Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Joey66]

Welcome back Bungle

 

[Joey66]

Freedom For Croydon.

Freedom for Scotland oh thats what they want.........

 

[dwightschrute]

Looks like hes prorogued today and not Thursday to avoid PMQ and the liaison committee tomorrow and hes already been shown to be terrible at it and would lose more face.

Think he would've put his foot in it at the committee and been in contempt of parliament

 

[Barnfred 55]

The French have said they could veto lengthening the talks, the French foreign minister told reporters "We are not going to do this (extend the deadline) every three months"

And that's going to be the problem for remain MPs with Parliament not even close to agreeing on anything, the EU somewhere along the line are going to say "enough is enough" it might actually come to a point where they say we have to bow out with no deal.

I think you could be right mate. The EU are the people who are in control of this, but even they can't control some things. They seem to have been united so far, but all it takes is one of the 27 member states to veto the extension to article 50 and it won't happen. In which case, despite any laws we may have passed in the UK, the fall back position is that we leave with no deal.

I personally can't see this happening though, as member states tend to toe the EU party line. But France is possibly the one exception as, like the UK, they see themselves as policy makers rather than order takers. Still, I see them coming in line, but what I also see is the EU imposing conditions in place. I believe they would insist on a longer extension, maybe 6 months, and I also believe they will insist on the UK either having a second referendum or a general election during that extension. I actually don't blame them in the slightest for doing either. In fact I believe both conditions should have been included in the no deal bill currently being passed by parliament, which only strengthens my belief that the current group of MPs we have in parliament at the moment have little grasp of the bigger picture.

As it is, the fact that the EU will be (if it happens) imposing these conditions on the UK will play right into the hands of the leave movement. As will the actual act of extending article 50 in the first place. Both of these can only lead to strengthening the resolve of leave voters, especially those traditional labour voters many of who are currently no doubt fighting with their conscience as to which way to vote.

That's why I can't understand why the opposition won't go to the country on October 14th. The no deal bill will be made law today, and an amendment can easily be added to the GE bill not to change the date from October 14th. The Remain side have a much bigger chance of getting a cross party majority in parliament than if they leave the election until after October 31st. Yes they will have had the satisfaction of seeing Johnson eat his own words and go begging to the EU for another extension, which he will do despite his protestations (lies) to date, but you can guarantee that he will do his best to use this as another blunt instrument to beat Corbyn with.

The other positive to an earlier election from the Remain side, which nobody seems to have touched on yet, is if you do get a rogue country amongst the 27 who veto the extension, then if Remain have a cross party majority it can pass immediate legislation to revoke article 50, thus avoiding a no deal Brexit.

@bicycleheader. I have copied you in as we exchanged posts on this subject the other day.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Boris Johnson would not win an election outright, polling seen by No 10 suggests

Polling and modelling discussed by senior No 10 figures suggests the Tories would win around 295 to 300 seats in an election.

news.sky.com

I can see that getting worse for Johnson if we dont leave in October.

Bloody Sky are copying my posts!!

They will lose the Tory seats in Scotland due to Boris being in charge and no RD as the head of the party north of the border.

To be 36 down already with a divisive leader wanting a hard brexit isn't going to get the numbers.

I can see the Tories getting around 295-305 seats at the next election

 

[davek]

Bloody Sky are copying my posts!!

Ha Ha. You are our "No.10 insider".

 

[Barnfred 55]

...it’s not, but the British Press fail to ask the obvious, fail to hold him to account.

Varadka saying he’s seen no proposals from Johnson on the Back Stop, supporting Amber Rudd’s view that they’ve not been concentrating on a deal. He wants a no deal. Johnson is not only misleading Parliament, he’s misleading the Country.

What he wants is an election Eggs. Everything he has done so far has been to that end, and to raise the rhetoric against Corbyn so he can win over the Labour leave vote, probably to the benefit of the Brexit party. He doesn't just want the extension to article 50, he actually instigated it by proroguing parliament.

