Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Bruce Wayne]

I bet the Tories love people like you. You're so easy to manipulate. You'll swallow anything that's fed to you by that LBC radio station you love and the right wing media.

And as the situation with George Soros proves, this ability to spoon feed the ignorant complete twaddle is incredibly dangerous.

Why is billionaire George Soros a bogeyman for the hard right?

He's a Jewish billionaire philanthropist who has given away $32bn. Why does the hard right fear him?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Emlynsqueakyvoice]

Thanks for giving me a good laugh today (I needed one). Accusing Brexiteers of being outright liars when one of the leading lights of the Remoaners campaign is that beacon of truth TONY BLAIR.

Methuselah! You okay mate? Did you ever reply to my question to you about the raft of bad things about May's deal? I can't seem to locate an answer. Thanks

 

[tsubaki]

And as the situation with George Soros proves, this ability to spoon feed the ignorant complete twaddle is incredibly dangerous.

Why is billionaire George Soros a bogeyman for the hard right?

He's a Jewish billionaire philanthropist who has given away $32bn. Why does the hard right fear him?

www.bbc.co.uk

Indeed, and yet somehow that isn't anti-semitic at all.

 

[Xizor]

Indeed, and yet somehow that isn't anti-semitic at all.

There's a weird dualism that sees the hard/far right, moreso in the US than here, love the support that the Trump administration shows for Israel (maybe it's just because it's Trump doing it, and maybe because it's an 'ally against Islam'), but on a personal level they are happy to engage in antisemitic behaviour.

Edit: I do understand that 'the state of Israel' and 'the Jewish people' aren't the same thing.

 

[tsubaki]

There's a weird dualism that sees the hard/far right, moreso in the US than here, love the support that the Trump administration shows for Israel (maybe it's just because it's Trump doing it, and maybe because it's an 'ally against Islam'), but on a personal level they are happy to engage in antisemitic behaviour.

Absolutely. In fact, there was a post - which three people "liked" - under one of Corbyn's twitter posts earlier from someone with the wonderfully not at all anti-semitic account name "Nonjob_ZyklonB" (which I haven't linked directly to for obvious reasons).

 

[Khalekan]

There's a weird dualism that sees the hard/far right, moreso in the US than here, love the support that the Trump administration shows for Israel (maybe it's just because it's Trump doing it, and maybe because it's an 'ally against Islam'), but on a personal level they are happy to engage in antisemitic behaviour.

Edit: I do understand that 'the state of Israel' and 'the Jewish people' aren't the same thing.

A distinction which is wilfully ignored by the pro Israeli lobby.

For whom every criticism of Netanyahu and his ilk for their abhorent persecution of the Palestinians is construed as being anti Jewish and debate is closed down.

 

[davek]

I’ve thought for a while now that the key to beating them is to ensure there is no pact between to tories and the Brexit party, therefore splitting the Brexit vote and exposing a small window of victory. Basically exactly what happened in the recent by-election. I thought the most likely reason for this to happen was to actually have an election pre October 31st, so Johnson was still campaigning on getting a deal. Farage’s lot would then be a full no deal option for the head bangers.

Looks like this won’t be happening now, so I would imagine that after October 17th and Johnson doesn’t get a deal through, the tories will pivot to a full no deal option. I would guess this is why the likes of Javid is on Marr this morning still talking up their deal (this way when they don’t get a deal they like, they can blame the EU intransigence ect)

This then leads to an election in November in which the tories are in some way working with Farage v everyone else. What it could then essentially come down to is what do the one nation, moderate tories in the shires find more unpalatable Corbyn or a no deal Brexit with Farage playing a key role.

I have no idea on this. Logic says they will think no-deal is way, way worse as Corbyn can simply be voted out in four years but people may not be so logical. They hate Farage, they will hate what Brexit has done to their party but will be terrified of Corbyn.

This is why I think it may actually be helpful for Swinson to continue with her enmity toward Corbyn. If the Lib Dem’s can try and make it out that a vote for them is a vote to remain, but not for Corbyn (even though it effectively would be) then they could clear up in the south west and south east.

Combine that with tories losing every seat in Scotland and labour cleaning up in metropolitan areas, it may just be enough.

I guess my key point is that although the polls show that a combined vote of the tories and Brexit party wins, they are not showing what happens to that Tory vote once they officially join forces.

It'd have been far better for Labour (but not the country as a whole) if a no deal scenario were in motion and we were out of the EU. The carnage would have had a major impact on voting intentions.

Obviously, Johnson is going to take up a no deal position and trade on it without the ill effects of the reality of it in motion.

There's a lot of ifs and buts about the coming election though. The overall % of the vote share in polls might mean not that much. For instance: many of Labour's seats after 2017 had whopping majorities. It would take a major collapse to see those seats change hands, no matter the heat generated by Brexit.

All told, I think the numbers are there for a coalition of Remainer parties to gain a majority; I dont see that for even a combined no deal Brexit vote of Tories plus Farage's party.

Overall: I'm convinced that though Brexit will be the key issue in the election other issues will have a huge impact too.

