Current Affairs EU In or Out

[tim cahill]

Finland have stated no extenstion for the UK....... Tonight...
No wonder what HOC - the shambles over the last 3 Years.....

But I thought the EU were scared of no deal? I thought Boris said they would give us a great deal if they believed his threat of no deal?

 

[random]

It’s an absolute farce all around. I remember way back when the result of the referendum was announced... the Tories were full of themselves and telling us how they were going to the Eu with a list of our demands and if that bloody Eu knows what’s good for them they will listen and give us what we want.

There began the problems... when they went in with their little englander demands right at the beginning... it was as laughable then as it is now and it just set the time for the 3 years since.

I have read quite a few books on Brexit, and the overriding theme was that when Theresa May went into the negotiations, she expected the EU would give her everything that was asked, it was a bit of a shock when they said no and by the way here is what we want.

Teresa May spent so much time in her political life treading between the cracks and being told what a great politician she was, that when she met the pros, reality set in and that point she probably realised the game was up and tried her best to fudge/blag it.

If any side comes out with any credit for preparing for and carrying out the negotiation it is the EU, no wonder leave voters like me feel that the deal was garbage, it could probably have been worse and they felt a bit sorry for us and let us off a few batterings (still think they got a bit of 'punishment' in btw).

27 countries agreed that whatever their team came back with then that was the deal, we are still squabbling over who our team should be and what we want to ask for.

Useless and amateurish from the get go.

Now we have a situation whereby has the government anticipated the moves by the opposition and have a nice October surprise waiting so that a no deal goes through by default, have the opposition realised this and have their own counter-moves ready like the levels of thinking in poker.

Or are they now stumped and not as clever as they all think they are.

My money is on the 2nd option.

 

[davek]

It doesn’t matter though Dave. Boris can just point at Corbyn and say that he stopped it happening. Boris has been given a get out of jail free card by Corbyn.......

Bear in mind I'm someone who thinks the referendum should be respected and we should leave with a deal...but I cant see, when eventually the election takes place, the numbers being there either for a deal or a crash out. The moment has gone. I just feel like the country has had enough of this and that the more motivated side now are those who wanted (and have fought tooth and nail) to remain in the EU. The current Brexiteer strength can be gleaned from the share of the vote taken by the Brexit Party at the EU elections early in the summer: about 30% of the electorate. If the election is (as we all expect) fought on Brexit there'll be no Brexit-backing party(ies) who gains a majority.

I think the last week in parliament has shown where momentum lies amongst the parties.

 

[dholliday]

This is the point I made yesterday which is why I could see the sense in having No Deal as an option to take to the table. Nobody wants it. The UK or the EU.

But obviously there's massive risks with it. I don't want it to happen, but I do see how taking that off the table at this stage (it should have been done right away) could weaken it even further.

I just don't think the EU let the UK revoke without some repercussions. Whether that's inital extra funding into the pot or whatever.

But thanks for pointing out - and I know you're more knowledgable on this than me - that the EU are very much wanting money from us and not the idylic entity that some (not on here) paint it out to be.

Aye, for the EU chiefs it's the domino-effect they're afraid of. A successful UK post-Brexit means talk of a Brexit-equivalent referendum put to the French or Germans, and there'd be a real risk of one or both those countries voting out (the newly-influential AfD party in Germany for example may support a Dexit referendum). Before it came to that, the EU would quickly require drastic EU reforms which would effectively neuter the influence EU Presidents have over EU member states.

What was very revealing were the immediate reactions of Tusk, Juncker and Schulze (the three sitting EU Presidents at the time) following the confirmation that Brexit won 52-48 back in June 2016. Diplomatic it was not lol

At least Merkel, the de facto 'EU Moral Leader' (Lagarde for one has openly said everyone should follow Merkel's lead), has consistently signalled respect and Mitarbeit to the UK.

What's really tricky now from the UK perspective in terms of planning a deal with the EU is not knowing who's behind von der Leyen's appointment. She didn't get the top job on merit, yet it's not clear which thinktank-esque organisation may be pulling the strings getting her that job, and what their intentions may be.

Boris (or Jeremy, who lest we forget is famously anti-EU) will have a lot of tricky poker to play yet.

 

[peteblue]

Bear in mind I'm someone who thinks the referendum should be respected and we should leave with a deal...but I cant see, when eventually the election takes place, the numbers being there either for a deal or a crash out. The moment has gone. I just feel like the country has had enough of this and that the more motivated side now are those who wanted (and have fought tooth and nail) to remain in the EU. The current Brexiteer strength can be gleaned from the share of the vote taken by the Brexit Party at the EU elections early in the summer: about 30% of the electorate. If the election is (as we all expect) fought on Brexit there'll be no Brexit-backing party(ies) who gains a majority.

I think the last week in parliament has shown where momentum lies amongst the parties.

You know I disagree. I think that the people have had enough of remainer MP’s and will punish them in a GE.....but we will have to wait and see.....

 

[dholliday]

The moment has gone. I just feel like the country has had enough of this and that the more motivated side now are those who wanted (and have fought tooth and nail) to remain in the EU.

I think this is broadly true. For all the frothing online, the actual people on the streets have been the Remainers and not the Brexiters. If Remain prevails, even by crook, I don't think it will lead to riots. People will complain then move one. If however Brexit prevails, especially NO DEAL, then I don't think we'll hear the end of the stressy arguing for a long time afters.

