Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Kind of funny to turn on the news this morning and find that the narrative is gradually starting to shift to, “Well actually, the South African scientists knew what they were talking about all along.” It seems now like any restrictions at this point may end up coming down to NHS staffing/isolation issues as opposed to a tidal wave of hospitalizations.
 
I could say the same of you two...did you read the pieces behind the links?

The links confirm that the usual development time for vaccines is around 10 years. They also confirm the Covid vaccine's development was rushed. One example from those links is them explaining how pre-clinical assessments were skipped. Another example is how usual safety-assessments (which last around 2 years) was rushed to mere months. There's no way to artifically expand 2-3 months into 2-3 years, regardless of how much funding you have. The time just isn't there, so there's no way of knowing about safety concerns 2-3 years down the line.

Other clinical phases of development like testing to see if the vaccine will actually work was rushed through or skipped altogether. Which explains why the protection only holds for a few months, why boosters are required, and why mutations will require tweaks to the formular.

It's a fair call to say the development was rushed. A decent effort, sure. I've always said I agree that on average the vaccines reduce the potential severity of heavy Covid within the first few months, probably by about 4-to-1 (when looking at hospitalisation data).

But the development was objectively rushed.



During a peak-wave of an active global pandemic, the unvaccinated...at most...never approach using 3% of total NHS beds. This is entirely reasonable. Any National Health Service of a first-world country should easily be able to cope...and if it can't cope with less than 3% of extra patients during a peak-wave of a pandemic (especially considering the usual flu numbers are massively down, which more than cancels out those 3%), then there's some serious problems within the infrastructure or organisation...blaming those extra 3% of patients is what is unjustifiable.




Because Australia and New Zealand are already sending folk to camps. Did you not know that?

It's hardly madness to be concerned such camps could make their way into Europe, especially considering the incessantly aggressive & poisonous narrative towards the unvaccinated.



Long Live Death!


The Great Question remains...who is the hero, and who be the villain?


Thanks mate. I'm only back for a little bit...just trying to protect discriminated minorities by injecting some balance into one-sided debate.

These are seriously dodgy times, and not because of the virus. Gods willing, some listen.



What's your source for this assumption? The current double-vaccinated aren't very well protected against Omicron, with even the Boosters only offering 4-6 weeks of some extra protection before quickly waning. Source for this are the chiefs of the vaccine-makers themselves...hence them rushing to make new ones.



This is horribly inhumane and goes against every sacred Doctor/Nurse oath we've ever known.

Mass-murdering terrorists who get wounded by police, or drunk-drivers who plough into pushchairs, will get more hospital treatment than the unvaccinated if you have your way.

It's been a real eye-opener to see how morally low some of you are going.



Wow...2 days difference. That is frankly statistically insignificant, especially considering the stricter social rules for unvaccinated folk.


Who's cherry-picking? You've just cherry-picked a near-insignificant difference of 2 days.

FACT: there is no significant overwhelming evidence that the unvaccinated spread the virus more than the vaccinated.
FACT: politicians, media and their followers are majorly pushing this narrative regardless.

The question is why are they pushing this?

Think about that.




My own data = official UK government statistics.



What vaccine scepticism? I'm protecting the rights of the voluntarily-unvaccinated to remain so without being blamed for things for which they are not responsible.



How am I "potentially putting people at risk and doing harm."?

This is a big dangerous accusation to make. Why are you making it?



So low? It's the same as UK. Same as most Western European Nations. UK has more boosted, tho'.

Also interesting:

Germany total double-jabbed rate: 70%
Germany population: 83m
Germany total Covid deaths: 109,000
Germany deaths-percentage: 0.0013%
Germany Booster rate: 38%

UK total double-jabbed rate: 70%
UK population: 67m
UK total Covid deaths: 147,000
UK deaths-percentage: 0.0021%
UK Booster rate: 56%

So Germany's rate-of-death is around 40% less than UK's, despite similar double-vaccination rate, and less booster-rate.


You don't really know yourself what you were trying to say there, do you?




This is the critical thing!

Why are the politicians, media & useful idiots pushing the narrative that the unvaccinated are the problem...when the problem appears to be the likely scenario of needing 6 jabs within 12 months:

Jab 1: 1st vaccine dose Summer 2021.
Jab 2: 2nd dose few weeks later
Jab 3: Booster around Winter 2021/22.
Jab 4: Omicron-formular 1st dose Spring 2022.
Jab 5: 2nd dose few weeks later.
Jab 6: Omicron Booster Summer 2022 (the recommended time between double-jabs and boosters is now 3 months).