It's still likely that the result will show the Tories to be the largest single party but way off a majority to rule. The majority will lie with the LP/LD/Plaid/SNP/Green(s).

 

[davek]

I think Thornberry’s point the other night was excellent.....it was drowned out by the guffaws of that loudmouth Tory and the odious barrow boy, Tice.

The fact is there is no better deal available than the one we already enjoy.......i.e. full EU membership.

None whatsoever.

That cannot be improved upon.

So by definition, if Labour is tasked with brokering a deal it will be inferior to our current one.

I would imagine that would be very much the majority opinion among both the PLP and party members.

But as we need to try and put this madness to bed there will be a need to put it to the people in Referendum.

The choice would then be between a clearly defined Labour version of the Brexit deal or Remain.

With a Labour government campaigning against the deal it brokered.

That is what Thirnberry was saying and it made perfect sense to me

It wont make sense to millions of fulminating voters who cant be arsed thinking it through.

 

[davek]

how can Labour in any conscience allow hard leave on the ballot paper when they have done everything they can to prevent it on grounds of national interest.

They wont do that. They'd take that off the table.

 

[Xizor]

Just caught Javid on this morning's Marr... how has it come to the Chancellor being asked if the government will obey the law and not being able to give a cohesive answer?

"Yes of course this government will obey all laws"
"No, the PM won't ask for an extension and we will leave on the 31st"
"No, the PM won't be resigning"

As Marr rightly pointed out, all 3 cannot be true, but when pressed all he could say was 'wait and see what we do'. Thanks Saj, for treating the British public's confidence that they're not living in a tinpot banana republic as a fun guessing game.

 

[Brisan123]

I was just interpreting what had been said in the previous post. Not offering an opinion.

On your question though, I don’t think another referendum can be anything other than clear options with the outcome being the guaranteed one with no movement for wriggle room. Otherwise we will potentially find ourselves in the same situation again.

For us to have another referendum (which I wouldn’t in theory be against) it would have to be a 3 choice question:

- No Deal
- Agreed upon deal by Parliament and the EU
- Remain

Then no one can argue people didn’t know what they were voting for, remainers can’t argue there have been lies, leavers can’t say the will of the people hasn’t been enacted etc. etc.

For what it’s worth this will never happen in my opinion as I don’t see option 2 as ever happening

They have had 3 years and failed to get an agreed deal
Surely the only options are
Leave no deal
Remain

 

[Brisan123]

I agree. Which is why I ruled option 2 out. But who knows whether in the next couple of months, if we get a situation where there is a new deal on the table, then maybe there could be a 3rd option.

I’m just not convinced a referendum on No Deal vs Remain would be good for the harmony of the country going forward. As I think Remain would win and then the whole debate will start again about whether you should respect a referendum. Or do we have another one.

We’re in this mess because the options weren’t clear which has given Parliament chances to block things. Don’t get me wrong I’m happy it’s happened.

But I think for a referendum to be the “solution” to this mess, it has to have 3 clear options. Whichever wins, is guaranteed to be carried through with.

It won’t happen like that and people would still be annoyed whatever but that’s the only way I see a 2nd referendum not causing carnage one way or another if it’s a purely no deal vs remain offer.

But there is no leave with an agreed deal option
The deal was agreed with May and the EU
The HOC rejected it
People will have to realise until Britain comes up with an alternative to the backstop ( an actual workable alternative not a mysterious future technological alternative) then
The deal is the deal

 

[tsubaki]

Just caught Javid on this morning's Marr... how has it come to the Chancellor being asked if the government will obey the law and not being able to give a cohesive answer?

"Yes of course this government will obey all laws"
"No, the PM won't ask for an extension and we will leave on the 31st"
"No, the PM won't be resigning"

As Marr rightly pointed out, all 3 cannot be true, but when pressed all he could say was 'wait and see what we do'. Thanks Saj, for treating the British public's confidence that they're not living in a tinpot banana republic as a fun guessing game.

The problem with that Bill is there is no offence and no punishment for breaching it; the people behind it are relying on a court saying the law (when it recieves assent) is valid and that a court order can be imposed to ensure it, and then enforced. Remember there will be a less than two week period for it to be imposed, on four days of those days the Court is unlikely to be sitting.

They are probably planning to work their way through the appeals process and hope that doesn't end by October 31st. It will probably work as well, given that the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid etc really do not want to put Corbyn in as PM (even though that is the only guaranteed way to ensure the law is complied with).

 

[Methuselah]

Methuselah! You okay mate? Did you ever reply to my question to you about the raft of bad things about May's deal? I can't seem to locate an answer. Thanks

You would be better asking the large majority of MP's who voted to reject May's deal - three times.

 

[Brisan123]

I’m pretty open minded when it comes to Farage, a man of action like him, can only be a good thing.

I’m actually seeing him in a few weeks on the Brexit party tour. What in your opinion do you think needs to be guarded against?

Farage has setup the Brexit party to defend free speech and democracy in Britain.

In all honesty if there are more people of the same opinion as you out there there Britain and a good proportion of its people needs to be seriously worried about their future safety