Current Affairs General US politics (ie, not POTUS related)

[ilikecheese]

Any predictions for tomorrow?

I suspect that, again, the polls will be wrong and will have greatly underestimated Republican turn-out, and that even many of the leaning-blue seats won't be taken. (I don't want this to happen).

Dems pick up between 25-30 house seats.
Reps pick up 1 seat in the senate.
Dems pick up 6-7 governors...which would bring things much more in balance.

One of the interesting ones out there is the AG's around the country. Republicans have pumped a ton of money into AG races. Dem AG's were why Trump's travel ban initially failed as an example of what kind of power they have. One of my favorite tweets of his presidency was the 'I'LL SEE YOU IN COURT' tweet when Washington State's AG filed against the travel ban...Trump lost.

 

[ilikecheese]

when will the results be known?

Some earlier than others. Some we might not know until Wednesday...or later.

 

[ilikecheese]

Some earlier than others. Some we might not know until Wednesday...or later.

Let me be a little more specific @edge.

Polls will be closing as far as I know at 7pm...which means the first polls closing will be midnight your time. So I would imagine by the time you get up on Wednesday you'll see some races called.

 

[Huyton Layne]

George has been dropping yo momma bombs all day

 

[Huyton Layne]

You know what, here you go. Enjoy.

 

[Rook]

I hope I'm wrong about this, but I sense a shift in the accuracy of polls, almost as if it is now a trollish duty to dupe them pesky pollsters with all their fancy statistics and data and predictions.

The trump voters will turn out big time and the Democrats record in big games is way worse than Everton's.

 

[verreauxi]

The trump voters will turn out big time and the Democrats record in big games is way worse than Everton's.

Yeah, my feeling too. I hope I am wrongy-wrong about this though.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

I hope I'm wrong about this, but I sense a shift in the accuracy of polls, almost as if it is now a trollish duty to dupe them pesky pollsters with all their fancy statistics and data and predictions.

See this is what I don’t really get.

The likes of 538 got pilloried for their polling/modelling last cycle, but the result was well within the margin of error.

They were judged as being miles off because the less likely result occurred - but this was based on a shift of 0.06% of the electorate. If that 0.06% voted for Clinton, no one is criticising polling for being way off.

 

[ilikecheese]

See this is what I don’t really get.

The likes of 538 got pilloried for their polling/modelling last cycle, but the result was well within the margin of error.

They were judged as being miles off because the less likely result occurred - but this was based on a shift of 0.06% of the electorate. If that 0.06% voted for Clinton, no one is criticising polling for being way off.

Facts and history will view it that way.

However, facts and history will also show the truth no longer matters. In fact, it will show that agenda driven lies actually rule the world in the moment...history be damned.

 

[abelard]

polls provide a generally accurate measure of what people who respond to polling firms tell them

they don't account for cell phones, or the internet, and they don't account for turnout

the truth is that nobody knows what will happen tomorrow

American politics is a matter of motivation, not persuasion

it is not necessarily a bad thing that we don't know as much as we once thought we did about what voters apparently want

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

The trump voters will turn out big time and the Democrats record in big games is way worse than Everton's.

Unfortunately this

lollollollollol

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Rain in Pittsburgh, windy, but not cold - upper 50s/low 60s. I can't be arsed calculating that in celsius for our UK friends. I think it's going to be like this all over the eastern seaboard.

Not ideal but not cataclysmic weather. I think turnout will still be good. Let's put it this way, when I voted this morning everyone I saw walking out ahead of me was younger than me. Granted, all the retirees wait until after rush hour, but I still am optimistic

 

[Connor]

You can do it, America

 

[dead_soft]

See this is what I don’t really get.

The likes of 538 got pilloried for their polling/modelling last cycle, but the result was well within the margin of error.

They were judged as being miles off because the less likely result occurred - but this was based on a shift of 0.06% of the electorate. If that 0.06% voted for Clinton, no one is criticising polling for being way off.

Because people are woefully misinformed about probability and statistical analysis.
It was true that the most likely outcome was a slim Clinton win, it is also true that Trump won. Trump winning did not prove pollsters wrong.

 

[edge]

just saying on the radio, that there has been a big turn out to vote in states like Texas, does this historically favour on party or the other?