@everyone, are you all willing to take 6 jabs within 12 months?




Rich coming from you, I've seen your horrific comments on the drone bombs killing Afghan civilians, and on your support for Assange to be carted off to US for the crime of exposing war-atrocities....you have some inhumane views on things.

I'd rather be seen as a loon than be seen to support evil.




Been there, done that.

@davek was a hard vicious battle, but in the end he proved to be an honorable opponent...once we got it out of our system we became respectful, sometimes even amicable, despite still having different views on certain things.





Thanks for making a thoughtful reply.

Re: 1) I did already do that by stating the approx. 4-to-1 ratio of unvaccinated taking up more hospital beds than vaccinated. My core argument is that despite this, we should not be blaming everything on the unvaccinated. For it's this blame that is disproportionate.

Life is full of risk and full of choice. The smoker & drinker will more likely require care than the tee-total etc. We still treat lung cancer as and when required.

Re: 2) how is "an unvaccinated person at a higher risk at being infected"? What are you basing that on? Older Delta data? Current Omicron case analysis doesn't appear to support this. It looks like being vaccinated offers no less risk of being infected with Omicron than being unvaxxed.



Disinformation. South Africa only has around 26% double-jabbed rate.



The boosters offer around a 70%-protection boost against Omicron for about 4-6 weeks before tailing off (source: the firms behind the vaccines themselves). This rather unimpressive performance is because the current jabs were designed to combat the virus from 3 generations ago (the original Wuhan variant).

Omicron itself looks to be fairly mild for non-risk folk, so there's an argument that the Booster will knock you for six more than Omicron would, by the law of averages based on the data so far.

In March/April the Omicron-formular vaccines should be ready, likely offering a better balance of pros/cons. It's not yet known if there'll be any adverse effects for those taking the new vaccines if only mere months previously they also received the Wuhan-variant booster.

For those who do want to take the vaccines, it's at least worth being aware of this so you can make a sensible call for yourself.



South Africa has a tiny booster rate...not even 10%...and only a 26% double-jabbed rate...they are currently not needing additional measures despite having Omicron a few weeks longer than UK.

As I said above, the current vaccines (and boosters) aren't designed to combat Omicron. You would need to wait for the new vaccines to remotely support your statement.



Of course the vaccines are experimental. This isn't even under debate. We're in the middle of an active pandemic. The chiefs of Moderna, Biontech & Astra-Z have all stated they are developing new vaccines to combat the latest mutations. They're experimenting right now. The results of these experiments should be ready by Spring this year.

It's no shame to admit the experimental nature of the current, and incoming, vaccines. The world has never had a global vaccine push like this, and especially not one with relatively new vaccine tech like MRNA-based, the development of which was famously fast-tracked.

Once the pandemic has ended (hopefully!) then we'll have a settled vaccine routine...likely with annual tweaks similar to how the flu jab gets updates based on what the dominant mutations are. At this settled point we can then argue the vaccines are no longer experimental, but routine.
Where in the article does it mention 4-6 weeks before protection reduces?
 
Kind of funny to turn on the news this morning and find that the narrative is gradually starting to shift to, “Well actually, the South African scientists knew what they were talking about all along.” It seems now like any restrictions at this point may end up coming down to NHS staffing/isolation issues as opposed to a tidal wave of hospitalizations.
The thing is, unless all you paid attention to us headlines (and not the full article) and ranting on here, all the experts have ever said all along was we need to wait and see, it’s too early to tell and that growth rate alone (even with reduced severity) could have an impact on the NHS. Which I don’t think is unreasonable.
 
"Infections are in people who may be asymptomatic, we don't know what that number is, but certainly it's a worrying number" WOW give that woman a raise.


It would definitely be worrying if hospitilisations reflect the true number of infections, because you'd probably end up with more hospitlisations than confirmed cases.

Estimates are that there's between 3-5 x more infections than confirmed cases. So we could have been looking at 300,000 infections yesterday or even 500,000. But, in a week or so's time, it's very unlikely that hospitlisations will reflect that, because so many people are asymptomatic (due in large part to natural immunity and the vaccines, and at least in some part due to every strain of COVID having always been asymptomatic in 1/3 people)
 
Kind of funny to turn on the news this morning and find that the narrative is gradually starting to shift to, “Well actually, the South African scientists knew what they were talking about all along.” It seems now like any restrictions at this point may end up coming down to NHS staffing/isolation issues as opposed to a tidal wave of hospitalizations.
Yep, which is why they've reduced the isolation period to 7 days (as long as it's 2 successive negative tests on day six and day seven).

