Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Only 743 people in English hospitals, one up from yesterday only and it went down by 20 yesterday.

Despite these Indian scare stories, the number of people in hospital has remained stable and has seen days of decreasing. The North West is the problem, while the rest of your country’s regions has seen decreases. We’re doing alright and are below 100 patients.
That’s great and long may it continue. But let’s see what the situation is on June 14th before we decide to go forward with the next stage of opening.

I’m not aiming this at you but most people were happy with our staggered approach to reopening given the awful strategy before that. For once we have been sensible. But now that there is a chance the government are following the strategy of reevaluating at every stage some people are losing it and calling it fear mongering. Let’s see what the numbers say in a couple of weeks.

I have no faith in this government at all, so I would be much more comfortable with them being overly cautious and getting it wrong than going ahead with the roadmap and getting that wrong.
 
I fully expect the next easing to be delayed - and TBH I wouldn't be that bothered

It's not been that long since we regained a slice of normality, I think it's too soon anyway to go all in and pretend this thing never happened
That was my feeling when California decided not to drop the indoor mask mandate for most places until June 15 (when we are planning to fully reopen) despite the CDC saying they could. Lots of people that still haven't been fully vaccinated, especially some of the younger service workers, and it didn't seem like a big deal to wait for a bit longer until they had more of a chance and we had a bit more of a cushion on overall vaccinated.
 
Hospital figures - 11 deaths were announced today, the exact same total as yesterday and 3 up on last Friday. All 11 were in English hospitals, up 2 on yesterday and up 6 on last week. The 7 day rolling average rises to 7.57

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 10 deaths were announced today, the exact same total as yesterday and up 1 on last Friday. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to 8.29

For the 60 day cut off, 27 deaths were announced today, up 12 on yesterday and down 1 on last Friday. The 7 day rolling average falls slightly to 18.29
 
Sorry my friend, but that doesn't explain why all the other 200+ area's not greatly effected by the Indian variable have continued to fall, or at worse level off since the May opening.

I'm not for one moment underestimating the Indian variant by the way. I agree completely that it needs to be controlled. Other than bricking up the worst infected areas (which tbh, I would happily impose on all those who refuse the vaccine) the only way to control this is by strict trace and isolate and jabbing everybody, which I believe we are doing in the worst effected areas.

Its likely the two variables that we have identified are two of many i would suggest, there wont be one variable to rule them all, i wouldn't say you could attribute all to opening hospitality but we know increased socialization is a factor, you are likely also right in your assertion, i would suggest other factors, as you say poverty, deprivation, education, beliefs, size of out break, where the area was in the roll out, is the majority of the demographic on one dose or two, etc etc. You can go on and on really. Likely many variables. But this thing is primal.

All these variables need to be weighed, because the overall trend is upward, we know this thing spreads like wild fire, we know one dose offers some protection, but not as much as two and we know the nature of exponential growth - many wont have noticed that trend or thought it was significant, but the jump in Weds figures to Thurs are significant, just shy of under 30% - its a low number relatively in comparison to the highest numbers the Uk experienced, but if you understand exponential growth that is alarming, i notice they have increased again today, up 3500 -4100, thats a kinder increase then the day before, but still an increase.

Essentially, the UK has stamped out the fire and needs to stop the embers rekindling and igniting now, before they go to bed.
 
Yes, was paused for a bit as FDA investigated the clotting incidents but determined to be very rare (15 confirmed cases out of ~8 million vaccinated). When they resumed it they did consider putting some restrictions on its use, most of the cases had been in 30 year old women, but risk was considered so low that they just put a warning label on.
It's not in vein of populism of thread but issue may have been identified and said vaccines could be tweaked.

https://inews.co.uk/news/science/va...ists-cause-rare-covid-jab-side-effect-1022111
 


And...


 
Its likely the two variables that we have identified are two of many i would suggest, there wont be one variable to rule them all, i wouldn't say you could attribute all to opening hospitality but we know increased socialization is a factor, you are likely also right in your assertion, i would suggest other factors, as you say poverty, deprivation, education, beliefs, size of out break, where the area was in the roll out, is the majority of the demographic on one dose or two, etc etc. You can go on and on really. Likely many variables. But this thing is primal.

All these variables need to be weighed, because the overall trend is upward, we know this thing spreads like wild fire, we know one dose offers some protection, but not as much as two and we know the nature of exponential growth - many wont have noticed that trend or thought it was significant, but the jump in Weds figures to Thurs are significant, just shy of under 30% - its a low number relatively in comparison to the highest numbers the Uk experienced, but if you understand exponential growth that is alarming, i notice they have increased again today, up 3500 -4100, thats a kinder increase then the day before, but still an increase.

Essentially, the UK has stamped out the fire and needs to stop the embers rekindling and igniting now, before they go to bed.

Perhaps again it should be pointed out that we still don't have a working system to notice there is a fire early enough and contain it before it spreads, then.
 


And...



The outbreak deffo came from a lab shame nothing will ever be done about it
 
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