Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Neiler]

We know it'll go up.

The only question is what the government are willing to accept.

Its not the number mate. I said 6 weeks ago a jump in cases from 100-200 approx was very concerning and everyone said dont worry the numbers are low, what people didn't factor in and the source for my concern was the nature of exponential growth. Its not about the number its about the trend. Yesterday there 32k cases in the UK.

Yesterday and day before i posted figures on hospital admissions and the rate of trend of increase, again exponential growth needs to be taken into account. we can forget about case numbers now, that horse has bolted in terms of suppression, hospitalisation figures are now what to keep an eye on. Boris said they have broken the link between case numbers and hospitalisation, at the moment the only figures that matter are hospitalisation all eyes need to be there and the growth rate of admissions. We're seeing 100% exponential growth at a rate every 11 days at the moment on hospital admission,, that how it started with case numbers 100-200 cases. The next two weeks are the acid test in terms of any link broken. I would however suggest in that intervening peiord its bananas from a public health point of view to open up the whole country and tell everyone not to wear masks and social distance. Its actually crazy.

 

[BlueToff]

Its not the number mate. I said 6 weeks ago a jump in cases from 100-200 approx was very concerning and everyone said dont worry the numbers are low, what people didn't factor in and the source for my concern was the nature of exponential growth. Its not about the number its about the trend. Yesterday there 32k cases in the UK.

Yesterday and day before i posted figures on hospital admissions and the rate of trend of increase, again exponential growth needs to be taken into account. we can forget about case numbers now, that horse has bolted in terms of suppression, hospitalisation figures are now what to keep an eye on. Boris said they have broken the link between case numbers and hospitalisation, at the moment the only figures that matter are hospitalisation all eyes need to be there and the growth rate of admissions. We're seeing 100% exponential growth at a rate every 11 days at the moment on hospital admission,, that how it started with case numbers 100-200 cases. The next two weeks are the acid test in terms of any link broken. I would however suggest in that intervening peiord its bananas from a public health point of view to open up the whole country and tell everyone not to wear masks and social distance. Its actually crazy.

I’d keep it as mandatory (masks etc)

the guidance is still going to be there - whether people listen to it is another thing

I imagine in places like supermarkets, transport it’ll relatively be similar as to now. Honestly I would keep it as mandatory in those places.

However, I think it’ll be a different story etc in pubs, restaurants and that is a bit of a worry

but with the adult population vaccinated (or at least mostly) - then I really don’t know what the other solution is to trying it.

To add to this though, hospitalisations need to be taken into context. Bare numbers is fine, but also, how long are the stays, are they in icu, age of the patients - these all need to be taken into account

for example, the 26 year old I know who went in a few weeks ago with pneumonia from covid effects, would never have been taken I. At the peak

 

[Brennan]

Its not the number mate. I said 6 weeks ago a jump in cases from 100-200 approx was very concerning and everyone said dont worry the numbers are low, what people didn't factor in and the source for my concern was the nature of exponential growth. Its not about the number its about the trend. Yesterday there 32k cases in the UK.

Yesterday and day before i posted figures on hospital admissions and the rate of trend of increase, again exponential growth needs to be taken into account. we can forget about case numbers now, that horse has bolted in terms of suppression, hospitalisation figures are now what to keep an eye on. Boris said they have broken the link between case numbers and hospitalisation, at the moment the only figures that matter are hospitalisation all eyes need to be there and the growth rate of admissions. We're seeing 100% exponential growth at a rate every 11 days at the moment on hospital admission,, that how it started with case numbers 100-200 cases. The next two weeks are the acid test in terms of any link broken. I would however suggest in that intervening peiord its bananas from a public health point of view to open up the whole country and tell everyone not to wear masks and social distance. Its actually crazy.

100% this.

I hate “the link is broken” as a term because it’s so disingenuous. The link hasn’t been broken at all, just the ratio of cases vs hospitalisations has changed.

If we end up with 100,000 cases per day hospitals will be in trouble and over the next three months thousands will die and tens of thousands will be left with long term physical health issues via long covid.

 

[Moomin]

People aren't getting checked for cancer etc. This is mentioned constantly on the news.

Did you miss the delta variant SAGE article I posted? We should currently have more hospitalisations now than last winter based on those predictions.

The reason people are not getting checked for Cancer is down to covid measures? Think about it again please.

Why were these measures brought about in the first place?? To protect what??

The Delta variant article you posted was by Imperial college and all three different models they run shows that even in the worst possible case we would not have currently more hospitalisations.

Has the second report predicted more deaths though? it's run a few different methods and one being a worse case scenario about certain vaccine's not being effective and the Delta variant being very highly transmissable ( All guesswork by the report and states so )

So, lets move onto SAGE. What predictions have they made in the last six months??

One thing i will point out though, when Chris Whitty made predictions late last summer about second wave and the number of deaths per day , didn't they get rubbished by a lot of the written press at the time??

 

[grandjoeblue]

The reason people are not getting checked for Cancer is down to covid measures? Think about it again please.

Why were these measures brought about in the first place?? To protect what??

The Delta variant article you posted was by Imperial college and all three different models they run shows that even in the worst possible case we would not have currently more hospitalisations.

Regarding cancer I don't know how they can get people confident enough to go to hospitals to be diagnosed. Its not the easiest thing to resolve as some people are very fearful of covid even after vaccination.



