Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Neiler]

If they made a decision to lock down right now, it would be to try and slow the surge.

But, they won't do that. If they do make a decision to lockdown, it would come in a week or two, so it would be largely pointless, as the surge is happening now.

And by a week or two's time, we'll clearly see if Omicron is actually having any impact. The people who are dismissive of COVID obviously say it won't be. The people who believe the sky is falling in every other day obviously will think we will have 100,000s deaths.

All the evidence so far shows us that Omicron is very mild, whether that's down to natural infection, vaccines, boosters. It's mild. The issue is how transmissible it is and if it hits enough people quickly enough, then what might that lead to. But based on the evidence we actually have, the SAGE predictions certainly are an overreaction right now, even if it is right to overreact rather than underreact...

France we’re hit with a Delta surge at the end on Nov mate, I think those increased hospitalisations may be the result.

 

[Walken]

that's about exactly the same (70%) incidental admission rate as we saw in South Africa.

We're going to know more in a week but if they blink and lockdown there should be no coming back. There is no need for it based on cases alone.

If there was any chance of a reprieve for the Johnson administration at all after what they have done, then its the british public that's not fit for purpose!

 

[dublinbluenose]

Here's cases updated for yersterdat in four select countries. I chose the Netherlands as they imposed lockdown restrictions yesterday/Friday despite falling case rates (???)

View attachment 148907

Here's hospitilisations for the same countires. Something is seriously wrong in France... Why do they have so many people in hospital? Low vaccine uptake? Also, as I pointed out, Denmark are well into their Omicron wave (at least 8 days but more like two weeks, with that spike starting on December 5) yet there is no rise in hospitilisations as of yet.
View attachment 148906

Mrs Dublinbluenose works for a French compnay, the office staff in France are all back in the office fulltime - despite their being a remote working policy in the company.

There isnt a mask in sight and half the office is coughing and spluttering over the desk on Zoom calls.

Seems to be a bit of a general malaise anecdotally.

 

[BlueToff]

France we’re hit with a Delta surge at the end on Nov mate, I think those increased hospitalisations may be the result.

yep looks that way

 

[BlueToff]

If there was any chance of a reprieve for the Johnson administration at all after what they have done, then its the british public that's not fit for purpose!

well, quite

but you know, realistically there will be unfortunately - maybe this Xmas party debacle has tipped it over the edge already. Another lockdown definitely would.

My issue with the lockdown is that if it was going to be done and effective it should have been a few weeks ago. I'm not saying I wanted it, or that it would have been an easy choice, but it would have been the snap lockdown to curtail Omicron spread and give them chance to get all the booster roll out done before Xmas. You would have obviously risked the same issues with opening up at Xmas, though, but at least the lockdown would have given extra time.

On the flip side, locking down after Xmas, when Omicron is about to peak (it would seem based on the modelling the government is working off that they expect it to peak around about the start of the New Year) would seem too late...

And, based on the data from elsewhere, which is what we have to go off right now, hospitalisations do not rise drastically despite cases rising drastically. And in a week or so's time we will see if that's the case here too.

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

Don't lockdown.

Refuse treatment to the unvaccinated, free up some beds.

Let their bodies pile high in the streets.

 

[Kev50]

Personally? On the streets? None.

I am however aware of the nearly 171,000 people who've died from (or with) this in hospital, homes and on the streets.

I think the key word here is 'with'.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Sage only seem to be modelling the bad scenarios. I dont understand the reason for this.

 

[tsubaki]

I think the key word here is 'with'.

it is certainly the one a lot of people are hanging all their argument on

 

[Kev50]

Sage only seem to be modelling the bad scenarios. I dont understand the reason for this.

because the good scenarios don't add to their case for lockdown

 

[CharliePotato]

No you’re not your little fibber

Sweet mate.

 

[efcfanwirral]

Sage only seem to be modelling the bad scenarios. I dont understand the reason for this.

Was literally just reading that Spectator article / Twitter exchange and its all very interesting. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

 

[tsubaki]

Sage only seem to be modelling the bad scenarios. I dont understand the reason for this.

Largely it is because there aren't any plausible good scenarios (as in the government does not have anything that it could plausibly set up as a reason why something wouldn't spread).

 

[navidson]

Really wish that the 'Hospital Admissions' daily data included a breakdown which stated whether the 'primary cause of hospitalisation' was Covid.

I think the figures would be a whole lot less terrifying in this current 'wave'

 

[ToffeeTim]

Was literally just reading that Spectator article / Twitter exchange and its all very interesting. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

Yeah I read that too and the twitter exchange. It is interesting but also ridiculous too.