dholliday
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What we need is data on how many of those incidental hospitalisations are unvaccinated.
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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What we need is data on how many of those incidental hospitalisations are unvaccinated.
Oh i know that mate, but with Omicorn being that bit milder, that strategy i often hear, so just making the point really.
Im not sure on that mate, the figures are subjective. The Uk for all their problems with testing, do give free antigen testing and are doing a million a day. Im not sure that test return equates to the figures you project. Even with a margin of error, im not sure 50% of cases are missing. Even if it was i dont think you could run a public health programme based on on a subjective margin of error.
If you run the Uk case numbers, vs testing, vs a realistic margin error - for what ever reason you arent far off the numbers we ran for Ireland. Then their is the shifting sands component of waning antibodies through natural/vaccination antibody reduction, in essence both are moving targets, hence the booster.
dholliday
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The booster has much less effectiveness (at least 30%) and wanes after much less time (after 9 weeks) for Omicron than it did for Delta.
Raises the valid question if boosting with the current vaccines is really necessary, as to maximise protection you'd need it in regular 3-month intervals. Are yous willing to accept that as an option for what is, by most accounts, a milder variant?
Up to three Covid jabs a year could be needed for protection, data suggests
UK analysis indicates Pfizer and Moderna boosters less effective against Omicron than Delta variant and appear to drop away further after nine week
grandjoeblue
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I included all of the UK Testing in my original figures. I know quite a lot of responsible people who have tested positive with no symptoms lately. There are 60m who aren't testing daily and a huge amount of them will be positive. If all 60m got tested even to get a 150,000 additional cases you would only need a positive rate of 0.25%. the current positive numbers are well over 10%.
It's a tough one but I strongly believe the peak will be reached before the 15th January in quite a few areas of England such as London, the North West and others.
Maybe some additional measures will be brought in but I don't think it will be for months on end as the numbers are relatively manageable (obviously the NHS will struggle but compared to last year it's much much more manageable).
peteblue
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Just stay in bed, sleep and get well…..
The booster has much less effectiveness (at least 30%) and wanes after much less time (after 9 weeks) for Omicron than it did for Delta.
Raises the valid question if boosting with the current vaccines is really necessary, as to maximise protection you'd need it in regular 3-month intervals. Are yous willing to accept that as an option for what is, by most accounts, a milder variant?
Up to three Covid jabs a year could be needed for protection, data suggests
UK analysis indicates Pfizer and Moderna boosters less effective against Omicron than Delta variant and appear to drop away further after nine weekwww.theguardian.com
It does mate, this is well known, 70% protection, that begins to wane after 10 weeks (is my understanding), antibody response doesn't dissapear then it just starts to wane. While you also have to account for a T Cell stimulated response from the booster to.
Do i think its necessary, definitely personally, but people will choose what they want to do after weighing up, in my opinion it will protect society through flu season- clinically the most vulnerable time of the year and into March. Where we know the seasonality aspect will kick in, April/May.
We go again in August and protect for the winter, the great optimism in between is for the anti virals and perhaps an Omicron specific (or whatever vairent) or who knows maybe a universal vaccine.
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We will have to agree to disagree there mate, id have a different outcome myself, running the numbers, but take on board your points, dont think its the clever play.
I think the Uk could be that bit earlier myself in terms of peak, i think our peak will be the 8th or 10th of January, with the health service still to deal with a bit carnage right the way up to mid/late February. That said there are a differences in restrictions between the UK and over here., so thats another variable,.
grandjoeblue
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I don't support allowing it to spread but the policy has been implemented now, say the Tories implement harsher measures on January 1st or whatever the peak will either be a week away or maybe 2 or 3 max.
My initial point was I don't think there will be months of heavy measures because the peak is so close. If he does implement measures I think based on the severity and current hospitalisations the measures would be in place for possibly 4-6 weeks.
Id hope to get through to March without a lock down at all mate. I see restrictions as enabling that, its looking at whats vital, jobs, schools etc and trying to keep as much going as we can. Largely i think Governments will move on what we see in hospitals and associated risks by a surge. I dont think anyone wants, restrictions or lock down, people, governments etc - but the likes of a Covid pass, etc, table service in pubs, limits at tables, mask mandates etc, could make a big difference.
Im hopeful the peak might come on case numbers in the next 7-10 days myself, but there will still be a follow through for health services up to March, thats optimistic probably and open to many variables, but a messy run from Jan - March is well telegraphed, id be hopeful we wont lock down again.
efcfanwirral
Player Valuation: £30m
Age really makes a difference too. The strategy works under a certain age (apart from vulnerable younger, and I don't mean unvaccinated), but has dangers above those ages. We can't separate the two demographics
efcfanwirral
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One idea for if they go down the mandatory route or just the regular booster route (not sure how its possible for one without the other) is not everyone takes it 3 times per year - what's the point of boosting everyone including younger before summer? It was fine then.The booster has much less effectiveness (at least 30%) and wanes after much less time (after 9 weeks) for Omicron than it did for Delta.
Raises the valid question if boosting with the current vaccines is really necessary, as to maximise protection you'd need it in regular 3-month intervals. Are yous willing to accept that as an option for what is, by most accounts, a milder variant?
Up to three Covid jabs a year could be needed for protection, data suggests
UK analysis indicates Pfizer and Moderna boosters less effective against Omicron than Delta variant and appear to drop away further after nine week
That in my opinion was driving the Delta wave, mate inter generational mixing, i think Children were the huge driver. The two biggest case incidents were in children and the average age of their parents. Maybe it will be the same with Omicron, but perhaps we are seeing a reprieve with schools out. I dont think politicians want to admit that schools are as much as a problem as they are as they enable much of society, thats the case over here anyway. We've let kids down in the last year public health wise in my opinion and haven't helped ourselves in the process, that the case anyway in Ireland in my opinion.
ForeverBlue92
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