Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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The GOT SAGE Committee members: @COYB, @BlueToff, @grandjoeblue etc...

What would you see as being the scenario from this point on? What would a graph look like for the period February 2021 to February 2022 look like?

Here's the death rate for the last 12 months in the UK...


View attachment 119380


....so what would the next 12 months look like?
Find it quite amusing to be mentioned here. What vaccine did we have in the winter of 2020?
 
@davek

You'd expect the cases to start dropping and then stay flat all summer. There'll be a few spikes as things open up but by and large managable.

Come October/November, we might see a rise in hospitalisations, but deaths will stay low. This is probably what to expect for the next two winters, surely.

The vaccines make this thing a lot less deadly. It then becomes about using other things (test and trace, mask wearing etc, perhaps the need to crutail certain events if their is the chance of a larger spike) on top of that, along with variant-specific boosters - which they are already working on, Pfizer reckon they've cracked the SA one already - for those who need them.
So, have I got this right: you're saying the vaccines will stop the high peaks and troughs we've seen so far, but that behavioural change and track and trace will be vital to stop any variants landing us with sudden surges?
 
None.

I'm asking you along with others who see the sunny uplands in sight with the vaccines what the next calendar year holds, in your estimation.
We get back to ‘normal’ by late summer with regards to deaths.
Loads of money spent socially from people getting out and about.
Then an absolute massive load of job losses.
That’s my prediction for the next year.
 
How do you reckon next Feb will look?

I'm afraid I dont think we're out of this by any means. IMO any vaccine impact will be blunted by nowhere near universal take up of it, and the fact that we'll see production and distribution problems with the vaccines. Also, the only real way of supressing the virus is by hunting it down - and I have zero faith this country will have what it takes to either pursue such a hunt or the discipline for what it involves.

Better next year, but a long way off normality. There's a naive belief in this vaccine by some, and a wilful ignorance by others who just want the excuse to get back to the old normal and will use the vaccines as an excuse to cut loose.
 
We get back to ‘normal’ by late summer with regards to deaths.
Loads of money spent socially from people getting out and about.
Then an absolute massive load of job losses.
That’s my prediction for the next year.
I'm trying to understand what people see as the fatality rate over the coming calendar year.
 
Not exaggerating when I say Macron should face charges for what he said regarding the AZ vaccine.

Without doubt he will kill hundreds of people because of it. All because of petty politics.
He repeated the age group results of the trials and made a judgment call for his population based on known evidence.

Would that we had a leader who was dictated to by the science.
 
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