Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[tsubaki]

We have HIGHLY efficient vaccines, what am I missing here?

Well, the fact that the virus is going to change over time - and the more it spreads, the greater the variety of variants (meaning there is more likelyhood that variants that the vaccines aren't as effective against will come around). We need to prevent that - not with lockdowns, but with vigilance and taking effective measures to stop transmission whereever possible (which means supporting the people and businesses we are going to require to isolate for a week or so).

Just going back to normal, thinking "the vaccines got it", and doing nothing to fix the rotten areas of the state identified this year is likely to result in disaster again. We need to protect the country properly, against this and future pandemics.

 

[Jamesblue90]

Well, the fact that the virus is going to change over time - and the more it spreads, the greater the variety of variants (meaning there is more likelyhood that variants that the vaccines aren't as effective against will come around). We need to prevent that - not with lockdowns, but with vigilance and taking effective measures to stop transmission whereever possible (which means supporting the people and businesses we are going to require to isolate for a week or so).

Just going back to normal, thinking "the vaccines got it", and doing nothing to fix the rotten areas of the state identified this year is likely to result in disaster again. We need to protect the country properly, against this and future pandemics.

I would say that we can have full confidence in this current vaccine, the Kent strain is not going anywhere and it's widely considered that its going to be the world dominant strain. Focus on the task at hand, if another strain does approach dominance then that's the target with the next generation of vaccines later in the year. The current vaccines prevent serious illness against all known strains anyway, just possibly not mild illness. We have a perfect opportunity to get ahead of the curve here.

 

[tsubaki]

I would say that we can have full confidence in this current vaccine, the Kent strain is not going anywhere and it's widely considered that its going to be the world dominant strain. Focus on the task at hand, if another strain does approach dominance then that's the target with the next generation of vaccines later in the year. We have a perfect opportunity to get ahead of the curve here.

Well, I like to think that because you've clearly and specifically ignored everything I have said then that means you at least recognise that the problem exists.

All I would point out though (for everyone elses sake) is that we can have a good go at stopping another strain ever approaching dominance, and make sure the next generation of vaccines are likely to be effective. However to do that we need to up our game massively.

 

[Jamesblue90]

Well, I like to think that because you've clearly and specifically ignored everything I have said then that means you at least recognise that the problem exists.

All I would point out though (for everyone elses sake) is that we can have a good go at stopping another strain ever approaching dominance, and make sure the next generation of vaccines are likely to be effective. However to do that we need to up our game massively.

I agree with what you said, being vigilant and keeping some restrictions (restaurant seating/face masks public transport for eg) is a no brainer and a wise move. I agree blunt lockdowns and overly harsh restrictions will simply not be warranted come late spring and summer once vulnerable are vaccinated and providing Kent strain stays dominant.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I would say that we can have full confidence in this current vaccine, the Kent strain is not going anywhere and it's widely considered that its going to be the world dominant strain. Focus on the task at hand, if another strain does approach dominance then that's the target with the next generation of vaccines later in the year. The current vaccines prevent serious illness against all known strains anyway, just possibly not mild illness. We have a perfect opportunity to get ahead of the curve here.

I get that we need to be optimistic and that the vaccine offers some light in what has been a dark period but we need to respect this virus's ability to mutate. The Kent strain is already showing an ability to mirror the features of the South African and Brazilian strains.

UK virus variant has developed concerning new mutation in small number of cases

The UK variant of the coronavirus has developed a new, concerning mutation in a small number of cases, which scientists said makes it similar to the South African and Brazilian variants and could reduce the efficacy of vaccines.

www.reuters.com

 

[Jamesblue90]

I get that we need to be optimistic and that the vaccine offers some light in what has been a dark period but we need to respect this virus's ability to mutate. The Kent strain is already showing an ability to mirror the features of the South African and Brazilian strains.

UK virus variant has developed concerning new mutation in small number of cases

The UK variant of the coronavirus has developed a new, concerning mutation in a small number of cases, which scientists said makes it similar to the South African and Brazilian variants and could reduce the efficacy of vaccines.

www.reuters.com

JVT says SA variant has zero transmission advantage to Kent strain, so whether it's acquired naturally (Kent mutates into it) or is 'imported'- we have to just stay vigilant and decide in Autumn which variant is in the booster. It is a very small number of cases where this mutation has happened. But from Spring (vulnerable vaccinated), we have to let the current vaccines do their job against the Kent strain and get back to much more normality.

