Current Affairs EU In or Out

[degsy]

For the love of...

That's NOT what I'm saying. I'm saying you have to at least put emphasis on something being carefully thought through, when set against some idiots just shouting stuff in the ether loud enough to be convincing to the average Joe Public.

In the EU debates, you had Gove actually say the words "people are sick of experts".

It's actually insane. I mean, the clue is in the word "expert" really - what's the point in knowing anything about anything if what you say is completely ignored because you bothered to actually learn about it?

We live in a disgustingly stupid world, infested by idiots.

I think you pretty much did say exactly that...but I'm an Idiot who doesn't believe 'Experts' all the time

In Court the two parties 'hire' expert witnesses who will say abc Vs xyz
Then in the next case the same 'experts' will say xyz Vs abc
Any Expert view is a bit of a movable feast and it's 'beauty' LIES (pun intended) in the eye of the beholder...mostly

52% of the beholders chose NOT to behold it.

 

[Tubey]

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales volumes in October were up 7.4% from a year earlier.
On a monthly basis, sales jumped 1.9% from September - a much stronger increase than economists had forecast.
October's autumnal conditions boosted clothing sales.
Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "Clothing sales in particular were strong, perhaps reflecting the cooler weather prompting a re-stocking of consumers' winter wardrobes."
The ONS also said that internet sales posted the strongest growth for five years, jumping almost 27%.
"Non-store sales have surged over the last months, rising by 4.1% in September and 3.6% in October, showing no weakening in the trend away from spending on the high street to online shopping," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The figures suggest consumer confidence remains robust in the face of uncertainty caused by Brexit.

Pete, the effects haven't started yet. The banks won't start to consider relocation until Article 50 is triggered for one, and neither will most businesses.

You won't be able to find anything like that three years from now. It's an irrelevance to state it at this point - the government can borrow more to ease the short term costs, but only so much; after that, the hurt will begin and is absolutely inevitable.

 

[Joey66]

Pete, the effects haven't started yet. The banks won't start to consider relocation until Article 50 is triggered for one, and neither will most businesses.

You won't be able to find anything like that three years from now. It's an irrelevance to state it at this point - the government can borrow more to ease the short term costs, but only so much; after that, the hurt will begin and is absolutely inevitable.

lol More gloom and doom from a avid remainer every time its getting so bad the trade figures and growth, and unemployment just get better!

 

[peteblue]

So, essentially, you're not interested in anything any expert says.

Let me put it this way - I'll take what the CBI and pretty much any notable professional body on the subject matter say after many, many studies more seriously than one crackpot on GOT.

I still value people having expertise on a subject to form my own views. You clearly don't. So be it. But at this point, if you really think we're "pissing" £8bn away with it going in the EU's "back pocket" with nothing in return, you're deluded and akin to someone denying climate change based on a "gut feeling".

The CBI wanted us to join the Euro........

 

[Old Blue 2]

1. So, essentially, you're not interested in anything any expert says.

2. Let me put it this way - I'll take what the CBI and pretty much any notable professional body on the subject matter say after many, many studies more seriously than one crackpot on GOT.

3. I still value people having expertise on a subject to form my own views. You clearly don't. So be it. But at this point, if you really think we're "pissing" £8bn away with it going in the EU's "back pocket" with nothing in return, you're deluded and akin to someone denying climate change based on a "gut feeling".

1. I make my own mind up regarding comments made by any expert, in the light of my own knowledge of the subject, what my views are, and my appraisal of what an individual has advanced.. I could give you an example in my own sphere of interest, but I will not do so.

2. Fine, if you wish to believe slavishly what financial 'experts' say. But those same 'experts' have made cock-up after cock-up for years with their evaluations and their views (just look at what that goon Osbourne was saying pre-Referendum day, for example). Thank you for calling me a crackpot, such a compliment...

3. On the contrary, I DO value an individual's expertise. For you to say I don't, when you know hardly anything about me, shows that you are clearly denigrating me. See my point '1' above. To say I'm deluded is also a derogatory, insulting, and denigrating remark.

 

[degsy]

The CBI wanted us to join the Euro........

dodged a bullet there and no mistake

 

[Tubey]

1. I make my own mind up regarding comments made by any expert, in the light of my own knowledge of the subject, what my views are, and my appraisal of what an individual has advanced.. I could give you an example in my own sphere of interest, but I will not do so.

2. Fine, if you wish to believe slavishly what financial 'experts' say. But those same 'experts' have made cock-up after cock-up for years with their evaluations and their views (just look at what that goon Osbourne was saying pre-Referendum day, for example). Thank you for calling me a crackpot, such a compliment...

3. On the contrary, I DO value an individual's expertise. For you to say I don't, when you know hardly anything about me, shows that you are clearly denigrating me. See my point '1' above. To say I'm deluded is also a derogatory, insulting, and denigrating remark.

You said the fee we pay to the single market had no return, so yes, I stick to the term "crackpot". Even most Leave supporters recognise there's an obvious and large economic benefit to being in it - you, for whatever reason your own head comes up with, don't. So be it.

 

[Tubey]

The CBI wanted us to join the Euro........

Yes, and do you know what I did at the time of that debate? Looked at everything I could and came to the conclusion the Euro was a bad idea.

It was surprisingly not difficult for me to avoid jumping to a conclusion and rigidly sticking to it no matter what.

