Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Charlie Sweet]

I honestly think farage will be prime minister in the next few years. Kinda scary how far we’ve came

You seem pretty much the definition of a troll.

 

[Hawhaw]

I can see a scenario where it does. BP polling is probably down because the Leavers are still in the 'Boris will do it' frame of mind. When he finds himself just as much of a victim of parliamentary procedure as May was it could swing again. I've said before that it's not impossible that a failed Brexit project is there to be wielded as a weapon by an insurgent right-wing movement howling betrayal by the existing political class. It's absolutely Farage's bread and butter.

I actually agree with you for once, all Farage has to do is step back and shout from the sidelines betrayal,
and watch a weak opposition and Tory’s destroy eachother.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

I believe Johnson has royally ballsed this up.

I wouldn't bet against a meltdown or an off camera moment caught by someone that blows the whole thing up.

 

[Hawhaw]

You seem pretty much the definition of a troll.

Do you not believe that it’s not a possibility? Really mate, what’s a troll?

Steve Baker and his ERG comrades will push for an election pact, depending on how strong the pact is, we could see Farage given a very safe Tory leave seat and Waltz in as deputy.

 

[Jebus_lives]

How Europe views the Brexit endgame

The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

amp.ft.com

Good piece in the FT. EU running out of patience and showing no signs of blinking.

*I'll post the full thing of it's blocked

 

[Charlie Sweet]

Do you not believe that it’s not a possibility? Really mate, what’s a troll?

Steve Baker and his ERG comrades will push for an election pact, depending on how strong the pact is, we could see Farage given a very safe Tory leave seat and Waltz in as deputy.

The headcase right is about 10-15%. A general election will, I hope, expose a lot of the Leave lies and falsehoods.

 

[davek]

I think this is broadly true. For all the frothing online, the actual people on the streets have been the Remainers and not the Brexiters. If Remain prevails, even by crook, I don't think it will lead to riots. People will complain then move one. If however Brexit prevails, especially NO DEAL, then I don't think we'll hear the end of the stressy arguing for a long time afters.

Saying that, if put to another referendum vote, I think Brexit will win again. Even NO DEAL. The armchair majority outnumber everyone else.

I dont think so. As said, the EU elections last May were an indicator as to the strength of the ardent Brexiteers: the Tories were wiped out and the Brexit party mustered around 30% of the vote.

That's why I dont know believe that even an unlikely pact between Brexit and Tory parties can win the day. Combined they'd poll no greater than low 40% of the total electorate. The Remain / soft Brexit bloc command a majority in the country now and they'll have the numbers post election to coalesce.

Farage, Cummings, Gove, Johnson - it feels like their time has come and gone.

 

[Hawhaw]

The headcase right is about 10-15%. A general election will, I hope, expose a lot of the Leave lies and falsehoods.

You believe that, but in reality we’re heading towards a hard Brexit and a Farage Johnson government.

 

[Jebus_lives]

How Europe views the Brexit endgame

The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

amp.ft.com

Good piece in the FT. EU running out of patience and showing no signs of blinking.

*I'll post the full thing of it's blocked

Looks like it will be blocked so here you go:


