Current Affairs EU In or Out

[roydo]

Very true. Also, who would you rather have leading your country - respected political figures like Angela Merkel and Mark Rutte, or a serial liar like Boris Johnson and his unelected friend, Dominic Cummings?

Whilst not a fan, he is there by dint of our parliamentary system.

 

[roydo]

But that is because the 27 other countries are losing free trade with just one country whereas we are losing 27 partners. It's like half of what we sell goes to EU countries.

I don't know the full details (although I have just had a quick google at what Germany exports to us and it is 6.6% totalling 2.6% GDP which kind of backs up what I am about to say), but I'd imagine we are talking small percentage of each country is directly involved with us. So if the worst came to worst they'd be a couple of points down, but trade will not just stop between us completely as people will still want and just stomach the increases. So in Germany's case it might go down to say 3.3% and 1.3% of GDP meaning they are only down by a percent or so. If the banks decide to head out en masse to Frankfurt as they have indicated then that minus probably becomes a plus.

If we use the same sort of calculations for ease, immediately we are 25% down (4% GDP) + the decimated financial sector + the car plants that say they will leave + the fact that we services based economy means a lot can move elsewhere very easily. So the economy could have shrunk by 10% GDP in a relatively short period of time. Then you factor in the shock, investors and companies will look to see how things lie but because we have lost 25% of the market, it will lead to job losses and companies folding which puts more pressure on the state. This leads to people tightening their belts, which leads to more job losses and so on.

And if that wasn't enough we have a country attached to us that will want out of our political and economic union if we leave the the EU with a no deal. This further adds to the uncertainty which will effect the markets.

Hopefully that gives a taste why I think other countries although will take a hit, it is nothing like the one we will take. It is also why I think the EU wouldn't be interested in a giveaway deal to keep us in as they will be able to absorb the shock better and indeed look to benefit from it by taking some of our companies/industries that still want to be inside of the EU.

I will agree on your last part, hopefully we never have to find out.

That reminds me, I havnt used my Sunday market analogy for a couple of years. That usually explains your post for those that wont want to believe its central premise.

 

[Jebus_lives]

I think the difference is that Boris has said we are leaving, the EU have never believed we would, I don’t believe for one second that the EU are prepared for no deal, I do however believe that we will be ready, so the EU may actually need a delay.......

Thoughts Pete?

 

[The binman chronicles]

Thoughts Pete?

Don't go spreading project fear in here...

 

[roydo]

Gordon Brown has gone all ITK on Brexit!

Says he has been talking to several senior EU bods and he says they are likely to offer an extension to allow a constructive dialogue to deliver an outcome that everyone is fine with.

The lunatic fringe will no doubt froth at the gills, but the sane amongst us would probably say that seems a decent result, and credit to Johnson if his grandstanding has spooked them.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Gordon Brown has gone all ITK on Brexit!

Says he has been talking to several senior EU bods and he says they are likely to offer an extension to allow a constructive dialogue to deliver an outcome that everyone is fine with.

The lunatic fringe will no doubt froth at the gills, but the sane amongst us would probably say that seems a decent result, and credit to Johnson if his grandstanding has spooked them.

His grandstanding may have spooked them, but he surely can't accept that otherwise he'll be branded a coward.

To me they're testing his resolve. Because he clearly doesn't want no deal. So it puts pressure on him to accept which calls his bluff about no deal.

His only option here is to turn it down or he's exposed.

 

[Barnfred 55]

But that is because the 27 other countries are losing free trade with just one country whereas we are losing 27 partners. It's like half of what we sell goes to EU countries.

I don't know the full details (although I have just had a quick google at what Germany exports to us and it is 6.6% totalling 2.6% GDP which kind of backs up what I am about to say), but I'd imagine we are talking small percentage of each country is directly involved with us. So if the worst came to worst they'd be a couple of points down, but trade will not just stop between us completely as people will still want and just stomach the increases. So in Germany's case it might go down to say 3.3% and 1.3% of GDP meaning they are only down by a percent or so. If the banks decide to head out en masse to Frankfurt as they have indicated then that minus probably becomes a plus.