 

[Neiler]

I would say that we can have full confidence in this current vaccine, the Kent strain is not going anywhere and it's widely considered that its going to be the world dominant strain. Focus on the task at hand, if another strain does approach dominance then that's the target with the next generation of vaccines later in the year. The current vaccines prevent serious illness against all known strains anyway, just possibly not mild illness. We have a perfect opportunity to get ahead of the curve here.

Not sure the vaccines protect against serious illness mate against the new strains. I think the best they offer is a measure of protection varying on degree of your individual immune response and the strain, but no guarantees. A measure of protection is better then not though.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I agree with what you said, being vigilant and keeping some restrictions (restaurant seating/face masks public transport for eg) is a no brainer and a wise move. I agree blunt lockdowns and overly harsh restrictions will simply not be warranted come late spring and summer once vulnerable are vaccinated and providing Kent strain stays dominant.

Of the five widely recognised strategies Boris chose one of the riskier options in looking to mitigate.

They opted to change tact when the Imperial report projected that this would lead to 250,000 deaths in the UK. We are still below the elimination threshold but are now considering some of its controls (borders etc.)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
These are the philosophical/political choices/gambles with each coming with certain sacrifices. If we had followed an elimination strategy I am confident that the last year would have been a different experience and that we would be in a much better position now for that initial sacrifice of liberty. We didn't and the numbers are worse now than they were during the first wave and we are still in firefighting lockdowns as a result.

 

[davids]

Meanwhile here in Spain...

First came the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, then the Moderna one, now the divisive AstraZeneca is set to be rolled out and even Russia’s Covid vaccine Sputnik V is being considered.
Never a country for the sensible option when a bit of messing about will do lol

 

[davids]

Hope he picks up soon mate, he will be the better for it once the vaccine hangover lifts!

He's okay today thanks,seems the Oxford version was the culprit.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

JVT says SA variant has zero transmission advantage to Kent strain, so whether it's acquired naturally (Kent mutates into it) or is 'imported'- we have to just stay vigilant and decide in Autumn which variant is in the booster. It is a very small number of cases where this mutation has happened. But from Spring (vulnerable vaccinated), we have to let the current vaccines do their job against the Kent strain and get back to much more normality.

As has already been discussed you ignore the perils of escape mutation at your peril.

Our scientists are currently working miracles, which is thankfully aided by the relatively slow 'drift' (mutation timeframe) of the Covid-19 when compared to the flu. Could an escape mutation evade the current vaccines - yes. Would we be able to tweak this, yes, but then you have to consider a virus that to all intents and purposes would be a new virus that the immune system could not recognise.

This would bring the same challenges as when Covid first popped up and as well as the health challenges we would have to create, manufacture and distribute the vaccine. Under these circumstances, we would have a strategic choice as we had last year, and this, in how to manage the virus growth.

This is hypothetical but as with any game or battle you have to consider your opponent's options and possible choices.

 

[Jamesblue90]

As has already been discussed you ignore the perils of escape mutation at your peril.

Our scientists are currently working miracles, which is thankfully aided by the relatively slow 'drift' (mutation timeframe) of the Covid-19 when compared to the flu. Could an escape mutation evade the current vaccines - yes. Would we be able to tweak this, yes, but then you have to consider a virus that to all intents and purposes would be a new virus that the immune system could not recognise.

This would bring the same challenges as when Covid first popped up and as well as the health challenges we would have to create, manufacture and distribute the vaccine. Under these circumstances, we would have a strategic choice as we had last year, and this, in how to manage the virus growth.

This is hypothetical but as with any game or battle you have to consider your opponent's options and possible choices.

Not once have I ignored the risk of escape mutation, I've said we need to be vigilant and focus on the next round of vaccines.
But put it this way, whether Its right or wrong, Its a guarantee that every single country in Europe/North America will roll with this plan of relaxation out of lockdowns by late spring/summer. There will be travel corridors from May/June onwards between the likes of ourselves and Greece/Spain for a start.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Confirmed that 15m target has been met.

15m people vaccinated is a wonderful achievement.

 

[Blueclouds]

Confirmed that 15m target has been met.

15m people vaccinated is a wonderful achievement.

Yeah, we will see how much trust they have in the vaccine when the blueprint for lifting restrictions is released

 

[Chewbacca]

One for Dave