How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

September 5, 2019 4:00 am by Simon Kuper

How do European decision makers see Brexit now? I’ve asked politicians, diplomats and business groups across the EU and found them remarkably united around a tough stance towards Britain.
They won’t give in to Boris Johnson’s demands to renegotiate a deal, but nor do they want Britain’s anti-no-deal forces to delay Brexit.
Very few Europeans are still open to the UK’s staying in the EU, and most dread a potential second British referendum. Here are my conclusions:
European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast. Anne Mulder, the Dutch parliament’s rapporteur on Brexit, speaks for many: “We thought the Brits were rational pragmatists. Well, they aren’t.”
For years, Angela Merkel and many in Brussels hoped Britain would eventually ditch Brexit. In March, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, argued for giving the UK a long extension, saying Europe shouldn’t betray “the increasing majority of [British] people who want to remain”. That view has lost favour in Brussels.
Europeans distrust Johnson, but they also despair of Labour’s leader Jeremy Corbyn, who prioritises getting into Downing Street over shaping sensible Brexit policy, and they are close to giving up on Britain’s squabbling Remainers. Even if Remain won a second referendum, Brexiters would become a Trojan horse inside the EU.
But Europeans will keep sounding friendly and open to negotiations. They don’t want to humiliate “proud” Britain, nor be blamed for the pain that Brexit inflicts. They hope to maintain close security ties after Brexit (but they worry that a poorer UK with a plummeting pound will cut military spending even further).
On the ground in Europe, Brexit is already happening. European governments are replacing the UK with new alliances, notably the Hanseatic League of northern countries.
Many businesses are acting similarly: North Rhine-Westphalia, a German region that trades intensively with Britain, has been relieved to discover that some European companies have anticipated Brexit by shifting from British suppliers to German ones. Britain is becoming yesterday’s problem.
But what if Johnson, the bookmakers’ favourite in an election, wins the British power struggle?
Europeans would rather have a no-deal Brexit than accept Johnson’s demands that they drop the planned Irish “backstop”. Both the EU and the British government keep making the same mistake about each other, notes Douglas Webber of Insead business school, author of European Disintegration? (2016): each side thinks the other will cave to avoid an economically damaging no-deal Brexit.
In fact, says Webber, both sides regard short-term economics as secondary. Johnson’s government prioritises achieving Brexit. Europeans prioritise preserving the rules of the single market and standing by Ireland.
The EU’s support for Ireland — the country insisting on the backstop, because it fears renewed conflict on its border — is non-negotiable because of the EU’s core mission. The EU sees itself as a peace project, and as a club of mostly small states that seek strength in numbers — two points that even most British Remainers miss.
Two-thirds of the EU27 have 10 million inhabitants or fewer. Alone, these states could be bullied: Denmark by Donald Trump over Greenland, the Baltics by Russia, everyone by China. The EU must now be seen to protect little Ireland. “It’s not about Ireland, in a way,” says Noelle O’Connell, executive director of the European Movement Ireland, an independent not-for-profit organisation.
European big business isn’t lobbying against no deal. EU companies have had three years to prepare. And the last thing they want is Johnson turning Britain into a low-regulation trade zone that undercuts them. If British companies aren’t following European rules, their European rivals want them out of the single market.
Europeans foresee only moderate economic damage from no deal. No deal would cost EU27 citizens €40bn in income a year, estimates the Bertelsmann Stiftung, an independent foundation. On average, that’s a manageable €90 per person. Only Ireland expects short-term agony, and it’s the firmest opponent of renegotiation.
Many southern and eastern European economies would barely notice no deal. These countries are expending little more thought on Brexit than British policymakers are expending on Italy’s political crisis.
Most European leaders (especially French president Emmanuel Macron) want Britain to suffer from Brexit, not because they are anti-British but because they are pro-themselves. If in a year Johnson could say, “We’ve made a success of Brexit,” it would encourage Leavers across Europe.
No European government — not even Hungary — wants that. Whatever their rhetoric, they are all now objectively pro-EU in that they want to remain.
Brussels expects Britain to reopen talks within a week of no deal. In the first days, the EU would allow the Irish border to remain porous, but continental ports would already be checking goods, causing delays and shortages in Britain. Brussels wouldn’t grant any longer-term fixes until London agreed to honour the backstop, pay its exit bill of £39bn and guarantee rights of European citizens in Britain.
But the risk is that by then, Johnson will have won an election with a hard-Brexit party. If he blames Europe, refuses to pay up and fantasises about shifting Britain into the US’s low-regulation zone through a trade deal with Trump, no deal could metastatize.

