Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%
  • Total voters
    1,013
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tsubaki said:
I see the ERG are going around telling everyone that this deal could lead to no deal in 2020.

lol
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The desperation to back this deal from them is staggering. They know they're in a horrible situation because they've previously hung their hats on the DUP, and Farage has mopped up the Brexiteer extremist wing by just slamming the deal outright.

Some of the most immoral disgusting people I've ever laid my eyes on.
 
tsubaki said:
No, he hasn't. He has gone for the shortest of short term fixes here, relying on MPs signing up to any Brexit deal because of their cowardice.

Johnson has signed up to a deal that even May would have refused as being unacceptable, which very few people knew the contents of until yesterday, and is relying on his friends in the media to push it as a success until Saturday - hoping that noone prominent asks him why this deal puts the agents of a foreign power at internal checkpoints in the UK, or why the UK would have to pay rebates on EU-imposed customs duties at those checkpoints, or why he is now paying the billion pound a month that he was accusing Corbyn of wanting to pay, or why he has permanently put a border between the UK and Northern Ireland, or why he has probably just guaranteed that any investment that does actually come to the UK after Brexit is going to go to NI rather than anywhere else (because of the overwhelming advantages that area now enjoys compared to the mainland).

If this deal passes, and it might, people will very quickly realise what it involves and he (and they) will be punished for it.
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I am quite optimistic, but I'm not sure it plays out the way you think.

Being as objective as possible, Brexit was never going to deliver a comparable outcome to remaining. Leaving an institution will never allow you to leave with a comparable never mind better deal. The question was always how much worse do people accept to be seen as democrats at a political level, and ultimately his far do benefits such as control over migration (or a romanticised view of the past) outweigh the worse deal.

Within that context, May's deal was ok. She got "control" over migration. We leave. It got slaughtered and subjectively I felt it a bad deal, but it was ok. The conservatives made a number of tactical errors, not least the public hammering of the deal. It didn't benefit them, it benefitted Farage and the BXP. I think that reality has sunk in after they sank to 14% of the vote in the Euro elections.

It appears most of the ERG are on message currently. They have decided the Conservative Party is more important than Brexit (or the Brexit they want) and more important than unionism in Ireland (or even maintaining the Union).

As a result this deal will not be slammed anything like May's deal was in the press. From the BBC to the msm Johnson will play the hero of Brexit line. He will look the man who rescued Brexit and will look Prime ministerial.

Labour have fallen into the trap hook line and sinker. We could have been fighting an election campaign, against a mortally wounded Johnson with no progress on any deal. Instead they made the miscalculation a political charlatan would screw over the wealthiest in society by obsessing over a No Deal. They have listened to the Blairite core of the party who have once again called it completely wrong. The inertia has created a void that Johnson has stepped into. Without courage you will never win anything.

It's not all over and there will be lots of challenges. Farage remains an astute operator and there will be a section who agree with him. He still has no majority. Corbyn still has a very good domestic agenda. However the last 3-4 weeks have been a massive calamity for Labour and there's no point trying to deflect from that.

Best case scenario, the deal falls tomorrow (as I have said last night, I don't believe it will) and we have an election. The strategy of characterising Johnson as a No Deal brexit man needs to go though. That has been a complete waste of 3-4 weeks.
 
Tubey said:
The desperation to back this deal from them is staggering. They know they're in a horrible situation because they've previously hung their hats on the DUP, and Farage has mopped up the Brexiteer extremist wing by just slamming the deal outright.

Some of the most immoral disgusting people I've ever laid my eyes on.
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They have to be, in order to stand out as especially immoral and disgusting compared to other Tory MPs.
 
peteblue said:
We voted to Leave, the Remainers insisted we didn’t know what we voted for, then insulted every Leave voter with an ever growing range of insults. Then the remainer mob in the Commons decided to sabotage the negotiations and put every single block in the way of getting a sensible deal in conjunction with the EU, culminating in the most self defeating surrender act ever dreamt up.......
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That's revisionism Pete. If the leaders of the Brexit movement; Farage, BoJo and Gove all said no deal was out of the question and that we would get a good deal (with nothing being said about a border down the Irish Sea), then that is what the majority based their decision on. You and others may take that to include no deal but you can't say that is the same for everyone. The so called 'surrender' act was a sensible law due to not having a sensible government. The EU would have just gone ta-ra, see you to the UK to leave on a no deal before it would do anything to damage the integrity of the single market.

People need the chance to confirm this via a second referendum with the facts and that will be true democracy. They may still go your way or they may not, but least it will be done with full knowledge of the situation.
 
The binman chronicles said:
That's revisionism Pete. If the leaders of the Brexit movement; Farage, BoJo and Gove all said no deal was out of the question and that we would get a good deal (with nothing being said about a border down the Irish Sea), then that is what the majority based their decision on. You and others may take that to include no deal but you can't say that is the same for everyone. The so called 'surrender' act was a sensible law due to not having a sensible government. The EU would have just gone ta-ra, see you to the UK to leave on a no deal before it would do anything to damage the integrity of the single market.

People need the chance to confirm this via a second referendum with the facts and that will be true democracy. They may still go your way or they may not, but least it will be done with full knowledge of the situation.
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To do that requires that this Government be removed though; they must not and cannot be trusted to run it properly.
 
The binman chronicles said:
That's revisionism Pete. If the leaders of the Brexit movement; Farage, BoJo and Gove all said no deal was out of the question and that we would get a good deal (with nothing being said about a border down the Irish Sea), then that is what the majority based their decision on. You and others may take that to include no deal but you can't say that is the same for everyone. The so called 'surrender' act was a sensible law due to not having a sensible government. The EU would have just gone ta-ra, see you to the UK to leave on a no deal before it would do anything to damage the integrity of the single market.

People need the chance to confirm this via a second referendum with the facts and that will be true democracy. They may still go your way or they may not, but least it will be done with full knowledge of the situation.
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It's for the voter to do their own due diligence before they tick the box.Having full control of immigration could never work with a border-less Ireland,at a general election if you can't be bothered reading the party manifesto of your choice and doing some simple homework to see if it's possible or a tissue of lies,then you get what you deserve,oh and trusting politicians of any hue is a big mistake.
 
Tubey said:
It shouldn't pass, but I have a horrible feeling there's going to be a sizeable amount of abstentions here.

I think the real number to pass will be closer to 315. If so, it could go 2-3 votes either way.
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Unfortunately it will be tighter than it really should be for the deal he has brought back. You can just sense everyone's resolve starting to weaken to a point where they could do anything.

Not that it really matters to Johnson, they take the deal he will be lauded as the person who got it done (even though we will probably embark on 3 or 4 years of squabbling with the detail thereafter) or if not it was the nasty opposition that stopped it from happening.
 
I think it'll scrape through. If that happens Cummings will have outmaneuvered the opposition. Johnson could then win the next election with a healthy majority with a government full of mental right wingers. We end up leaving with no deal in 14 months time.
 
Odds are pretty close because of the statements from Labour MP's like Sarah Champion and John Mann today, but we wont know until the ammendments are selected by Bercow tomorrow and what the outcome of them are

Not leaving by 31st - 1/2 odds
Deal passed and leaving - 8/5 odds
 
I'm sort of resigned to this passing and then the tories getting a decent -ish majority in a general election, just have to put up with it for 5 years...hopefully labour will elect a decent leader and kick them out then

Nearly as bad has having to accept liverpool winning the league...oh well
 
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