Current Affairs EU In or Out

[The binman chronicles]

You Gov poll has the Tories on a 14% lead.

I wouldn't trust it, only old people stop to give voting intentions.

More seriously, BoJo's rep will take a hit when he can't get out of the EU at the end of October and if he campaigns on a no deal the truth of what will be involved will come out. Plus the longer he is PM the more time he has to do stupid things.

 

[Tubey]

Yes. And Plaid Cymru. They need to be disciplined in this election to come. It was done in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election with parties standing down and allowing non-Tory votes to go to the strongest party.

If the opposition are serious about bringing no deal down they need a cast iron pact.

It's their fight to lose now. Johnson gifted it all to them the moment his arrogance made him decide to prorogue parliament.

He's done more damage to the Tories than Corbyn ever could have done. A gift from the heavens.

 

[Tubey]

I wouldn't trust it, only old people stop to give voting intentions.

More seriously, BoJo's rep will take a hit when he can't get out of the EU at the end of October and if he campaigns on a no deal the truth of what will be involved will come out. Plus the longer he is PM the more time he has to do stupid things.

This is my thought too. I'm not surprised the Tories lead in polls because A) new leader bounce and B) Corbyn, but Johnson is doing simply too many stupid things for it to be maintained.

Don't get me wrong, it should embarrass Corbyn supporters to see those polls as Labour by rights should be automatically at least 10 and arguably 20 points clear given the shambles the Tories have been in for literally years at this point, but the current polls aren't telling the full story - I expect it to be neck and neck by October and, in an actual election, Corbyn/Labour to be forming a coalition government.

 

[Kev The Rat]

the Rudd resignation is cast in a somewhat different light when you consider she has a majority of less than 400 in her constituency.

more do to with jumping before being pushed (by the electorate)

 

[davek]

I wouldn't trust it, only old people stop to give voting intentions.

More seriously, BoJo's rep will take a hit when he can't get out of the EU at the end of October and if he campaigns on a no deal the truth of what will be involved will come out. Plus the longer he is PM the more time he has to do stupid things.

YouGov methodology is heavily weighted against Labour, its true. However, as straws in the wind these polls tell us that the public are getting restless to get Brexit done...even if it means identifying with a weapon like Johnson. That said, Johnson has been on th campaign trail for weeks and getting his message banged in every day clearly. An election campaign will reel him back in as other issues take centre stage. The feller and his party are bankrupt on that terrain.

There's going to be a battle royal.

 

[davek]

It's their fight to lose now. Johnson gifted it all to them the moment his arrogance made him decide to prorogue parliament.

He's done more damage to the Tories than Corbyn ever could have done. A gift from the heavens.

That unity needs to hold for a long time.

 

[The binman chronicles]

I expect it to be neck and neck by October and, in an actual election, Corbyn/Labour to be forming a coalition government.

It is going to be ever so tight and will depend of course if the Lib Dems want to play ball. They have already been burnt helping one government, however with a chance to stop brexit/limit the damage I think all the other parties hands are tied to step in. I can see the Tories getting around 295-305 seats at the next election which will make them by far the biggest party, so they could even try a minority government for a short while, but it would be just delaying the inevitable.

 

[Armaghtoffee]

Yes. And Plaid Cymru. They need to be disciplined in this election to come. It was done in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election with parties standing down and allowing non-Tory votes to go to the strongest party.

If the opposition are serious about bringing no deal down they need a cast iron pact.

Likewise Ireland, decency calls for the Remain parties to play smart.

 

[Xizor]

S

for all those who claimed leave had no proper plan, don't forget that the EU wargamed us out of all Leave strategies

remember 'no negotiation before notification'

Yes. It's a very fair point. It's almost like the A50 process is designed to protect the EU more than the departing state. Who'd have thought?

 

[Tubey]

By the way, Johnson has a very clear out from all this, but he won't do it due to his selfishness.

The way out is a second referendum, now a clear choice between remain and no deal.

May, when her deal failed the second time in the Commons, should have called a referendum on her deal vs. remain at that time.

Neither of them do it because they are bound by stupid self-imposed red lines and about 'respecting the will of the people'... in a vague, non-binary vote, so vague in fact that it's the reason for this whole mess now.

If Johnson called the referendum now, with his GE being blocked, he could frame it as trusting the people to support him, give an unambiguous vote of intent as to what they want. Win or lose, the issue is settled and he'd go down as, at the very least, a 'decisive' Prime Minister who brought the beginning of the end of all this.

But he won't, because he - probably rightly - believes his better chance of success is a GE because of the unpopularity of no deal. He sees it as the chance to let him continue to be PM, despite the fact in all likelihood we'd still have a similar parliamentary split between leave and remain after a GE, so it'd resolve absolutely nothing.

So, as per usual, Johnson isn't acting in the public interest. It's all about him.

 

[Tubey]

S


Yes. It's a very fair point. It's almost like the A50 process is designed to protect the EU more than the departing state. Who'd have thought?

To be fair it wasn't foreseeable that a massive nation state like ours would trigger it without having the faintest clue as to what we wanted to do.

I find the blame placed on the EU for all this baffling. All they've said is "yeah you can leave, but you have to meet your current financial obligations before you do and, you know, don't restart a massive religious war in Ireland that we managed to miraculously fix a few years ago."

 

[davek]

Likewise Ireland, decency calls for the Remain parties to play smart.

It's a massive test for progressive parties of all stripes. Make no mistake, Johnson represents a dangerous lurch to the Right. He's an extremist who needs stamping out. Anyone who calls thesmelves democratic has to redouble the efffort to put this down.

 

[Xizor]

By the way, Johnson has a very clear out from all this, but he won't do it due to his selfishness.

Another way out is to adopt a far more moderate position, restore the whip to the 21 rebels, try to get people like Boles on board and hope to negate the ERG dropoffs with the Labour lot who pushed to get May's deal back in contention.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

for all those who claimed leave had no proper plan, don't forget that the EU wargamed us out of all Leave strategies

remember 'no negotiation before notification'

The plan was to leave with an easy deal that's all Leavers banged on about in their referendum campaign. Farage Gove Johnson et al. As much as it pains me, the Government PM Cameron and Chancellor Osbourne, both clearly stated there was danger of no deal Brexit, this was met with howls of project fear from prominent leavers...

 

[LinekersLegs]

Last one out turn off the lights!