 

[BlueToff]

Looks like it will be blocked so here you go:


How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

September 5, 2019 4:00 am by Simon Kuper

How do European decision makers see Brexit now? I’ve asked politicians, diplomats and business groups across the EU and found them remarkably united around a tough stance towards Britain.
They won’t give in to Boris Johnson’s demands to renegotiate a deal, but nor do they want Britain’s anti-no-deal forces to delay Brexit.
Very few Europeans are still open to the UK’s staying in the EU, and most dread a potential second British referendum. Here are my conclusions:
European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast. Anne Mulder, the Dutch parliament’s rapporteur on Brexit, speaks for many: “We thought the Brits were rational pragmatists. Well, they aren’t.”
For years, Angela Merkel and many in Brussels hoped Britain would eventually ditch Brexit. In March, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, argued for giving the UK a long extension, saying Europe shouldn’t betray “the increasing majority of [British] people who want to remain”. That view has lost favour in Brussels.
Europeans distrust Johnson, but they also despair of Labour’s leader Jeremy Corbyn, who prioritises getting into Downing Street over shaping sensible Brexit policy, and they are close to giving up on Britain’s squabbling Remainers. Even if Remain won a second referendum, Brexiters would become a Trojan horse inside the EU.
But Europeans will keep sounding friendly and open to negotiations. They don’t want to humiliate “proud” Britain, nor be blamed for the pain that Brexit inflicts. They hope to maintain close security ties after Brexit (but they worry that a poorer UK with a plummeting pound will cut military spending even further).
On the ground in Europe, Brexit is already happening. European governments are replacing the UK with new alliances, notably the Hanseatic League of northern countries.
Many businesses are acting similarly: North Rhine-Westphalia, a German region that trades intensively with Britain, has been relieved to discover that some European companies have anticipated Brexit by shifting from British suppliers to German ones. Britain is becoming yesterday’s problem.
But what if Johnson, the bookmakers’ favourite in an election, wins the British power struggle?
Europeans would rather have a no-deal Brexit than accept Johnson’s demands that they drop the planned Irish “backstop”. Both the EU and the British government keep making the same mistake about each other, notes Douglas Webber of Insead business school, author of European Disintegration? (2016): each side thinks the other will cave to avoid an economically damaging no-deal Brexit.
In fact, says Webber, both sides regard short-term economics as secondary. Johnson’s government prioritises achieving Brexit. Europeans prioritise preserving the rules of the single market and standing by Ireland.
The EU’s support for Ireland — the country insisting on the backstop, because it fears renewed conflict on its border — is non-negotiable because of the EU’s core mission. The EU sees itself as a peace project, and as a club of mostly small states that seek strength in numbers — two points that even most British Remainers miss.
Two-thirds of the EU27 have 10 million inhabitants or fewer. Alone, these states could be bullied: Denmark by Donald Trump over Greenland, the Baltics by Russia, everyone by China. The EU must now be seen to protect little Ireland. “It’s not about Ireland, in a way,” says Noelle O’Connell, executive director of the European Movement Ireland, an independent not-for-profit organisation.
European big business isn’t lobbying against no deal. EU companies have had three years to prepare. And the last thing they want is Johnson turning Britain into a low-regulation trade zone that undercuts them. If British companies aren’t following European rules, their European rivals want them out of the single market.
Europeans foresee only moderate economic damage from no deal. No deal would cost EU27 citizens €40bn in income a year, estimates the Bertelsmann Stiftung, an independent foundation. On average, that’s a manageable €90 per person. Only Ireland expects short-term agony, and it’s the firmest opponent of renegotiation.
Many southern and eastern European economies would barely notice no deal. These countries are expending little more thought on Brexit than British policymakers are expending on Italy’s political crisis.
Most European leaders (especially French president Emmanuel Macron) want Britain to suffer from Brexit, not because they are anti-British but because they are pro-themselves. If in a year Johnson could say, “We’ve made a success of Brexit,” it would encourage Leavers across Europe.
No European government — not even Hungary — wants that. Whatever their rhetoric, they are all now objectively pro-EU in that they want to remain.
Brussels expects Britain to reopen talks within a week of no deal. In the first days, the EU would allow the Irish border to remain porous, but continental ports would already be checking goods, causing delays and shortages in Britain. Brussels wouldn’t grant any longer-term fixes until London agreed to honour the backstop, pay its exit bill of £39bn and guarantee rights of European citizens in Britain.
But the risk is that by then, Johnson will have won an election with a hard-Brexit party. If he blames Europe, refuses to pay up and fantasises about shifting Britain into the US’s low-regulation zone through a trade deal with Trump, no deal could metastatize.

