The chances currently rated as draw 49%, England win (don't think they've seen the forecast) 41%, West Indies 10%
In reality I just can't see how on earth England can win in the likely time available, even if they played out of their skins.
West Indies play extremely well and bowling first you have a chance to win in three days, but how on earth do you do it batting first, you just can't, you need to enforce a follow on and even then it's tough.
Winning the toss and bowling the only option really.
Being bowled out for a relatively low score of say 230-270, then restricting the West Indies to maybe a 50 deficit, is the best way to win a rain-shortened test.