The graphs on this tweet are Warwick predictions which are quite off. Haven't got a clue who the tweeter is or his politics but from what I can tell the numbers look accurate.

I wouldn't be particularly against masks on trains etc but I don't really see what people are suggesting. When should we end the lockdown? If it can't end this month it can't end until May 2022.

 

[Moomin]

Regarding cancer I don't know how they can get people confident enough to go to hospitals to be diagnosed. Its not the easiest thing to resolve as some people are very fearful of covid even after vaccination.



The graphs on this tweet are Warwick predictions which are quite off. Haven't got a clue who the tweeter is or his politics but from what I can tell the numbers look accurate.

I wouldn't be particularly against masks on trains etc but I don't really see what people are suggesting. When should we end the lockdown? If it can't end this month it can't end until May 2022.

So if we get rid of Covid measures, this will make people more confident to get tested for Cancer?? How will that work??

Is Warwick University now SAGE?

The next tweet by that fella has LSHTM modelling the numbers which look more accurate.

 

[grandjoeblue]

So if we get rid of Covid measures, this will make people more confident to get tested for Cancer?? How will that work??

Is Warwick University now SAGE?

The next tweet by that fella has LSHTM modelling the numbers which look more accurate.

I don't know it works but SAGE release the Imperial and Warwick predictions so they must be linked in some way.

The hospitalisations on the second set of numbers do look closer to reality but the deaths look high to me. I don't think there will be 200 deaths a day in less than 2 weeks time. I would imagine it will be below 100 at that point?

 

[Dharma]

Letter published in The Lancet today calling for Johnson's crazy Herd Immunity plan to be halted.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext

Scientists discuss the plan to use the UK population as a huge SARS CoV2 Petri-dish.

 

[navidson]

So if we get rid of Covid measures, this will make people more confident to get tested for Cancer?? How will that work??

Is Warwick University now SAGE?

The next tweet by that fella has LSHTM modelling the numbers which look more accurate.

I'm not necessarily sure it's purely down to a confidence issue

It's incredibly difficult to get any sort of appointment with a GP at the moment - They seem to be one of the few employment industries that are still shielding from the public. It's hard to have an 'E-Consultation' about whether you have Cancer or not

 

[COYBL25]

I'm not necessarily sure it's purely down to a confidence issue

It's incredibly difficult to get any sort of appointment with a GP at the moment - They seem to be one of the few employment industries that are still shielding from the public. It's hard to have an 'E-Consultation' about whether you have Cancer or not

My best mate`s partner is a GP, my neighbour across the road is a GP in the same practice and my brother in law is a GP in another part of the country.

One hardly sees any patients and won`t let anyone into her room and does most stuff via zoom or on the phone.
Another is operating as completely normal GP and the other is operating as a hybrid of the two.

My elderly parents GP practice actually has a chain across the entrance and you have to buzz, to be physically allowed in, after you`ve passed the receptionists grilling.

My own GP practice, is operating more or less, as it was before all this kicked off.

Just from that little snapshot, it would appear that each GP practice is operating under it`s own set of rules, which in turn is causing people to bypass / give up on their GP and go straight to A&E - causing the massive rise in A&E attendance that has been reported on.

It seems that GP`s are kings of their very own castle and until this is sorted out, problems like you`ve mentioned above will just carry on. ( I`m not knocking GP`s by the way )

 

[marnie]

Back to work Thank God.

 

[COYBL25]

Back to work Thank God.

All in all, how long were you off ?

 

[navidson]

My best mate`s partner is a GP, my neighbour across the road is a GP in the same practice and my brother in law is a GP in another part of the country.

One hardly sees any patients and won`t let anyone into her room and does most stuff via zoom or on the phone.
Another is operating as completely normal GP and the other is operating as a hybrid of the two.

My elderly parents GP practice actually has a chain across the entrance and you have to buzz, to be physically allowed in, after you`ve passed the receptionists grilling.

My own GP practice, is operating more or less, as it was before all this kicked off.

Just from that little snapshot, it would appear that each GP practice is operating under it`s own set of rules, which in turn is causing people to bypass / give up on their GP and go straight to A&E - causing the massive rise in A&E attendance that has been reported on.

It seems that GP`s are kings of their very own castle and until this is sorted out, problems like you`ve mentioned above will just carry on. ( I`m not knocking GP`s by the way )

Not only this - but they are paid a kings ransom to currently do a tiny proportion of the work nurses are doing

My own GP practice has a similar set-up to the one you mentioned - a holding pen at the entrance of the building, greeted by a member of staff, nobody in the waiting rooms etc. They do not have any sort of online presence in terms of being able to book appointments, you have to ring up at 8.30 in the morning and hope you managed to snag an appointment - An appointment which generally means a phone call to your GP

They're currently about as useful as buttons on a sock

 

[marnie]

All in all, how long were you off ?

Finished in Oct 2019 start in 13 days lol Did a bit on the side last summer though.

 

[Moomin]

I don't know it works but SAGE release the Imperial and Warwick predictions so they must be linked in some way.

The hospitalisations on the second set of numbers do look closer to reality but the deaths look high to me. I don't think there will be 200 deaths a day in less than 2 weeks time. I would imagine it will be below 100 at that point?

SAGE will look at all the various modelling , they will amass as much data as possible.

Do you think your issue of SAGE might be down to how some of the media report on them??

I'm yet to see anything confirmed by you that Imperial College and Sage have predicted hundreds of deaths per day by now.