All that says to me is that our in-fighting and squabling government (all the parties) are entirely to blame.

There's been three years to come up with a plan. Three years. And they've gone backwards. They're disgraceful.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

You believe that, but in reality we’re heading towards a hard Brexit and a Farage Johnson government.

I dont see that. The Brexit Party causes more headaches for the Tories than Labour.

Longer term I have faith in our system to expose any hard right government. Brexit is bad and a No Deal is a disaster. There are no promised uplands. The whole Leave proposition is founded on a long gone British Empire mentality (at best) and total bluster.

Farage, his cronies and the loons of the Brexit Party would be cannon fodder for the investigative press in the UK. And when the world does start to fall in they'll be found quaking.

If you're not troll then you're obviously embittered about something and clearly hate the concept of the UK/EU establishment. Just admit it!

 

[Charlie Sweet]

All that says to me is that our in-fighting and squabling government (all the parties) are entirely to blame.

There's been three years to come up with a plan. Three years. And they've gone backwards. They're disgraceful.

There is no "plan" that works though. With Brexit you cant polish a turd.

 

[Billy Dean]

He’s failed 7 times, maybe 8 to be an mp, but I think people are underestimating him.

With the Brexit party he’s made a rebrand where labour voters can get behind that vehicle, in areas people can’t vote Tory.

The anti immigration sentiment has been put on the back burner, and he’s now campaigning against the London Labour Party who have abandoned millions in the north.

He’s promised massive funding plans for the north of England and South Wales, judging how people reacted to the promise from Corybn on tuition fees.

Or 350 million a week, for the NHS that stuff gets votes.

Polls aren’t great in the sense of it doesn’t reflect substance usually, just anger and impulsive thoughts.

We will see how things shape up around Oct deadline, but if we’ve not left by 31st, he’ll rocket in all them polls.

I don't think so. In a general election he'd be exposed as a one issue campaigner.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Looks like it will be blocked so here you go:


