Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%
  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%

  • Total voters
    1,013
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This is my thought too. I'm not surprised the Tories lead in polls because A) new leader bounce and B) Corbyn, but Johnson is doing simply too many stupid things for it to be maintained.

Don't get me wrong, it should embarrass Corbyn supporters to see those polls as Labour by rights should be automatically at least 10 and arguably 20 points clear given the shambles the Tories have been in for literally years at this point, but the current polls aren't telling the full story - I expect it to be neck and neck by October and, in an actual election, Corbyn/Labour to be forming a coalition government.

There is no way Corbyn beats Johnson in a general election in my mind. Johnson wants these remainer resignations and parliament to keep frustrating him, because it plays well for him with voters.

The only opposition who turns down a gift-wrapped election is one that doubts they can win.
 
By the way, Johnson has a very clear out from all this, but he won't do it due to his selfishness.

The way out is a second referendum, now a clear choice between remain and no deal.

May, when her deal failed the second time in the Commons, should have called a referendum on her deal vs. remain at that time.

Neither of them do it because they are bound by stupid self-imposed red lines and about 'respecting the will of the people'... in a vague, non-binary vote, so vague in fact that it's the reason for this whole mess now.

If Johnson called the referendum now, with his GE being blocked, he could frame it as trusting the people to support him, give an unambiguous vote of intent as to what they want. Win or lose, the issue is settled and he'd go down as, at the very least, a 'decisive' Prime Minister who brought the beginning of the end of all this.

But he won't, because he - probably rightly - believes his better chance of success is a GE because of the unpopularity of no deal. He sees it as the chance to let him continue to be PM, despite the fact in all likelihood we'd still have a similar parliamentary split between leave and remain after a GE, so it'd resolve absolutely nothing.

So, as per usual, Johnson isn't acting in the public interest. It's all about him.


Indeed.

He will not go for a fresh Referendum.

To save him getting into a ditch and topping himself there is only one rabbit left in the hat when he goes to Brussels.

May’s first agreed deal....the NI only Backstop.

The one the DUP scuppered.

That particular rabbit is now off his back as they are no longer in a position to prop him up.

IMO it is the only card left to him and to be honest, I don’t even know if the Opposition would keep him metaphorically alive by voting for it.
 

It'll be interesting to hear anymore polling tonight (if there are any). That's a boost to Johnson after that week, but then he's not had to crash through the end of October yet having not fulfilled his promise to leave by then.

It's clear the public want a clear message on Brexit either way. I dont think Labour offering another referendum is going to impress its own supporters who want to leave and so they'll have to hammer away at non-Brexit issues.

The other thing could be that the Johnson believes he can do without Farage, and so resists a pact. Farage, though, will start parking his tanks on Tory lawns at the first sign of weakness and the Tory vote will be pruned considerably.

When you've got Thornberry talking nonsense on QT and then the MP from Leeds doing his best Ben Swaine impression it just proves how muddied Labour's thinking is.

I don't actually blame Corbyn, it's simply a party full of remainers (which in itself is fine, they're entitled to want to stay) that have no actual policy on how to go about it.

At least with the Lib Dems there position is clear that they'd have another vote, like you say, people want clarity and want this to end. Which is why - maybe even though they have for once done the right thing - Labour simply extending this process by passing the No Deal bill, and now crying to the press that Johnson may break the law (which imo is simply a clever leak from Cummins to get even more hysteria and Labour are playing right into it) can easily be spun as the mess just going on and on.
 
From today's Sunday Times

Boris Johnson ‘to break law for Brexit’ as he snatches 14‑point lead over Corbyn
Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler
September 8 2019, 12:01am, The Sunday Times
Johnson’s war with parliament could cause legal chaos that would be difficult to unpick before October 31

Johnson’s war with parliament could cause legal chaos that would be difficult to unpick before October 31
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Boris Johnson plans to “sabotage” efforts by MPs to block Brexit, and force an explosive showdown at the Supreme Court that could see him risk a jail sentence to deliver on his pledge to leave the EU by October 31.
In a dramatic escalation of the prime minister’s war with parliament, Johnson will ignore legislation passed last week demanding that he seek an extension from Brussels to Brexit negotiations past the Halloween deadline — forcing MPs to take him to court.
Johnson will go to the EU summit on October 17 and seek a deal with Brussels — but if one is not agreed he will refuse to demand the extension to article 50 which the rebel legislation demands.
methode%2Fsundaytimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F6b85daea-d1a0-11e9-b36a-8cbd36fa980c.jpg

A senior No 10 source told The Sunday Times: “If there isn’t a deal by the 18th we will sabotage the extension.” Another source said Johnson’s team was prepared to “take a chainsaw to anything” standing in its way.
No 10 believes that its approach will guarantee an emergency judicial review by the Supreme Court in the week of October 21, with judges deciding the fate of Brexit and the government.

