Current Affairs EU In or Out

[catcherintherye]

Yes, and that would explain why Boris seems to be planning some "unusual for a Tory" public spending giveaways on the NHS, Police, education and infrastructure.
Outspending Labour? Got to appeal somehow.

To be honest Labour defeated the Conservatives on the economy at the last election (and in the lead up to it). McDonnell did a very good job as did the economists around him of putting a measured and costed plan which the public likes.

Tactically the Conservatives had a number of own goals, which kind of helped that situation. Not costing their manifesto was ridiculous. The line they had employed before, with a lot of success, that Labour were profligate and untrustworthy with the economy could hardly be repeated if you can't be bothered to stick some figures on a bit of paper.

More broadly I always thought May's initial gambit of moving away from Austerity, delivering for working people etc was also really stupid. It gave them a short term boost, but as people recognised it wouldn't be delivered they just became more frustrated. I think you will see similar with Johnson, but in truth the initial bounce has been nowhere near as strong for him.

Ironically the outspending Labour is a bold ploy but in some ways a sensible one. The problem is that it legitimises Corbyn's message and Corbyn. You can't on the one hand start dreaming up more spending than Labour, but then at the same time refer to his economic message as a Marxist one. There's little consistency with the message. You also have to acknowledge that in order to deliver said spending increases it will be very difficult to do so without tax increases, especially given we are hurtling towards another recession (and growth figures are down).

Johnson will not have the skill, or humility to navigate the conservatives through these choppy waters. I'd advise anybody to watch the Thatcher documentary on BBC if you want to see how a pro navigates the Tories through times of difficulty. The difference is stark.

But yes, Cummings and Johnson have a clear plan. The problem is (and I actually rate Cummings) his policy doesn't translate particularly well outside of a binary choice found in a referendum. I think an implosion could come from him, as many who know him see him as quite an intense charged individual and such people rarely respond well to being out of their depth.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Its working out that way, but its a complex subject why diffrent people voted to leave, been done to death on here .
But after the vote it has been handled very badly by all sides as far as i can see, and been a more or less waste of three years to achieve the sum total of nothing.
But get us to the sitation we are now in,
we could have left the day after with the same result and been 3 years down the line for all the good parliment have been on the subject.

I'm well aware. What I was trying to allude to was that the EU don't see everything in financial terms either, they take their principles very seriously.

 

[catcherintherye]

And that may well be the case. However Boris has everyone on the back foot today and I wouldn’t put it past him to keep them there.....

I don't see that at all to be honest mate. On the day he's announced his big decision he's lost his leader in Scotland, other MP's are criticising him and I've even seen talk of people resigning the whip. There's a petition against his decision running into the millions. On yougov the decision is opposed 2:1. None of his ministers are saying anything on it. It's a long way from a positive start.

He's also seemingly driven the opposition together on this, when patently his opponents can't stand one another. To me the cautious play would have been to allow them a little longer to squabble and not come to an amicable conclusion.

It's also driven people towards Corbyn. Corbyn spoke well yesterday and it appeared well received. Unfortunately (for some) he is the man best placed to stop this, and people are left with little choice but to have to get behind him.

This move looks bold and reckless. The problem is, for much of the political commentariat (who I have to say, even to international standards are useless in this country) can't see to understand that bold manoeuvres are not always (or generally) strong ones. Good luck trying to get them to grasp that though.

 

[catcherintherye]

So if we no deal, we can then just negotiate trade and stuff with individual EU countries ?, again, thanks for the clarification.....

The big problem he has mate, and I'm trying to be as objective as possible and put myself in their shoes, is day 1 after a no Deal what do they do? They have to go back to the EU to try and negotiate a deal. Except we will be in a more difficult position pretty quickly.

There's no doubt that the EU will also be damaged, but comparatively to a much lesser degree to Britain. So we end up having to do the same thing again, but from a position of greater weakness.

There may well be a very cunning plan in all of this, like let the situation become awful then accept any deal thrown at us? Maybe the calculation from ToryHQ is we have to suffer a bit before people can accept a compromise? I'm not sure. A risky plan but some logic behind it.

The idea posited though, by sections of the Leave camp, that we can leave and everything will be glorious is extremely naive. If thats the thinking they are in for a rude awakening.

You want my view on it? It's an exercise in bluff. As I've said throughout Johnson will take any concession the EU. I think the Tories will unite behind him on this, to stop Corbyn being elected. He is trying to show the EU he is serious about No Deal, and that it cannot be taken off the table without his say so.

The one elephant in the room with this is Cummings. A very bright man, but a complete maverick who looks at the world in a completely unusual way. I have the humility to accept he may well have seen a path to success that I just don't see via no deal. Johnson won't have done, and Cummings privately will likely think the bloke is a bit of a buffoon, but Cummings is a maverick.

 

[Billy Dean]

The UK’s membership of the European Space Agency is not affected by leaving the EU as it is not an EU organisation.

Other projects - such as Galileo, which are EU funded, we will no longer have access to if we leave with No Deal.