He may or may not prefer a no deal. I just don't know with the guy as he lies so often you never know what his real beliefs are. I believe he is lying about the new deal, he's lying about not asking for an extension, and I believe he actually wants an election after 31st October when the country will still be members with a new extension dictated to us by the EU. I also believe he has every intention of coming to a pre election agreement with the Brexit party so the latter doesn't dilute the Tory vote in important Tory constituents.

Everything we are seeing now is play acting, manipulation and yes, deliberately misleading the country. It's a gamble, but he's hoping one that will lead to a Tory/BP coalition government with a clear working majority. Perhaps we will then find out what his real intentions are.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I think you could be right mate. The EU are the people who are in control of this, but even they can't control some things. They seem to have been united so far, but all it takes is one of the 27 member states to veto the extension to article 50 and it won't happen. In which case, despite any laws we may have passed in the UK, the fall back position is that we leave with no deal.

I personally can't see this happening though, as member states tend to toe the EU party line. But France is possibly the one exception as, like the UK, they see themselves as policy makers rather than order takers. Still, I see them coming in line, but what I also see is the EU imposing conditions in place. I believe they would insist on a longer extension, maybe 6 months, and I also believe they will insist on the UK either having a second referendum or a general election during that extension. I actually don't blame them in the slightest for doing either. In fact I believe both conditions should have been included in the no deal bill currently being passed by parliament, which only strengthens my belief that the current group of MPs we have in parliament at the moment have little grasp of the bigger picture.

As it is, the fact that the EU will be (if it happens) imposing these conditions on the UK will play right into the hands of the leave movement. As will the actual act of extending article 50 in the first place. Both of these can only lead to strengthening the resolve of leave voters, especially those traditional labour voters many of who are currently no doubt fighting with their conscience as to which way to vote.

That's why I can't understand why the opposition won't go to the country on October 14th. The no deal bill will be made law today, and an amendment can easily be added to the GE bill not to change the date from October 14th. The Remain side have a much bigger chance of getting a cross party majority in parliament than if they leave the election until after October 31st. Yes they will have had the satisfaction of seeing Johnson eat his own words and go begging to the EU for another extension, which he will do despite his protestations (lies) to date, but you can guarantee that he will do his best to use this as another blunt instrument to beat Corbyn with.

The other positive to an earlier election from the Remain side, which nobody seems to have touched on yet, is if you do get a rogue country amongst the 27 who veto the extension, then if Remain have a cross party majority it can pass immediate legislation to revoke article 50, thus avoiding a no deal Brexit.

@bicycleheader. I have copied you in as we exchanged posts on this subject the other day.

Apologies. That should have been @The binman chronicles copied in. My bad.

 

[Jebus_lives]

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

I think you could be right mate. The EU are the people who are in control of this, but even they can't control some things. They seem to have been united so far, but all it takes is one of the 27 member states to veto the extension to article 50 and it won't happen. In which case, despite any laws we may have passed in the UK, the fall back position is that we leave with no deal.

I personally can't see this happening though, as member states tend to toe the EU party line. But France is possibly the one exception as, like the UK, they see themselves as policy makers rather than order takers. Still, I see them coming in line, but what I also see is the EU imposing conditions in place. I believe they would insist on a longer extension, maybe 6 months, and I also believe they will insist on the UK either having a second referendum or a general election during that extension. I actually don't blame them in the slightest for doing either. In fact I believe both conditions should have been included in the no deal bill currently being passed by parliament, which only strengthens my belief that the current group of MPs we have in parliament at the moment have little grasp of the bigger picture.

As it is, the fact that the EU will be (if it happens) imposing these conditions on the UK will play right into the hands of the leave movement. As will the actual act of extending article 50 in the first place. Both of these can only lead to strengthening the resolve of leave voters, especially those traditional labour voters many of who are currently no doubt fighting with their conscience as to which way to vote.