Saying that, if put to another referendum vote, I think Brexit will win again. Even NO DEAL. The armchair majority outnumber everyone else.

 

[Wizard]

Yes but could another referendum not provide parliament with the necessary direction the public want to go. Rather than simply leaving it to their interpretation?

I was just interpreting what had been said in the previous post. Not offering an opinion.

On your question though, I don’t think another referendum can be anything other than clear options with the outcome being the guaranteed one with no movement for wriggle room. Otherwise we will potentially find ourselves in the same situation again.

For us to have another referendum (which I wouldn’t in theory be against) it would have to be a 3 choice question:

- No Deal
- Agreed upon deal by Parliament and the EU
- Remain

Then no one can argue people didn’t know what they were voting for, remainers can’t argue there have been lies, leavers can’t say the will of the people hasn’t been enacted etc. etc.

For what it’s worth this will never happen in my opinion as I don’t see option 2 as ever happening

 

[Barnfred 55]

They always disagreed with the premise that Scotland wouldn’t be a successor state to the UK in EU treaties so membership of the EU would be automatic.

But surely Scotland was not a member of the EU. The UK was. If it left the UK it would have to apply to become a member under article 49, which could take years. The EU hasn't accepted a new member since Croatia in 2013 and it took them 10 years to get in.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Anything to get away from the English apparently.....and find someone with deeper pockets to pay the Scottish exchequer....

So it would appear.

 

[The binman chronicles]

I was just interpreting what had been said in the previous post. Not offering an opinion.

On your question though, I don’t think another referendum can be anything other than clear options with the outcome being the guaranteed one with no movement for wriggle room. Otherwise we will potentially find ourselves in the same situation again.

For us to have another referendum (which I wouldn’t in theory be against) it would have to be a 3 choice question:

- No Deal
- Agreed upon deal by Parliament and the EU
- Remain

Then no one can argue people didn’t know what they were voting for, remainers can’t argue there have been lies, leavers can’t say the will of the people hasn’t been enacted etc. etc.

For what it’s worth this will never happen in my opinion as I don’t see option 2 as ever happening

Imho if parliament can't get a majority vote in the house for a deal then it shouldn't be included.

That at least cleans up the choices though, BoJo's no deal with all the facts what would need to be done to carry this out - inc. a hard border between NI and the Republic against revoking article 50.

 

[James]

But surely Scotland was not a member of the EU. The UK was. If it left the UK it would have to apply to become a member under article 49, which could take years. The EU hasn't accepted a new member since Croatia in 2013 and it took them 10 years to get in.

Oh I get your point and I agree with you. The successor state argument the SNP ran always had the whiff of wishful thinking.

My comment was in response to your question as to why the EU is suddenly so important to the SNP now.

For the SNP it always has been- their whole argument on successor states was based on that need to stay in the EU.

 

[The binman chronicles]

But surely Scotland was not a member of the EU. The UK was. If it left the UK it would have to apply to become a member under article 49, which could take years. The EU hasn't accepted a new member since Croatia in 2013 and it took them 10 years to get in.

If they can square the Catalan issue then I would think the EU would love to stick it to the rest of the UK by welcoming Scotland. As Scotland is part of the EU through the UK, everything regulatory wise should be in place to allow a quick ascension. If it goes a few years with the UK out of the EU then it becomes more difficult.

 

[James]

If they can square the Catalan issue then I would think the EU would love to stick it to the rest of the UK by welcoming Scotland. As Scotland is part of the EU through the UK, everything regulatory wise should be in place to allow a quick ascension. If it goes a few years with the UK out of the EU then it becomes more difficult.

Agree with this if we get a deal.

If we don’t surely it’s a Scottish backstop and more years of pain?

Can’t wait for that...

 

[Barnfred 55]

If they can square the Catalan issue then I would think the EU would love to stick it to the rest of the UK by welcoming Scotland. As Scotland is part of the EU through the UK, everything regulatory wise should be in place to allow a quick ascension. If it goes a few years with the UK out of the EU then it becomes more difficult.

Have they squared the Catalan issue?

Anyway you misunderstand. I'm not talking about Scotland applying for EU membership now. I was talking about back in 2014 had their referendum been to leave the UK.

 

[Wizard]

Imho if parliament can't get a majority vote in the house for a deal then it shouldn't be included.

That at least cleans up the choices though, BoJo's no deal with all the facts what would need to be done to carry this out - inc. a hard border between NI and the Republic against revoking article 50.

I agree. Which is why I ruled option 2 out. But who knows whether in the next couple of months, if we get a situation where there is a new deal on the table, then maybe there could be a 3rd option.

I’m just not convinced a referendum on No Deal vs Remain would be good for the harmony of the country going forward. As I think Remain would win and then the whole debate will start again about whether you should respect a referendum. Or do we have another one.

We’re in this mess because the options weren’t clear which has given Parliament chances to block things. Don’t get me wrong I’m happy it’s happened.

But I think for a referendum to be the “solution” to this mess, it has to have 3 clear options. Whichever wins, is guaranteed to be carried through with.

It won’t happen like that and people would still be annoyed whatever but that’s the only way I see a 2nd referendum not causing carnage one way or another if it’s a purely no deal vs remain offer.