Kev The Rat
Player Valuation: £70m
That’s not what I meant
Although on your point you’d think we’d at least reciprocate their ‘goodwill’ to us
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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Although on your point you’d think we’d at least reciprocate their ‘goodwill’ to us
You have to isolate for at least 2 days coming in from any country though, which is the sensible solution
Paris
What is love?
I wasn’t having a pop at you, more so the overreaction from Austria and Sweden.
Tell you what though lid,watching Spurs vs West Ham tonight made me happy that we’re still not going to enact restrictions, we’re very much living whilst others are seemingly having to make do with mere survival. Just need to hold our nerve.
Kev The Rat
Player Valuation: £70m
Thing is though there’s no tracking of these people when they come in. They can travel to any part of the country they want after landing, prior to isolating - isn’t that ridiculous ?
Probably, the whole thing is ridiculous. But then cooping people up in hotels like it's a prison isn't a good idea in my book anyway.
You're relying on people being sensible, following the law. It's not too much to ask. Plus, all travellers have to be negative the day before they travel to even get on the plane. Like, my mate's just come back from Amsterdam, he flew last night at 9:30 and 12 hours earlier he did a lateral flow and tested negative. Straight from the airport to get his PCR, straight home. He's got his result back tonight and he's negative. It's easy enough.
Both things can be true though
a) that the reduction in socializing and uptake in boosters have made in difference - both been pretty significant at least anecdotally.
b) the worse case scenario models aren’t matching present reality.
Those worse case scenarios will have been built on things like vaccine from severe disease being substantially eroded or the boosters not being effective against Omicron.
Given the quite dramatic differences in Omicron’s genetic makeup I don’t think it an error that these possibilities were included in modeling as one possibility in a range of scenarios.
yeah unfortunately the way it was publicised by the press causes panic
I'd recommend watching the first 15 mins of the Dr Campbell vid I posted earlier Legs if you get chance as he goes through Australia's CMOs quotes on modelling. The guy basically hit out at the media for publishing the worst-case scenario models and explained why it was so unlikely. Whereas here, those scenarios have been publicised and then the CMOs haven't even qualified them in their briefings really. Not that i have anything major against Vallance and Whitty.
grandjoeblue
Player Valuation: £35m
It's definitely an error. Having an almost impossible scenario is not acceptable at this stage, the models should tighten and improve as the pandemic progresses. I'm a moron but even I knew the vaccine would be relatively effective, doing models with zero effectiveness when SA shows the complete opposite is ridiculous.
Pagel is an absolute disgrace who is out to make some money and a TV career. She shouldn't be on TV.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
There are too many nobodies who have been thrust into the limelight and they don’t want to give it up. How anyone can take anything Ferguson says without laughing is beyond me, he is a serial failure….
Sorry that meant to say “the boosters not being as effective against Omicron“, I haven’t looked at the particular UK models but doubt they included anything as unlikely as zero effectiveness.
Early on there wasn’t detailed knowledge of vaccine effectiveness or otherwise from South Africa - certainty not for the AZ vaccine as they don’t use it and as we’ve previously discussed they haven’t done much boosting. So I feel a range of scenarios would have been appropriate as long as they were balanced across a spectrum.
Each to their own and I can’t comment to how she is on TV but personally I find the data she provides online to be interesting (even if I don’t often agree with her conclusions or policy recommendations) and I’m not the only data nerd that does!
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
We are fools to ourselves when it come to Covid PR. We do well over a million tests per day and therefore find more cases. Meanwhile the likes of Germany do about 20% of our tests, get similar numbers and far more deaths, and then they ban the U.K. from going to Germany. This has happened from the very beginning, logging everything as Covid no matter the cause of death, over testing , and being too damn honest. …….
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Boris needs to come out and state that there will be no additional restrictions either for Christmas or the New Year. It would cheer up the whole country, give confidence to our economy and businesses and make Sturgeon and Drakeford look like the lightweight idiots they are…….
@Neiler
A computational biologist weighs in on Omicron, the future of vaccines, and the CDC’s variant forecast
A computational biologist thinks potentially half the globe may contract Omicron over the coming weeks and months.www.statnews.com
Hes brilliant mate thanks for posting that I enjoyed reading it. It’s an interesting point that Omicron is no different in severity than previous variants, but the level of antibody and T-Cell reaction is actually meaning less serious illness and hospitalisations, it could be only now we are seeing the real protection of the vaccines. It makes perfect sense, there was still a fair degree of people unvaccinated when Delta came.
Still it’s quit stark his prediction on penetration, 50% of the population give or take and vaccine escape, I’d be bricking myself if I was unvaccinated. Really scary odds when do you the maths on transmissibility and risk of severe disease if you're unvaccinated.
Excellent point on Israel and their profile as the canary in terms of impact and boosters, hadn’t thought of that, again he’s speaks so much sense on my hobby horse of seasonality and planning your booster programmes to be done and dusted by the end Sep/Oct.
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