If they need to further reduce that, they should probably do it to day 4 and 5 for fully vaccinated/boosted people. But again only with the successive negative tests.
 
The U.K. counts antigen tests though as official tests, no one else does. If everyone did they would have the same number. There are kiosks all over Europe, you get an antigen test, within 20 mins, done binned and QR code sent to your phone, if your unvaccinated and want to access hospitality, which lasts 24 hours. In Germany they have vending machines all over the country, you can get them. Over here you can get them in the newsagents or Lidel and the like all regulated and quality assured. No one counts them.

Personally Ive taken three antigen tests this week as I was in the U.K. at the weekend, the better half the same, we just throw them in the bin after, they aren’t counted as an official test here.

Its like I was saying earlier, you have to be very careful what you are comparing nationally on track and trace, you might be counting 80% antigen tests, when the rest of the World is chucking them in the bin after using and they aren’t cumulated or recognised as official tests.
Are the antigen tests like the lateral flow ones?

Tbf I've not logged any of the LF tests I've done in the last few days as they've all been negative. That's just me being lazy like.

All you do is scan a QR mate and then they're logged on the system once you've put whether it's posiitve or negative. It's not that different?
 
If the cases are hitting six figures now each day but hospitalisations are not increasing proportionally, that means statistically covid is getting less of an issue.

Going off loose numbers, the percentage of weekly tests ending up in hospital currently (loose figures) is 1.1%. if we know the majority are unvaccinated , that means the true number of patients vaccinated and in hospital is going to be .1% at best of weekly cases.
 
So, we have had the predicted outbreak at work. Loads have phoned in with failed home tests, and vast majority struggling to get a proper test.
Actually had a whole ward of staff had to leave work yesterday. Outbreak on the ward with patients. All staff told to do a lateral. All failed. 6 staff sent home. That was a fun day. Proplem now being, you have to replace them. When nearly every patient has been diagnosed with COVID, what's gonna happen to the staff covering, and then they go off and so on.
This is gonna be a fun few weeks.
 
Kind of funny to turn on the news this morning and find that the narrative is gradually starting to shift to, “Well actually, the South African scientists knew what they were talking about all along.” It seems now like any restrictions at this point may end up coming down to NHS staffing/isolation issues as opposed to a tidal wave of hospitalizations.

Fresh out the Dr. Nick Riviera school of medicine. Saved I tell you!
 
Kind of funny to turn on the news this morning and find that the narrative is gradually starting to shift to, “Well actually, the South African scientists knew what they were talking about all along.” It seems now like any restrictions at this point may end up coming down to NHS staffing/isolation issues as opposed to a tidal wave of hospitalizations.
To be fair, Uk scientists were pretty clear that we were waiting to see Uk data, due to potential population differences, rather than saying the SAs didn’t know what they were talking about. Think that was a reasonable position to take.

the 2nd sentence is interesting, as I think you’re dead right. With, say, an extra 10% admissions due to covid, a reasonable argument can be made for lockdowns. That argument is much more difficult if it’s more down to NHS staffing, rather than Covid admissions, and the conversation should be more towards better preparing and staffing the NHS, rather than lockdowns to solve the problem.
 
To be fair, Uk scientists were pretty clear that we were waiting to see Uk data, due to potential population differences, rather than saying the SAs didn’t know what they were talking about. Think that was a reasonable position to take.

the 2nd sentence is interesting, as I think you’re dead right. With, say, an extra 10% admissions due to covid, a reasonable argument can be made for lockdowns. That argument is much more difficult if it’s more down to NHS staffing, rather than Covid admissions, and the conversation should be more towards better preparing and staffing the NHS, rather than lockdowns to solve the problem.
Definitely not criticizing the scientists for saying we needed to wait to determine the next moves. Just that the “Horrible wave of hospitalization and death inbound” narrative has been far more prominent on the news the past week than the “South African doctors on the ground are almost unanimously agreeing this variant is milder” one that was always running parallel to it.
 
Load of people I know tested positive this week; perfect timing for Christmas. I usually only pop into this thread to see if any rumours of changing regs are about. Bunch of stats nerds the last few pages.
Hopefully those people won't be part of the increase of hospitalization we are seeing for the "nerds" to post up. Who wants to be a statistic!?
 
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