That's why I can't understand why the opposition won't go to the country on October 14th. The no deal bill will be made law today, and an amendment can easily be added to the GE bill not to change the date from October 14th. The Remain side have a much bigger chance of getting a cross party majority in parliament than if they leave the election until after October 31st. Yes they will have had the satisfaction of seeing Johnson eat his own words and go begging to the EU for another extension, which he will do despite his protestations (lies) to date, but you can guarantee that he will do his best to use this as another blunt instrument to beat Corbyn with.

The other positive to an earlier election from the Remain side, which nobody seems to have touched on yet, is if you do get a rogue country amongst the 27 who veto the extension, then if Remain have a cross party majority it can pass immediate legislation to revoke article 50, thus avoiding a no deal Brexit.

@bicycleheader. I have copied you in as we exchanged posts on this subject the other day.

There must come a point mate where the EU fervently point out to Parliament that they haven't been able to agree on a deal for over 3 years now, so what good would an extension do when an agreement in Parliament looks as far off as ever.

I do agree with you though that if they do grant us an extension they will say that 3 months won't be long enough because they know after that 3 months we'll be back asking for another 3 months, also, I agree mate that they will insert some stipulations into the agreed extension.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Apologies. That should have been @The binman chronicles copied in. My bad.

I still see as a hospital pass. Although you are right there are negatives as well as positives in waiting until afterwards. I think the Tories would be able to weaponise the brexit vote more during a GE if it's before the extension date, as it will be a simple vote Tory and you come out of the EU in a week and a bit time. Afterwards some may start to lose hope that it will ever happen and plus the fact BoJo has to go cap in hand to the EU will cause his luster to diminish further.

 

[Barnfred 55]

There must come a point mate where the EU fervently point out to Parliament that they haven't been able to agree on a deal for over 3 years now, so what good would an extension do when an agreement in Parliament looks as far off as ever.

I do agree with you though that if they do grant us an extension they will say that 3 months won't be long enough because they know after that 3 months we'll be back asking for another 3 months, also, I agree mate that they will insert some stipulations into the agreed extension.

Oh I think there is a real danger that one, or maybe even more, of the 27 have genuinely had enough of it all and are at least thinking about stopping an extension. I just think there's enough pressure being brought from European business's to avoid a no deal. But I do think this will be the last extension given which is why they will impose the restrictions.

And the fact that they are being imposed on us gives the impression, correctly in my opinion, that we are being dictated to. The opposition really have dropped a clanger here by not requesting a longer extension and not inserting their own self imposed conditions for a referendum or election.

We really do have a bunch of clowns in parliament at the moment.

 

[Ruairi77]

If there’s another extension and GE is it not likely that the conservatives will form a coalition government with the Brexit party and find themselves in the exact same position that they were in with the DUP and this nonsense just happens again on Jan 31st?

 

[Barnfred 55]

I still see as a hospital pass. Although you are right there are negatives as well as positives in waiting until afterwards. I think the Tories would be able to weaponise the brexit vote more during a GE if it's before the extension date, as it will be a simple vote Tory and you come out of the EU in a week and a bit time. Afterwards some may start to lose hope that it will ever happen and plus the fact BoJo has to go cap in hand to the EU will cause his luster to diminish further.

I see it having the opposite effect, as Johnson will undoubtedly deflect the full blame on a certain Mr Corbyn. Remainers will see this for what it is. Leave voters, specifically Labour orientated leave voters, could very well take a different view on things.

Anyway I guess we're going to find out if my thoughts are correct, because it seems certain now we'll have an autumn GE sometime after October 31st. And beforehand we'd have had an extension to article 50, very possibly with amendments imposed by the EU.(An absolute certainty IMO)

I agree with you that the Tories will likely lose many seats, and I'd be surprised if they get as many as 300. This election will be won and lost on how many seats the Brexit party are able to take off Labour. Johnson knows this which is why almost everything he is doing at the moment is playing to these Labour leave voters. Whilst the Labour party seem to be doing the exact opposite.

 

[Toast]

Jog on Bercow.

Clown.