Current Affairs EU In or Out

[roydo]

It also helps you develop a thick skin as well mate, especially if you were brought up when our neighbours were winning things

54 mate.

 

[random]

54 mate.

curse isn't it, at least we could enjoy the 80's.

back on topic: I think the current buffoon will grab at any straw he can to get a deal, several were offered to May and she refused them all to try and get her version through apparently (which was never going to happen), I guess they are probably still on the table so Johnson does have an 'out'.

 

[arminisgod]

If the EU do want to talk and get real now. How will people feel about all the MPs who have wasted 3 years?

 

[The binman chronicles]

If the EU do want to talk and get real now. How will people feel about all the MPs who have wasted 3 years?

I would be shocked and glad that they had shifted position. I still don't see them kowtowing to our demands though.

 

[Jebus_lives]

If the EU do want to talk and get real now. How will people feel about all the MPs who have wasted 3 years?

Same as I always have. The majority are trying to interpret 'leave' for all of its different possibilities to something that is acceptable to the UK electorate without damaging the country too greatly.

 

[random]

If the EU do want to talk and get real now. How will people feel about all the MPs who have wasted 3 years?

hopefully a bloodletting at the next general election.

 

[arminisgod]

I would be shocked and glad that they had shifted position. I still don't see them kowtowing to our demands though.

They will shift. For all peoples differing views we are still the biggest buyer and customer for the EU.

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

Gordon Brown has gone all ITK on Brexit!

Says he has been talking to several senior EU bods and he says they are likely to offer an extension to allow a constructive dialogue to deliver an outcome that everyone is fine with.

The lunatic fringe will no doubt froth at the gills, but the sane amongst us would probably say that seems a decent result, and credit to Johnson if his grandstanding has spooked them.

He hasn't spooked anybody, all he has done is backed himself into a corner. The EU have called his bluff by telling him that the only way that there could be any revision of the WA is if he comes up with a viable alternative proposal to the backstop which he has so far failed to do. That's not surprising of course because there isn't one.

In any case all 27 MS would have to agree to an extension which may prove difficult as some have had enough of the UK's government's behaviour, especially France.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Please can you explain further? I am missing something here.

I implied that Germany could lose half of their exports to us and we would lose half for arguments sake of ours across the EU which counted for 48% of our total exports. So give or take 25% lost which is 4% of GDP. Not sure where this multiplier comes from.

You assumed a position whereby we would lose 50% of our exports to the EU if we left with no deal. That's a bit on the negative side in my opinion, but I understand that you have to pick a figure just to make your point. You applied the same percentage reduction in exports from Germany to the UK. This would reduce our respective GDPs by 4% (UK) and1% (Germany). Fine.

You then went on to say that our GDP could actually be down by 10% after factoring in other unknowns such as car manufacturer closures and reductions in our Finance industry. That's an extra 6% of GDP which is what? around £150bn. You'd probably have to close down all our car plants and half the City of London. Plus a large element of the car manufacturing would already have been already counted in the 50% of exports we're losing.That's what I was referring to when I said worst case scenario multiplier.

 

[roydo]

I would be shocked and glad that they had shifted position. I still don't see them kowtowing to our demands though.

Not sure there would be much kowtowing personally. It isnt difficult to write a narrative that protects the EU with their 4 pillars, whilst acknowledging the economic reality and entwined structures that benefit us all.

No idea what mind. I deliver parcels, not political treaties.

 

[arminisgod]

He hasn't spooked anybody, all he has done is backed himself into a corner. The EU have called his bluff by telling him that the only way that there could be any revision of the WA is if he comes up with a viable alternative proposal to the backstop which he has so far failed to do. That's not surprising of course because there isn't one.

In any case all 27 MS would have to agree to an extension which may prove difficult as some have had enough of the UK's government's behaviour, especially France.

Easy for them to say that when they knew no deal was off the table. As everyone with a brain cell knew. That has changed now.

 

[roydo]

Easy for them to say that when they knew no deal was off the table. As everyone with a brain cell knew. That has changed now.

Aye, you get the impression that there is an awful lot of horse trading going on now. That story about Brown was in the Telegraph, not his natural bed fellow, and hardly an ally of Johnson.

Classic EU fudge? You decide.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Remainers have lost the plot.

Almost nobody wants a no deal... But we'd take that instead of a [Poor language removed] deal

You're not speaking for me mate. I'd take a poor deal over no deal.

I just don't think this is about Brexit anymore. It's every bit as much about healing the rift in the country once Brexit has been sorted.

 

[The binman chronicles]

You assumed a position whereby we would lose 50% of our exports to the EU if we left with no deal. That's a bit on the negative side in my opinion, but I understand that you have to pick a figure just to make your point. You applied the same percentage reduction in exports from Germany to the UK. This would reduce our respective GDPs by 4% (UK) and1% (Germany). Fine.

You then went on to say that our GDP could actually be down by 10% after factoring in other unknowns such as car manufacturer closures and reductions in our Finance industry. That's an extra 6% of GDP which is what? around £150bn. You'd probably have to close down all our car plants and half the City of London. Plus a large element of the car manufacturing would already have been already counted in the 50% of exports we're losing.That's what I was referring to when I said worst case scenario multiplier.

Ok thanks I can see what you are saying now. Honestly I'm not taking the worst case scenario figures to frighten, the financial sector is apparently worth 20% of GDP, this obviously includes your bog standard banking which would still be here but it wouldn't be a push to imagine the investment arms are worth 3-5% of that if not more. Add in all the other businesses that leave/change structure and are not around anymore to service the RotW after losing that much of their business within the EU and a 10% hit isn't a huge exaggeration.

 

[Barnfred 55]

If a deal is negotiated that meets approval from the HOC, and solves, or at worst, defers the border issue, the lunatic fringe will once again become the irrelevance they were before.

I am by nature optimistic, (rare for a Blue, I know), so at least there seems to be some traction.

I agree mate.

the problem as I see it is that Boris seems to have promised different people different things. If we end up getting a deal through Parliament by Spring next year then I think he's done a good job as regards Brexit. But he's going to have upset a lot of people along the way, including many in his own party.