There’s also the Copernicus programme which is an EU environmental programme involving ESA and other similar organisations. Any British suppliers winning tenders are having clauses put in their contracts that they’re only valid as long as UK remains a member state of the EU

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

Jacob Rees-Mogg has said it was now up to the European Union to decide if they were prepared to renegotiate a"reasonable" Brexit deal or force Britain to leave without an agreement, according to Sky News.

lol Mogg playing the victim again by attempting to blame others for his own actions in forcing through something that only a few people want. What an utter fraud this man is. Him and Johnson are peas in a pod.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Jacob Rees-Mogg has said it was now up to the European Union to decide if they were prepared to renegotiate a"reasonable" Brexit deal or force Britain to leave without an agreement, according to Sky News.

lol Mogg playing the victim again by attempting to blame others for his own actions in forcing through something that only a few people want. What an utter fraud this man is. Him and Johnson are peas in a pod.

I hear he goes to EU meetings and complains about it being full of remoaners bullying the little old Brexiters, before shuffling off to the Old Etonians picture community.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

There’s also the Copernicus programme which is an EU environmental programme involving ESA and other similar organisations. Any British suppliers winning tenders are having clauses put in their contracts that they’re only valid as long as UK remains a member state of the EU

I've been supplying an EU agency for the last few years. Time will tell whether that will continue or be knocked on the head. Despite the bleating of Brexiters on here though, all of those I've engaged with through that work have been of the Tusk'ian perspective that this is a stain on the house of Tory rather than the UK as a whole, for whom a high regard is still very much felt.

 

[Jebus_lives]

The big problem he has mate, and I'm trying to be as objective as possible and put myself in their shoes, is day 1 after a no Deal what do they do? They have to go back to the EU to try and negotiate a deal. Except we will be in a more difficult position pretty quickly.

There's no doubt that the EU will also be damaged, but comparatively to a much lesser degree to Britain. So we end up having to do the same thing again, but from a position of greater weakness.

There may well be a very cunning plan in all of this, like let the situation become awful then accept any deal thrown at us? Maybe the calculation from ToryHQ is we have to suffer a bit before people can accept a compromise? I'm not sure. A risky plan but some logic behind it.

The idea posited though, by sections of the Leave camp, that we can leave and everything will be glorious is extremely naive. If thats the thinking they are in for a rude awakening.

You want my view on it? It's an exercise in bluff. As I've said throughout Johnson will take any concession the EU. I think the Tories will unite behind him on this, to stop Corbyn being elected. He is trying to show the EU he is serious about No Deal, and that it cannot be taken off the table without his say so.

The one elephant in the room with this is Cummings. A very bright man, but a complete maverick who looks at the world in a completely unusual way. I have the humility to accept he may well have seen a path to success that I just don't see via no deal. Johnson won't have done, and Cummings privately will likely think the bloke is a bit of a buffoon, but Cummings is a maverick.

The ERG clearly want a No Deal as does Farage. I'm not sure Johnson does. I don't think he's particularly bothered about Brexit. What he is bothered about is his reputation and legacy.

In my opinion, he's hoping the EU renegotiate for a 'better deal' in which case he can claim he's a hero or that he's stopped by Parliament, Judiciary or anyone so that he can shift the blame to someone else.

 

[neil999]

I hear he goes to EU meetings and complains about it being full of remoaners bullying the little old Brexiters, before shuffling off to the Old Etonians picture community.

your being a bit racist towards etonians here

 

[Khalekan]

Jacob Rees-Mogg has said it was now up to the European Union to decide if they were prepared to renegotiate a"reasonable" Brexit deal or force Britain to leave without an agreement, according to Sky News.

lol Mogg playing the victim again by attempting to blame others for his own actions in forcing through something that only a few people want. What an utter fraud this man is. Him and Johnson are peas in a pod.

Have you ever read Fintan O’Toole’s excellent book about Brexit......Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain.


He wrote the book about a year ago and everything he describes is coming to pass....right down to Rees Mogg and his ilk casting themselves as victims, Quixotic figures daringly riding into battle against windmills.

Fintan was moved to tweet a couple weeks ago and addressed it to the Johnson junta “Hey Boris, my book was not meant as an instruction manual” lol

 

[Joey66]

Johnno's Queen speech is taking up just four more days extra than the party conferences will take all this storm over 4 days ........Even Kevin Maguire deputy editor of the Daily Mirror agreed that was the case in last nights what the paper says last night ......
Barry Gardener Labour trade minister on LBC is promoting Civil unrest to be taken over this issue of a queens speech..............
Be glad when its all over roll on a GE.......

 

[Khalekan]

Johnno's Queen speech is taking up just four more days extra than the party conferences will take all this storm over 4 days ........Even Kevin Maguire deputy editor of the Daily Mirror agreed that was the case in last nights what the paper says last night ......
Barry Gardener Labour trade minister on LBC is promoting Civil unrest to be taken over this issue of a queens speech..............
Be glad when its all over roll on a GE.......

You think this is going to end after a GE?

No, sir......the damage done to the consensus society we enjoyed before Cameron unleashed this madness upon us will be with you and me until our dying day, Joe

 

[neil999]

imagine thinking farage, johnson, rees-mogg and banks are on the side of 'a normal working class man like me'

..............

 

[Joey66]

You think this is going to end after a GE?

No, sir......the damage done to the consensus society we enjoyed before Cameron unleashed this madness upon us will be with you and me until our dying day, Joe

I feel a deal will be done at the last day.......but the mild Barry Gardiner advocating civil unrest - Labour are doing themselves no favours there....... they are flummoxed whether what the PM has done rightly or wrong it's 4 days parliment will not sit added to all the party conferences.......