voters, too young to remember him as PM, do not know who he is.

3. He is a quietly spoken man, very much an academic and seriously lacking the charisma of a Barghouti or Dahlan.

4. Being neither Fatah or Hamas, he has no power base on which to build, unlike Dahlan and the other main candidates.

5. The current political situation is too fraught, with people frightened of the possibility of a Hamas-led government, frustrated at the continuation of corruption under Fatah, tired of the Gaza-West Bank split, and the stagnation of the peace process with Israel. The time does not seem right for a moderate like Fayyad; a quiet, secular, pro-Western "nation-builder, as opposed to the fiery nation-destroyers who loudly promise to destroy Israel, or threaten terror as a means to force them to the negotiating table," as a former colleague recently said.

I would think that Fayyad's list will certainly pass the electoral threshold, but won't go much beyond that. I was surprised he didn't merge with either of the Dahlan or Qudwa/Barghouti lists, preferably the former.

I'm disturbed by his dismissal of the Quartet's Principals but I'd like to think that's just a bit of electioneering - he knows Hamas will be allowed to run anyway as there would be mayhem if they were barred - for all their faults they do have supporters amongst the Palestinian people, and, although currently diminishing in number, they have the right to be represented.

Salam Fayyad is a serious man who should have a place in a serious Palestinian government. I hope he does well enough to warrant a position of influence in the national unity government he is seeking.
 
Nasser al-Qudwa has announced that Marwan Barghouti will run in the presidential election scheduled for July. There's no surprise in this - the clue was in the name of the list the two formed to run in the legislative elections: Freedom. Barghouti and his supporters feel the quickest route out of prison is by becoming president!

The announcement came on the 19th anniversary of Barghouti's arrest by the IDF.

Qudwa made the announcement on a visit to Gaza where he is expected to meet with representatives of several Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, both of which he has been critical of, earning him some veiled and not so veiled threats in return.

Qudwa, who has run the most impressive campaign so far, claimed that his list has been facing “harassment and pressure” since its formation, but didn't provide further details.
“The elections reflect the desire of the Palestinian people to bring about a radical change in the Palestinian political system,” he declared.

The confirmation that Barghouti will run is another blow to Mahmoud Abbas and will increase the pressure on him to cancel the elections.

Unsurprisingly, then, the propaganda campaign to convince the international community (and the Palestinian people) that there is no option but to cancel the elections - due to Israel's stance on Jerusalem - continues and is being expanded.

A PLO official said, "Regional parties are trying to foil the upcoming Palestinian elections. The PLO Executive Committee will hold a meeting soon to discuss the situation and how to face this big conspiracy".

Jibril Rajoub, chief architect of Fatah's so far disastrous election plan and no. 4 on the party's list claimed, "Israel does not want the Palestinian elections to take place so that it can implement Donald Trump's Deal of the Century plan".

Rajoub had recently come out with the extraordinary statement that the most important thing for anyone standing for office was their 'struggle profile'.
“People are not going to ask what you want to do in the future, but they want to know what sacrifices you made in the past.”

So according to Rajoub it is more important that 20 or so years ago a candidate lobbed a hand grenade or strapped a suicide bomb vest onto some brainwashed young man or woman's chest than it is to have some sort of a coherent plan for the future. A free press would have ripped such a ludicrous statement apart but sadly the propaganda sheets and broadcasters that exist today in the West Bank and Gaza just reproduce his words uncritically.
 
A rather cynical, if interesting, report from Iranian (Hamas supporting) sources:

'Fatah officials fear the Covid pandemic will reduce the chances of the movement winning the PLC elections. They believe the number of voters supporting Fatah will shrink in light of the spread of the virus in contrast to the religious factions whose supporters believe that the elections are religious and it is their duty to vote regardless of the risk.
Because most of the parties are secular it is expected that a number of them will petition the Elections Commission to consider the possibility of temporarily postponing the elections.'

Meanwhile.

It was exactly 20 years ago today that the first missile was fired from Gaza into Israel - it fell in an open field outside Sderot, on April 16, 2001. As if in commemoration, a missile was fired today towards the same Israeli city - it's not known whether Hamas or Islamic Jihad were the guilty party.

The choreographed response came quickly as the IDF hit a military outpost (deserted) northeast of Al-Bureij, and a smuggling tunnel near Rafah in southern Gaza.

This was only the second missile fired from Gaza since last August - the other one was on Israeli election day. Quite why they chose to break the tahadiya that has been in place since August is anyone's guess. Then again, a few bombed out ruins would make useful propaganda for Hamas's election campaign.
 