If we use the same sort of calculations for ease, immediately we are 25% down (4% GDP) + the decimated financial sector + the car plants that say they will leave + the fact that we services based economy means a lot can move elsewhere very easily. So the economy could have shrunk by 10% GDP in a relatively short period of time. Then you factor in the shock, investors and companies will look to see how things lie but because we have lost 25% of the market, it will lead to job losses and companies folding which puts more pressure on the state. This leads to people tightening their belts, which leads to more job losses and so on.

And if that wasn't enough we have a country attached to us that will want out of our political and economic union if we leave the the EU with a no deal. This further adds to the uncertainty which will effect the markets.

Hopefully that gives a taste why I think other countries although will take a hit, it is nothing like the one we will take. It is also why I think the EU wouldn't be interested in a giveaway deal to keep us in as they will be able to absorb the shock better and indeed look to benefit from it by taking some of our companies/industries that still want to be inside of the EU.

I will agree on your last part, hopefully we never have to find out.

Mate. You've just done exactly what I accused you of. You've applied the same percentages to UK and Germany, but then added in your worst case scenario multiplier to the UK side.

Also, in my original post, I said the likes of Germany would ride it out, but I identified a number of countries whose economies are already on a knife edge and they are also very susceptible to the effects of a downturn in tourism. The GDPs of the likes of Ireland, Greece and Portugal in particular are also tiny compared to ours, like in less than 10% tiny. So even a small drop in exports could be very harmful.

Look, I'm not saying that the UK won't be hurt by a no deal Brexit. I've always spoken out against it in here. But the idea that all EU countries will come out of this unscathed is just wrong, and the ones that suffer most will become an extra burden on the likes of Germany and France.

 

[roydo]

His grandstanding may have spooked them, but he surely can't accept that otherwise he'll be branded a coward.

To me they're testing his resolve. Because he clearly doesn't want no deal. So it puts pressure on him to accept which calls his bluff about no deal.

His only option here is to turn it down or he's exposed.

You may well be right. My reading of it would be that he could now go into a new negotiation fully aware that the EU do not want a no deal. Not make stupid demands, but enough that all can leave with a deal that saves face, and is actually acceptable to most.

Reckon that would appeal to his ego.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I rarely see the EU being praised for anything mate, more being defended when leavers casually lob incorrect accusations at what latest ill they have inflicted on the UK. Or blame them for stuff the UK has the power to do but prefers not to.

Dealing in facts if you like.

The first bit is fair comment, and in fairness my post actually refers to that scenario, i.e. responses to me criticising the EU. However, I'd argue that my posts were not casually lobbed incorrect accusations. But I guess that's part of the reason why Leavers and Remainers are currently poles apart in their views.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Put your hands up bish x

That was the one person I was referring to. Was there another one?

 

[roydo]

The first bit is fair comment, and in fairness my post actually refers to that scenario, i.e. responses to me criticising the EU. However, I'd argue that my posts were not casually lobbed incorrect accusations. But I guess that's part of the reason why Leavers and Remainers are currently poles apart in their views.

I wasnt name checking you mate, fair criticism of the EU is fair game.

But it doesnt take much effort to see leaver after leaver after leaver proving their utter ignorance of their arguments on the internet. Thats kinda my point.

 

[Kurt.]

That was the one person I was referring to. Was there another one?

I do believe I showed you 3 different examples from 3 different posters.... and it took all of 30 seconds to find them. I’m sure if someone was willing to spend the time there would be a few more.

 

[roydo]

I do believe I showed you 3 different examples from 3 different posters.... and it took all of 30 seconds to find them. I’m sure if someone was willing to spend the time there would be a few more.

And that list didnt include me. Nor @Bruce Wayne who fumes when his bills to the EU take an age to be paid.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Put your hands up bish x

Ha ha.

Only one showed up on your post.

I wonder why that islol

 

[The binman chronicles]

Mate. You've just done exactly what I accused you of. You've applied the same percentages to UK and Germany, but then added in your worst case scenario multiplier to the UK side.

Please can you explain further? I am missing something here.

I implied that Germany could lose half of their exports to us and we would lose half for arguments sake of ours across the EU which counted for 48% of our total exports. So give or take 25% lost which is 4% of GDP. Not sure where this multiplier comes from.