Johnson’s approach suggests Britain is on course for the worst constitutional smash-up since parliamentary government was properly established in 1688.
After a week of turmoil, The Sunday Times can reveal that Whitehall mandarins have also begun work on a plan B, preparing for the prime minister to announce his resignation. Civil servants are drawing up a blueprint for how the announcement would be made and how Jeremy Corbyn — or a politician enjoying cross-party support — would then be invited to form a government. “It’s a tactical manoeuvre and shows he is prepared to lose the battle to win the war,” a source said.
Johnson today receives a boost from a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times which puts the Tories on 35%, 14 points ahead of Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 19% and the Brexit party on 12%.
Crucially, the survey found support for his strategy of pitching the people against parliament; 35% of voters say they want “important issues” to be decided by the public in referendums, compared to 33% who are content for decisions to be made by MPs.
In an interview with this newspaper, Nigel Farage announces that the Brexit Party will not stand candidates against committed Brexiteers and offers a full-blown “non-aggression pact” with the Tories which he says could give them a collective majority of 100.
Some Tories believe details of Johnson’s scorched earth policy might encourage MPs to vote for an election tomorrow when the matter is debated again in parliament. If that happens, Johnson and his top aide, Dominic Cummings, will happily fight an election on a “people v parliament” platform.
Under Cummings’s plan to force a Supreme Court battle, No 10 expects Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, to demand that judges rule that the cabinet secretary, Sir Mark Sedwill, writes to the EU to ask for the extension if Johnson refuses to do so.
Cummings has told colleagues that unless remainers can seize control of parliament again and pass a law revoking article 50 between October 21 and 31, they will have to ask the Supreme Court for a court order to try to force Johnson’s hand. No 10 believes it will be hard for the Supreme Court to act fast enough in the 10-day window.
If MPs do revoke article 50, sources say Johnson would also refuse to co-operate in the revocation process, causing further legal chaos which would be difficult to unpick before October 31.
Cummings’s calculation is that if Corbyn co-operates with MPs to revoke article 50, the Tories would destroy the Labour Party in the election. “We will drive them into the sea,” he told staff last week.
But last night Johnson was warned he faces jail. Lord MacDonald, the former director of public prosecutions, said he could be prosecuted for contempt of court. “If you are found guilty of defying a court order then you are jailed,” he said.
Tory MP Kevin Hollinrake warned that if Johnson defied the law, “a very significant number” of MPs would resign the whip, “including me”.
But Cummings has told officials in No 10: “The more hysterical remainers become with a campaign to arrest the PM unless he surrenders, the stronger our position with the country will get. Most MPs do not understand how much the country hates parliament and wants someone to sort out this mess.”
If MPs pass a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government for defying the law, aides say he will refuse to resign and will stay in power until after October 31 — even if the Commons speaker, John Bercow, organises a vote in parliament which shows an alternative interim prime minister such as Ken Clarke or Starmer could command a majority in the House.
Johnson will also refuse to appoint an EU commissioner in an effort to get the other member states to kick the UK out, since each country has to send someone to Brussels.
A Whitehall source said: “They think this parliament has no moral force; they will take a chainsaw to anything in order to leave and they think they will win the election then sort out the mess afterwards.”
 
At least with the Lib Dems there position is clear that they'd have another vote, like you say, people want clarity and want this to end. Which is why - maybe even though they have for once done the right thing - Labour simply extending this process by passing the No Deal bill, and now crying to the press that Johnson may break the law (which imo is simply a clever leak from Cummins to get even more hysteria and Labour are playing right into it) can easily be spun as the mess just going on and on.


lol


I think if there is one thing this car crash of a Tory week has shown us, Toff, it is that reports of how “clever” Mr, Dominic Cummings is are grossly exaggerated.
 
lol


I think if there is one thing this car crash of a Tory week has shown us, Toff, it is that reports of how “clever” Mr, Dominic Cummings is are grossly exaggerated.

Honestly, I'm not sure Khal.

He's playing a game. At the moment I'd say the ball's entirely in his court because Labour have made their moves and now what are him and Johnson doing? Well, nothing in relation to Brexit. Johnson is on a campaign trail.

Meanwhile, Labour are out eating themselves alive because their MPs are coming across as clueless whenever they're asked to give a definitive answer (because they can't).

If the situation wasn't so grave, it'd be pretty fascinating.
 
Honestly, I'm not sure Khal.

He's playing a game. At the moment I'd say the ball's entirely in his court because Labour have made their moves and now what are him and Johnson doing? Well, nothing in relation to Brexit. Johnson is on a campaign trail.

Meanwhile, Labour are out eating themselves alive because their MPs are coming across as clueless whenever they're asked to give a definitive answer (because they can't).

If the situation wasn't so grave, it'd be pretty fascinating.


I think it is fascinating anyway, Toff.

I am totally obsessed with the Brexit drama lol

I don’t want it to stop :)
 
I think for certain nobody can predict with any degree of accuracy economic forecasts at this point, we can't say we'll be poorer if we remain or leave right now.

I can give you the most important benefit, freedom. Day to day being inside the EU is like being inside a mental prison where there are no visible bars, but we're being held back, when we leave the EU the sky will be more blue, the trees more green my life will be so much happier.

We should be proud of this country, throughout history we've seen the men and women, who have been loyal and sacrificed everything for this land so we might be free.


Having Brexit is the most important thing in my life, I honestly don't care if we're poorer or richer, we need to be free. Even if it resulted in me becoming sick and there being no medicine, even if it resulted in me living in the street.

It is a sacrifice we have to make, like the men in the Somme.

Think about our proud history and believe in this country.


I was having a catch up of the 120 odd pages I'd missed since my last visit to this thread and was fortunate enough to land on the page containing this magnificent piece of prose.

This is Britain at it's finest.

Keats, Byron or even the great bard himself, Ronnie Barker if they were alive today, could not have penned a more poignant piece.

To whomever gave us this wonderful gift - you are a true literary genius and it's a real shame your work will be lost among 3 thousand odd pages of ranting, arguing and fighting on a provincial football club's supporters forum.

I will not forget you.

Strike that. We should not forget him.
 
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