 

[peteblue]

Pete, the effects haven't started yet. The banks won't start to consider relocation until Article 50 is triggered for one, and neither will most businesses.

You won't be able to find anything like that three years from now. It's an irrelevance to state it at this point - the government can borrow more to ease the short term costs, but only so much; after that, the hurt will begin and is absolutely inevitable.

If there is one thing I have learnt in life only death is inevitable, everything else, especially economic performance, is often in the lap of the gods...

Im sure that the banks are doing their planning scenarios depending on the various outcomes, but it's worth remembering that most of a banks business does not requires access to the EU, and even that can be accommodated by putting a small office in Ireland....

The reason why the sales performance is important at the moment is because it reflects the confidence of the UK people. The doom and gloom that certain people and bodies try to espouse have been rejected and many remainers are even starting to believe in the UK potential....

Projections of doom have been swept aside. The projections presented for immediately after the vote have disappeared and indeed it is the EU and not the UK that is suffering. The USA election result will only help the UK.......

 

[Old Blue 2]

Pete, the effects haven't started yet. The banks won't start to consider relocation until Article 50 is triggered for one, and neither will most businesses.

You won't be able to find anything like that three years from now. It's an irrelevance to state it at this point - the government can borrow more to ease the short term costs, but only so much; after that, the hurt will begin and is absolutely inevitable.

In bold above: utter, utter rubbish! A premise that has no foundation in fact whatsoever. Total 100% speculation. And you call me a 'crackpot'! Take a good look at yourself, mate!!!

 

[peteblue]

Yes, and do you know what I did at the time of that debate? Looked at everything I could and came to the conclusion the Euro was a bad idea.

It was surprisingly not difficult for me to avoid jumping to a conclusion and rigidly sticking to it no matter what.

But the CBI said it was good and that's the point. These people are not always right, they are in fact rarely right and that is why the term 'expert' has been devalued unfortunately. Two doctors diagnosing a patient will probably come to the same conclusion because the evidence is directly in front of them and procedures are proven. Two economists diagnosing the economy will invariably disagree and produce two completely differing projections.......

 

[Old Blue 2]

You said the fee we pay to the single market had no return, so yes, I stick to the term "crackpot". Even most Leave supporters recognise there's an obvious and large economic benefit to being in it - you, for whatever reason your own head comes up with, don't. So be it.

In or out of the EU, there will be advantages/disadvantages to the GDP. Whatever figure may show as being beneficial to the GDP as a result of our present membership of the EU might be totally eclipsed by the benfit of worldwide trade post-EU membership. You cannot prove otherwise.

You, sir, are the crackpot in this discussion, since you will not accept any point or premise made by myself or anyone else who does not hold the same view as you. What you have advanced over recent pages is an object lession on how NOT to hold a discussion. Rather, it showcases an example of someone who bad-mouths and denigrates someone who puts forward points which cannot be disproved. Sad really...

 

[Tubey]

In bold above: utter, utter rubbish! A premise that has no foundation in fact whatsoever. Total 100% speculation. And you call me a 'crackpot'! Take a good look at yourself, mate!!!

It's speculation based on the results of many forecasts - it's not from thin air. You have ONE outlier suggesting otherwise, whereas everyone else suggests economic harm from the result. When we leave, growth starts to trickle, so you won't have such articles expressing such positive results.

https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-3870-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f

But as stated, you have no interest in such research.

 

[Tubey]

But the CBI said it was good and that's the point. These people are not always right, they are in fact rarely right and that is why the term 'expert' has been devalued unfortunately. Two doctors diagnosing a patient will probably come to the same conclusion because the evidence is directly in front of them and procedures are proven. Two economists diagnosing the economy will invariably disagree and produce two completely differing projections.......

Again, that's why you take everything you can and come to a conclusion based on the likelihood of the arguments presented.

https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-3870-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f

When you have so many institutions suggesting one outcome, you have to have pretty strong reasons to go against the grain, otherwise you're arguing the contrary without applying logic.

When you have this statement...

What practically all of the assessments conclude is that by 2030 the nation will be poorer outside the EU than it otherwise would be.

... then you have to look at why they're coming to that outcome and deem whether it's a reasonable conclusion. To me, their conclusions are extremely reasonable, to the point where I do honestly equate anyone dismissing it as akin to denying climate change at this point. Yes, they aren't concrete stats, and perhaps none of those models will play out, but the direction of traffic will almost certainly be largely the same on this one at the end of it.

 

[Old Blue 2]

It's speculation based on the results of many forecasts - it's not from thin air. You have ONE outlier suggesting otherwise, whereas everyone else suggests economic harm from the result. When we leave, growth starts to trickle, so you won't have such articles expressing such positive results.

https://www.ft.com/content/68c61094-3870-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f

But as stated, you have no interest in such research.

Oh I have interest in research like you wouldn't believe!!!

Speculation! QED. What more do I need to say!!! Aaaand here you go again: "...When we leave, growth starts to trickle..." Do you not take in a single thing I have said about speculation/opinion as opposed to facts??? You say things that, again, at the risk of repeating myself, have no foundation in fact whatsoever.

Let me give you a famous military maxim: NEVER REINFORCE FAILURE. You would do well to note this in this discussion. It may stop you from being a crackpot...