@peteblue you're taking a pasting here mate so fair play for sticking in there but isn't this mess with the NI border actually really simple to sum up:
At least a major part of the Brexit argument was based on "we'll take back control of our borders" - agreed?
But if the NI border remains open and without checks (as the UK has promised) then the above is never going to happen is it?
The obvious solution of border checks at the UK mainland has been ruled out thanks to the DUP.
So we are just stuck in this mess because the Leave campaign either wilfully ignored the NI border issue in the EU referendum campaign or simply didn't think it important.
I know
@Joey66 laughs at this but mark my words - Northern Ireland will stop Brexit.
It may or may not stop Brexit. The wheels have been set in motion to deliberately undermine the Good Friday Agreement with the Counter Terrorism and Border Security Bill going through parliament. The border checks on people and goods being proposed on the island of Ireland will disrupt trade, and damage both the Northern Irish and Ireland's economy. Rees Mogg's and Johnson's attitude to the border issue sums up a spitefulness because the GFA was standing in their way from achieving their goal. The UK cannot leave the EU without taking control of its borders and will have to check goods coming into the UK, on the island of Ireland and at UK ports. But to spite their face they are prepared to bite of their nose off their nose with the Counter Terrorism and Border Security Bill along with other border checks on goods that will also cause long delays at Dover and other UK ports. That is why there are plans to turn parts of the M20 into a lorry park. Dover doesn't have the facilities to hold goods and a backlog will develop in the holding areas that will be required to check documentation. Whats more, "The boss of the port of
Calais has said there could be tailbacks up to 30 miles in all directions and potential food shortages in Britain if a Brexit deal involves mandatory customs and sanitary checks at the French ferry terminal". July 2015 was just an example of the potential hiccup to trade and the adverse impact on the UK. "He said Calais could return to the havoc of July 2015 when truckers were trapped in their cabs for three days in searing heat with 30-mile queues from Calais to Dunkirk, 25 miles inland to St Omer and 20 miles west to Boulogne. “I am worried about the slowdown of traffic if there are controls. Imagine 2m trucks being controlled in Calais,” he said, in reference to the 4.3m trucks that use the port in both directions a year". The UK is basically at the mercy of the French when it comes to moving goods outside the UK by road. Any disruption on the French side will be disastrous for the UK as will the checks at Dover due to the Counter Terrorism and Border Security Bill.
Kate Hoey's amendment that it will be 'illegal to have a barrier between Northern Ireland and Great Britain' that was passed through parliament doesn't relate to the reality on the ground. There are border checks on goods at Belfast port on leaving the island of Ireland for the UK and beyond.
There already is an Irish Sea border - Belfast Newsletter Are checking goods documentation at Belfast port now illegal? If Hoey's amendment is to be implemented then it is illegal to ask for and check documentation. Apart from the complaint that lorry drivers have to get to Belfast port 2 hours before, the same at Hull's port, there are no complaints about hold ups and long delays at Belfast port. The choice between smooth trade after Brexit, checks as now at Belfast or long delays at the border on the island of Ireland should have been a no brainer. But the Counter Terrorism and Border Security Bill has put a massive spanner in the works and will lead to long delays at the border on the island of Ireland. UK custom officers will be checking people crossing the border, what do they do with those EU citizens that don't have the correct post Brexit documentation? Detain them in a new 'Calais' until they can be deported?
The economic damage that border checks will cause will also affect the UK. Firstly, the adverse impact on Northern Ireland's economy means the UK treasury will pick up the unemployment tab and have less taxes from an economic downturn. The UK has a trade surplus with Ireland and sells more goods to Ireland than to the whole BRICS countries put together. An economic hit in Ireland will lead to unemployment rising on the UK mainland as trade suffers. Not only that but there is at least £140 billion UK bank lending to the Irish government, businesses and people. An economic hit will impact UK banks immensely. It was due to this UK banking exposure that in 2010, Geroge Osbourne was instrumental in agitating the EU to force Ireland to bail out its banking sector and in particular the Ulster bank, a subsidiary of UK government owned RBS. But that was then. Now if the Irish economy takes a hit due Brexit there will be even louder voices than there were in 2010 against borrowing money to bailout UK banking exposure in Ireland. The UK treasury will have a chose let those banks suffer an economic hit or revive quantative easing money to yet again bailout UK banks.The UK is still owed £9 billion from the 2010 bailout. There was anger then about borrowing to save a UK bank, there will be even more hostility against paying back the £9 billion as the consequences of UK border controls on the island of Ireland.
Furthermore, the Brexit consequence on the island of Ireland will force a reunification vote in Ireland. This could come very quickly after the implementation of border checks on the island of Ireland and the ensuing economic downturn. The result will see the island reunited. And May will go down in history as the British PM that was responsible for uniting the island, something she is well aware of. May has already reneged on her own backstop proposal from December 2017. When she was trying to make the whole of the UK stay in the EU by piggybacking on the back of the Good Friday Agreement because the only alternative to a hard border is special status for Northern Ireland. This would have led to the DUP walking away from their agreement with May and a general election. That duplicity will not be lost on the people on the island of Ireland.
