These polls are weaponised. IMO the YouGov polls are completely worthless. They have a methodology which places a handicap on counting Labour Party respondents...something I believe they adopted when they massively over-estimated Labour's vote under Miliband.
I think it's fair to say that, counterintuitively, the "bad" week for Johnson played well for him. There's an anti-hero, outlaw thing he's selling to an electorate sick to the back teeth of delay on Brexit (which is why the LP position needs sharpening up).
IMO, though, once the election campaign broadens out and discusses other issues, Johnson and his team will be seen to be no friends of the bulk of this country and they'll be reeled in. Five weeks campaigning will expose these charlatans.
I’ve thought for a while now that the key to beating them is to ensure there is no pact between to tories and the Brexit party, therefore splitting the Brexit vote and exposing a small window of victory. Basically exactly what happened in the recent by-election. I thought the most likely reason for this to happen was to actually have an election pre October 31st, so Johnson was still campaigning on getting a deal. Farage’s lot would then be a full no deal option for the head bangers.
Looks like this won’t be happening now, so I would imagine that after October 17th and Johnson doesn’t get a deal through, the tories will pivot to a full no deal option. I would guess this is why the likes of Javid is on Marr this morning still talking up their deal (this way when they don’t get a deal they like, they can blame the EU intransigence ect)
This then leads to an election in November in which the tories are in some way working with Farage v everyone else. What it could then essentially come down to is what do the one nation, moderate tories in the shires find more unpalatable Corbyn or a no deal Brexit with Farage playing a key role.
I have no idea on this. Logic says they will think no-deal is way, way worse as Corbyn can simply be voted out in four years but people may not be so logical. They hate Farage, they will hate what Brexit has done to their party but will be terrified of Corbyn.
This is why I think it may actually be helpful for Swinson to continue with her enmity toward Corbyn. If the Lib Dem’s can try and make it out that a vote for them is a vote to remain, but not for Corbyn (even though it effectively would be) then they could clear up in the south west and south east.
Combine that with tories losing every seat in Scotland and labour cleaning up in metropolitan areas, it may just be enough.
I guess my key point is that although the polls show that a combined vote of the tories and Brexit party wins, they are not showing what happens to that Tory vote once they officially join forces.
www.theguardian.com
