In the coverage of the present tragedy I see and hear many lies, half-truths, and partial or misunderstood facts. One such is that the Palestinian people elected Hamas in the last elections held in 2006, therefore they support terror. Like many glib answers and chanted slogans, the truth is much more complicated.
The 2006 elections were the 2nd to be held in Palestine - the first were in 1995/6 as part of the Oslo Accords which Hamas tried to destroy by firing missiles into Israel. They then boycotted the elections but by 2006 they had changed their minds and put up candidates for the parliamentary elections. They didn't run a candidate in the 2005 presidential election won by Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas.
The Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority (PA) opposed Hamas's participation but were forced to relent by the Bush Administration. The US wanted have Islamist voices heard in the election, but without wanting a Hamas win. They were reassured by successive opinion polls which showed that Hamas would be soundly beaten, so it came as a terrible shock when the results were announced: Hamas received 44.45% of the vote and won 74 of the 132 seats, with Fatah winning 45 seats, the smaller parties and independents 13.
Suspicion immediately fell upon the opinion poll organisation when it was found that the head of the group was the brother of a leading figure in Hamas - did he deliberately reduce the predicted level of support for Hamas to ensure its place on the ballot? He is still the head of the organisation.
More realistically, there were three reasons for the result.
1. Hamas's stated desire to destroy Israel and annul any peace treaty.
2. Corruption in the PA and ruling Fatah party.
3. Splits in Fatah.
1. This was, and still is, the bedrock of Hamas's support, which includes plenty of non-Islamists.
2. To exploit the perceived corruption in the PA, Hamas ran as the “Change and Reform Bloc.” Their slogan was: “Islam is the solution. One hand builds, another resists. Yes to reform, yes to change.” Gazan leader Ismail Haniyeh vowed to live on a poor person's diet of ‘olive oil and dried herbs’. Now Chairman of Hamas, he has long since shook off his asceticism and the multimillionaire now flits between Ankara, where his family are, and Doha where, according to PA controlled media, he indulges his predilection for expensive East European hookers. At the time, though, it was a successful strategy.
3. The election was run on a first past the post basis (consequently later changed to a form of PR). Fatah was so riven with splits that in most seats there was an official candidate opposed by two or three disgruntled Fatah members who ran as independents, most of them with a powerful local base. This meant the Hamas candidate would often sneak a victory against the Fatah vote which was split three ways. This was the main reason for Fatah's failure and Hamas's success.
From this it is clear that while there is substantial support amongst the Palestinian public for the destruction of the Jewish state - a consequence of countless years of being bombarded with antisemitic rhetoric from all quarters - that was not the reason why Hamas won the election, and therefore their victory does not mean that all Palestinians support Hamas or their aims.
After the election a unity government was formed under President Abbas, with Hamas taking key posts. However, the international community, led by the Quartet (the US, the EU, Russia and the UN) demanded that Hamas recognise the Oslo Accords, recognise the State of Israel and renounce violence. Hamas refused to do any of these, leading to a boycott of the government by the international community.
In June 2007, after a week of deadly street clashes, Abbas dismissed the unity government and declared a state of emergency in Gaza. In a short but vicious war Hamas fighters routed the PA forces and took control, a move Abbas condemned as a coup. A 'cold war' has ensued ever since despite at least 14 attempts at reconciliation.
The closest to a reconciliation was in 2021 when Abbas was persuaded to call another election following lengthy negotiations which saw Hamas agree not to run a candidate in the presidential elections, and to the formation of a unity government led by Fatah with Hamas taking no important roles. In return, Hamas would be admitted to the PLO, still the official internationally recognised representitive of the Palestinian people.
(I should add that none of the big Hamas names were standing as candidates, but I don't think it requires too much intelligence to work out what they would have been up to).
Fatah were once again split and facing accusations of corruption (the latter now applied to Hamas too), but the change in the voting system ensured that there would be no clear winner in the parliamentary election. Opinion polls gave Hamas a slight lead over the three Fatah parties, but it was so close that all could have changed in the last few weeks.
Unfortunately, with every opinion poll showing that the unpopular Abbas would lose badly in the presidential election, no matter who he ran against, he cancelled the elections with only weeks to go, having been given the green light to do so by the new Biden Administration.
The importance of that decision should not be underestimated. We'll never know what would have happened after the elections or how long the unity government would have lasted - a government that included both Hamas and Fatah would be neither truly national nor truly Islamist but a forced arrangement between contradictory and competing forces pulling in different directions. One thing that is certain, though, is that the May 21 war, which occurred just weeks after the cancellation, would never have happened. And it's just possible - just - the world would not look as bleak as it does today.
Finally, one name to look out for when the current horror ends: Mohammed Dahlan.
