Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[peteblue]

Ha. I'm only 59. Always thought that one was for the ancients

Welcome to the Esteemed Order of Oldies........

 

[BlueToff]

Perhaps, though that counting thing might have been a dead cat deployed when the government tried to change the counting rules. I do wonder if it’s something more simple than that though, like better social health or even something mad like diet.

Not mad at all, though not sure Germany's diet is necessarily far better than ours (I know, just different and maybe they have different nutrients etc)

Do think diet and lifestyle is one of the huge factors which needs to be taken into account when considering Spain and Italy too.

 

[Nymzee]

Unfortunately, doesn't look I'm eligible. Have done my tax returns every year 16-19, which they are counting, but in that time 50% or more of my earnings didn't come from self-employment. I've been 'fully' self-employed since last April, so apparently I don't make the cut (as it stands). Just gonna have to hope that changes.

And yeh it's a good point. I'll try find the thing about how Germany are counting the deaths. Just think it's an important figure that needs to be counted the same across the board (maybe they are doing now and they really have just managed to keep it that low, but it seems very low - even factoring in those in a critical condition).

Ah that’s a shame mate. Does not working fully self-employed April to now not count as one financial year though?

Yeh, how are they discerning who died because of coronavirus and those that have it but died of something else? Is that even possible?

 

[tsubaki]

Then he should have done it a bit earlier and with an instant close because most pubs were already open and many were already full of customers even at 5.15pm. So pub staff could either try and close and cause a riot or just close as normal as allowed. Town centres would have been chaotic if half the pubs closed and half didn’t thereby pushing even more people together. The pubs did as they were told, only those that have had lock ins didn’t and they should be shut down....

Whenever he did it would have resulted in a load of people going for a last few drinks though, and even if he’d announced it at 4 am on Friday morning you’d have found mobs of people outside the off-licence once they woke up and found out.

 

[Nymzee]

Wouldn't argue with that mate, certainly in the short term.

But, in the medium term, you need to know who's had it, because it makes it easier to plan what to do next, which, for example would be very different for infection rates of 0.5%, 5% or 50%.

Obviously that assumes that having been infected offers some degree of immunity, which we don't know one way or the other, but that'll take time to find out, so you have to do what's possible here and now, and make educated guesses on the rest.

Yeh it’s the immunity we don’t know yet. I know someone was reported with a double case but believe that turned out bogus. Do they know if other strains of coronavirus have been caught multiple times?

 

[LinekersLegs]

Thought this a useful graphic on testing

 

[peteblue]

Not mad at all, though not sure Germany's diet is necessarily far better than ours (I know, just different and maybe they have different nutrients etc)

Do think diet and lifestyle is one of the huge factors which needs to be taken into account when considering Spain and Italy too.

That’s the Mediterranean Diet kicked into touch...

 

[tsubaki]

That’s the Mediterranean Diet kicked into touch...

get your money into sauerkraut / kimchi futures

 

[peteblue]

Whenever he did it would have resulted in a load of people going for a last few drinks though, and even if he’d announced it at 4 am on Friday morning you’d have found mobs of people outside the off-licence once they woke up and found out.

Indeed...see also toilet rolls.....

 

[Joey66]

It wasn’t - there were no checks at U.K. ports of entry, and I think there still isn’t.

That's what I meant to say even early on people were promoting checks them and sadly like now it seems insufficient ....
mainly on key workers NHS etc ....lets hope it improves as promised.....

 

[Shevin Keedy]

Which forum is it in. I'll go and introduce myself

They cannot remember.

 

[LinekersLegs]

More discharged than isolated is a superb milestone for S Korea


Back above 100 in new cases but high proportion seem to be imported cases

 

[Catfish Blues]

Perhaps, though that counting thing might have been a dead cat deployed when the government tried to change the counting rules. I do wonder if it’s something more simple than that though, like better social health or even something mad like diet.

It won't be any one thing though, nothing is.

Some combination of different testing regimes, better health care, different social distancing policies applied at different times, longer life expectancy, number of adults per household, number of smokers and all sorts of things ( many of which already effect each other ) will lead to different results.

Different testing regimes is probably the primary differentiator though.

 

[peteblue]

They cannot remember.

We actually lost it once.....

 

[evilwebby]

I think it will be September sorry to be even gloomier.....

No chance it will be that late, or if it does it will mean civilisation is wiped out.

The exponential function is the key here. As soon as the rate of growth has peaked then we are technically over the worst.

A jump from 100 cases to 150 cases to 250 to 500 cases over 3-4 days are daily increases of 50%, 66% and 100%, which is the dangerous phase. Conversely, a jump from 10,000 to 15,000 to 21,000 to 28,000, while the number of increases in total cases may be alarmingly, the percentage increases are 50%, 40%, 35%, so the rate of change is decreasing, and it becomes possible to project the eventual end.