How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

September 5, 2019 4:00 am by Simon Kuper

How do European decision makers see Brexit now? I’ve asked politicians, diplomats and business groups across the EU and found them remarkably united around a tough stance towards Britain.
They won’t give in to Boris Johnson’s demands to renegotiate a deal, but nor do they want Britain’s anti-no-deal forces to delay Brexit.
Very few Europeans are still open to the UK’s staying in the EU, and most dread a potential second British referendum. Here are my conclusions:
European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast. Anne Mulder, the Dutch parliament’s rapporteur on Brexit, speaks for many: “We thought the Brits were rational pragmatists. Well, they aren’t.”
For years, Angela Merkel and many in Brussels hoped Britain would eventually ditch Brexit. In March, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, argued for giving the UK a long extension, saying Europe shouldn’t betray “the increasing majority of [British] people who want to remain”. That view has lost favour in Brussels.
Europeans distrust Johnson, but they also despair of Labour’s leader Jeremy Corbyn, who prioritises getting into Downing Street over shaping sensible Brexit policy, and they are close to giving up on Britain’s squabbling Remainers. Even if Remain won a second referendum, Brexiters would become a Trojan horse inside the EU.
But Europeans will keep sounding friendly and open to negotiations. They don’t want to humiliate “proud” Britain, nor be blamed for the pain that Brexit inflicts. They hope to maintain close security ties after Brexit (but they worry that a poorer UK with a plummeting pound will cut military spending even further).
On the ground in Europe, Brexit is already happening. European governments are replacing the UK with new alliances, notably the Hanseatic League of northern countries.
Many businesses are acting similarly: North Rhine-Westphalia, a German region that trades intensively with Britain, has been relieved to discover that some European companies have anticipated Brexit by shifting from British suppliers to German ones. Britain is becoming yesterday’s problem.
But what if Johnson, the bookmakers’ favourite in an election, wins the British power struggle?
Europeans would rather have a no-deal Brexit than accept Johnson’s demands that they drop the planned Irish “backstop”. Both the EU and the British government keep making the same mistake about each other, notes Douglas Webber of Insead business school, author of European Disintegration? (2016): each side thinks the other will cave to avoid an economically damaging no-deal Brexit.
In fact, says Webber, both sides regard short-term economics as secondary. Johnson’s government prioritises achieving Brexit. Europeans prioritise preserving the rules of the single market and standing by Ireland.
The EU’s support for Ireland — the country insisting on the backstop, because it fears renewed conflict on its border — is non-negotiable because of the EU’s core mission. The EU sees itself as a peace project, and as a club of mostly small states that seek strength in numbers — two points that even most British Remainers miss.
Two-thirds of the EU27 have 10 million inhabitants or fewer. Alone, these states could be bullied: Denmark by Donald Trump over Greenland, the Baltics by Russia, everyone by China. The EU must now be seen to protect little Ireland. “It’s not about Ireland, in a way,” says Noelle O’Connell, executive director of the European Movement Ireland, an independent not-for-profit organisation.
European big business isn’t lobbying against no deal. EU companies have had three years to prepare. And the last thing they want is Johnson turning Britain into a low-regulation trade zone that undercuts them. If British companies aren’t following European rules, their European rivals want them out of the single market.
Europeans foresee only moderate economic damage from no deal. No deal would cost EU27 citizens €40bn in income a year, estimates the Bertelsmann Stiftung, an independent foundation. On average, that’s a manageable €90 per person. Only Ireland expects short-term agony, and it’s the firmest opponent of renegotiation.
Many southern and eastern European economies would barely notice no deal. These countries are expending little more thought on Brexit than British policymakers are expending on Italy’s political crisis.
Most European leaders (especially French president Emmanuel Macron) want Britain to suffer from Brexit, not because they are anti-British but because they are pro-themselves. If in a year Johnson could say, “We’ve made a success of Brexit,” it would encourage Leavers across Europe.
No European government — not even Hungary — wants that. Whatever their rhetoric, they are all now objectively pro-EU in that they want to remain.
Brussels expects Britain to reopen talks within a week of no deal. In the first days, the EU would allow the Irish border to remain porous, but continental ports would already be checking goods, causing delays and shortages in Britain. Brussels wouldn’t grant any longer-term fixes until London agreed to honour the backstop, pay its exit bill of £39bn and guarantee rights of European citizens in Britain.
But the risk is that by then, Johnson will have won an election with a hard-Brexit party. If he blames Europe, refuses to pay up and fantasises about shifting Britain into the US’s low-regulation zone through a trade deal with Trump, no deal could metastatize.

The worrying thing of all that is the potential shift away from viewing this as largely a problem caused by a Tory party that has been infiltrated by extremists, towards this being a national malady that damages the reputation of all Britons. As the article says, I find it increasingly difficult to see how the UK can possibly remain in the EU, even with a 2nd referendum requesting as much. We've become poisonous on the international stage.

 

[BlueToff]

There is no "plan" that works though. With Brexit you cant polish a turd.

I'm pretty sure Corbyn would have disagreed, if not now, then two years ago when in his manifesto he promised to deliver Brexit with a deal.

I'm sure something was possible. Had all parties been united behind respecting the result of the vote.