Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Worth considering that the flattening of the downward curve in cases is occurring at the same time as a vast increase in daily tests performed, so it could be that we're simply picking up more cases that would otherwise have gone unreported.
Indeed, you only have to read my post I just made to see how many tests are being done.

The government said before the day the roadmap was set out, that the R number isn’t much of a concern, it’s deaths, hospitalisations, vaccine rollout/effectiveness and variants of concern.
 
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Good to see this happen so quickly after that certain letter Laura K from the BBC was so eager to mention before any other Juno.

The government dashboard has updated early today. It’s usually at 17:00 on a weekday.

Anyhow, we have today 6,303 new cases from 1,635,141 tests and 95 deaths. This time last week, we had 6,753 new cases and 181 new deaths. 758 over the past seven days, it’s really coming down now. With cases over the past seven days, we are on 39,205.

561,820 active cases according to Worldometer.
That’s an active cases drop of 18,657, a good improvement on yesterday’s drop.
 
Schools going back will see the trend upward again.

There can be no road map date that gets met. It all has to be pushed back at least a month.
As of last Wednesday it was standing between 0.6 and 0.9, next week will be the 3rd week of schools opened which is also the point where they will have enough data to decide if things can progress forward for the next two weeks before the next stage of openings
 
Indeed, you only have to read my post I just made to see how many cases are being done.

The government said before the day the roadmap was set out, that the R number isn’t much of a concern, it’s deaths, hospitalisations, vaccine rollout/effectiveness and variants of concern.
Yep. The number of daily cases is a pretty poor figure to focus on at the best of times as it is almost wholly dependant on how many tests are able to be performed in a single day, but now more than ever it is one of the last figures we should concern ourselves with.
 
As of last Wednesday it was standing between 0.6 and 0.9, next week will be the 3rd week of schools opened which is also the point where they will have enough data to decide if things can progress forward for the next two weeks before the next stage of openings
Those dates were the earliest they could unlock from IF a series of indicators were suggesting substantial progress. But on vaccine roll out we are now in a different situation (the pause has effectively de-railed the road map), and we haven't seen the number admitted to hospital with Covid19 under control yet (the fall has plateaued and as many as there were in October are being admitted).

Under no circumstances can that be the green light to continue apace with the unlock.
 
Those dates were the earliest they could unlock from IF a series of indicators were suggesting substantial progress. But on vaccine roll out we are now in a different situation (the pause has effectively de-railed the road map), and we haven't seen the number admitted to hospital with Covid19 under control yet (the fall has plateaued and as many as there were in October are being admitted).

Under no circumstances can that be the green light to continue apace with the unlock.
Haha. Can't say I'm surprised with your opinion on this. Should we push reopening back until 2024?
 
The press conference just now was reassuring - we're only expecting a reduction in supply based on what we were expecting last week, rather than what we were expecting to meet the roadmap timescales. So essentially, we just won't be able to vaccinate as quickly as hoped last week.
 
Daily COVID cases seem to have stabilised at around 5-6k, which is a bit worrying as it means the R rate must be closer to 1 again.
You need to factor in the number of tests that have been carried out over the last 10 days since the kids went back to school. Something like an extra 700k/800k per day. I saw this morning that 12000 children have so far tested positive. These would almost certainly have been asymptomatic and represent on average around 1300/1400 per day that would not have been captured under previous testing policy. These children, and many who have come into contact with them, are now self isolating, whereas previously they would be spreading the disease unknowingly.

As the weeks progress it is expected that the number of positive tests amongst school children is going to reduce substantially and that will be reflected in the daily infection figures.

So the fact that the number of daily infections seems to have plateaued doesn't mean the R rate is going up. In fact it is still going down and for the UK as a whole is now down to 0.6-0.8. When the next ONS weekly figures are produced tomorrow I'm confident they will show another reduction in community infections. Last week England's was 1 in 270 people.
 
Schools going back will see the trend upward again.

There can be no road map date that gets met. It all has to be pushed back at least a month.
No Dave. There are around 750k tests per day now being carried out in schools. So far there have been 12000 positive tests. which is about 1300 per day. These would most certainly have been asymptomatic, and whereas before they would have been running amok spreading the disease, they are now under lock and key along with people they have come into contact with, thus supressing the disease rather than spreading it.

So whilst the number testing positive is going up, the actual infection rate is still going down.
 
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