Another rocket was fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel last night. The rocket landed in an open area, no casualties or property damage were reported. In response, the IDF attacked targets belonging to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, hitting a Hamas training facility, a station containing anti-aircraft launchers in development, a factory used to produce concrete for digging terrorist tunnels and storing weapons, and infrastructure for tunnels.

What is the purpose of firing rockets into Israel? Why have they started now? There's a clue in the bizarre statement from Hamas: propaganda for the election.

Hamas spokesman Hazam Qassem said, "For the second day in a row, Gaza is under Zionist attack during Ramadan. Despite the violence on their part, Gaza is fighting and will wake up to a new day and continue fighting for liberation."

It's a long-standing tactic, most infamously used to distract from the street protests that were brutally suppressed. On that occasion, a missile fired into Israel killed an elderly couple in their home. Hamas celebrated with a counter-march on the same day as the protests.

Now it seems to be a message to their supporters that they are not gong soft on Israel, despite all the talk of a unity government and coalitions with Fatah splinter groups, and the suggestion that Gaza is under attack will help to cement their core support.
 
The pressure on Mahmoud Abbas increased over the weekend when he received a letter from an influential group of Fatah-supporting prisoners demanding that he cancel or postpone the elections due to the splits within Fatah.

After paying lip service to the 'Jerusalem problem' the prisoners spent the rest of the letter identifying the problems within Fatah and offering their solutions. The letter sought to advance “a Fatah initiative, to fix the crisis in Fatah… to create consensus within Fatah and close the ranks” in advance of the coming elections.

The prisoners warned that the raging power struggle among senior Fatah officials could lose “tens of thousands of votes” because at least 15 Fatah-affiliated lists have registered for the parliamentary election. “This means that Fatah could lose seven to 10 seats in the parliament.” The PLC has 132 members.

They suggested that after postponing the elections Abbas should amend the election law so as to allow any Palestinian to present his or her candidacy for the PA presidential election, scheduled for July 31. Afterwards, the prisoners suggested, the list formed by Nasser al-Qudwa – who was recently expelled from Fatah – and Marwan Barghouti would pull out from the race and merge with the official Fatah list, dominated by Abbas loyalists.
At the same time, negotiations would be conducted with the other Fatah-affiliated lists to reach “satisfactory solutions” that would prevent the loss of many votes.
They called on Abbas to reconsider his decision to expel Qudwa from Fatah and restore his membership in the Fatah Central Committee.

They also suggested that Abbas should arbitrarily change the rules and hold the presidential election according to the US electoral system, where the president and vice president run together.
This would enable the ageing Abbas to run for president, while the imprisoned Marwan Barghouti could be nominated for vice president. “This will affirm Fatah’s unity, which is based on the legitimacy of its historic leadership.”

It's not known whether Barghouti had any part in the letter.


In addition to this there are strong rumours that the Biden Administration would “understand” a PA decision to postpone elections. If so I would imagine they would highlight the coronavirus crisis as the main reason for their decision, but the reality is they are as fearful of the repercussions of a Hamas-led government as the prisoners!


Hamas, meanwhile, are keeping up their insistence that the elections go ahead as scheduled. One spokesman said, "The talk about postponing or cancelling the elections sets alarm bells and reflects the deep crisis Fatah is facing."

Another official, Abdel Hakim Awad, said, "It's obvious that the Palestinian leadership will use Jerusalem as an excuse to avoid holding the elections. The Palestinian leadership has for many years neglected Jerusalem."

It's very rare, and a little uncomfortable, but I actually find myself in agreement with Hamas on this. There's no doubt that the PA have ignored the residents of East Jerusalem for many years. It's ironic that for all the fuss about Jerusalemites having the right to vote, the disillusionment of the population with the PA and the lack of enthusiasm for Hamas means that the turnout for the area is expected to be far lower than in the West Bank or Gaza.

As for Mahmoud Abbas, he said yesterday, "We are determined to hold the elections on time in the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem."

I wouldn't bank on that 'determination' holding until 22nd May.
 
First opinion poll since all lists were submitted and accepted.

25.3% Fatah (23.1 WB, 28.7 Gaza)
13% Freedom (Qudwa/Barghouti) (15 WB, 10.1 Gaza)
8.8% Future (Dahlan) (1.1 WB, 20.2 Gaza)
8.2% Hamas (5.9 WB, 11.5 Gaza)
2.2% The People's Pulse (PFLP)
2.1% Together We Can (Fayyad)

The remaining 40% have either not made their mind up, will vote for a smaller list, or will not vote.

79.2% said holding the elections was important, 14.3% said not important.

44.4% felt elections would be postponed
38.6% felt they would go ahead as scheduled.

Poll conducted April 3-13.

Things to note:

1. A lot of people still to make up their mind, which backs up what I've heard anecdotally from people on the ground.
2. Collapse of Hamas vote - unbelievably low, and very pleasing if true.
3. Discrepancy in level of support for Future list - 2nd most popular in Gaza, barely registering in West Bank, emphasising the work Dahlan has done in Gaza and the success of the campaign against him in the WB.
4. Most importantly, the healthy lead for Fatah, and the three Fatah lists ahead of Hamas, totalling 47.1% of the vote. Will this provide enough reassurance for Abbas to go ahead with the elections? Most likely he will need more evidence.
 
A bit more from yesterday's opinion poll, this time about the presidential election. So far there is only one declared candidate, Marwan Barghouti, but it is almost certain Mahmoud Abbas will run in an attempt to hold on to the presidency. Hamas have indicated that they will not put up a candidate, but if they did it is likely to be their political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The opinion poll was based on just those three running and came up with the following result:

33.5% Barghouti
24.5% Abbas
10.5% Haniyeh

31.5% undecided.

Meanwhile, 60.2% said they supported the imprisoned Barghouti's right to run for president, while 19.3% were against.

Clearly that result is a disaster for Abbas and, if it is accurate, it's hard to see him continuing with the election. However, if he allows the legislative election to go ahead he will then find it difficult to cancel the presidential election: he will no longer have the Israeli stance over East Jerusalem to blame. Therefore, this opinion poll will increase the chances of the legislative elections being cancelled, despite suggesting that Fatah would be by far the largest party.
 
So Hamas slump to 8% in the opinion polls and last night 36 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel.

Coincidence?

There were no casualties but there was damage to property. The choreographed response saw the Israeli military strike multiple Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip in the early hours of Saturday morning, including rocket launchers and underground infrastructure. Again there were no casualties.

Hamas haven't claimed responsibility for the rockets but their official media tracked the launch of the rockets in real time, suggesting they were involved. In any case they are in full control of Gaza and could easily clamp down on any rogue groups if they chose to, rather than going on practice manoeuvres with them.

Like many people, I can't help but suspect that Hamas are hoping for an Israeli missile to go astray and damage property and injure innocents, allowing them to use the footage and photos to bolster their narrative that Gaza is under attack and Hamas are the only group who will fight fire with fire.

The attacks came just a day after Rodney Hunter, the new political coordinator for the US Mission to the UN told the UN Security Council, "The United States and other key partners have long been clear that participants in the democratic process must accept previous agreements, renounce violence and terrorism, and recognise Israel’s right to exist."
 
A 'quiet' night last night - just the 4 missiles fired into Israel.

There were others, but they fell short and landed in Gaza itself. Incidentally, all the missiles were fired from heavily populated areas, itself a war crime - against their own people.

A Hamas spokesman said, “We call on our noble resistance in Gaza to keep their fingers on the trigger, to keep their rockets on standby to target the enemy’s fortresses and military and vital structures.”

The biggest surprise was that the IDF decided not to respond, presumably in an attempt to deescalate the situation.


Elsewhere, following a meeting with Mahmoud Abbas the Electoral Commission announced that it has provided 11 polling centres in Jerusalem suburbs to enable 150,000 Jerusalemites to vote in the election, leaving just 6,300 to vote at post offices in East Jerusalem. Why are the 6,300 not doing the same as the other 150,000? It seems the PA cares more about the principle of physically opening polls in East Jerusalem rather than ensuring people’s ability to vote in the election.

The same is also clear from comments made yesterday by current PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, who said, “Some European diplomats proposed to have online elections in East Jerusalem. The issue is not numbers; it is political. It has to do with Israeli recognition that Palestinians in East Jerusalem have the right to vote and stand for elections.”

The Israelis have still to make any comment on the matter.

Shtayyeh expressed hope that the election will end the Fatah-Hamas divide and “bring democracy back on track” for the Palestinians. He also said, "If Hamas is part of the government, they will have to adopt the PLO political platform of “passive resistance.”

Good luck with that. And even if they pay lip-service to it, it will need a lot more than luck to convince anyone to trust them, as the missiles of this week have shown.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Welcome

Join the Everton conversation today.
Fewer ads, full access, completely free.

🛒 Visit Shop

Support Grand Old Team by checking out our latest Everton gear!
Back
Top