Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[davek]

Here’s some data on first doses and their effect on spread and illness - to me that seems like we won’t be getting out of jail overnight.

Edit.

Sorry, didn't read the graphs.

It may not be a silver bullet, but it does show the impact. However, it clearly shows the second jab is needed to make that impact.

Vaccines are not the single answer though, no matter what some people think. More therapeutics and behavioural change required in conjunction with them.

 

[Brennan]

August 5th 2020

https://www.grandoldteam.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-thread-serious-stuff.109382/page-3262#post-7995207

I dont have to make things up.

*sigh*

Yes, as I have said to you many times, there was no second wave at the start of August as you predicted. Cases were low.

You are being a bare faced liar by suggesting I said there would never be a second wave.

 

[degsy]

...Our general feeling is that yours and US leaders are too scared of any repercussions from the lowest common denominators in your populace. Our leaders are 'shut up, stay home and take your medicine, until this thing blows over’.
Its why we don’t really care about the vaccine. We beat this thing months ago.

Bold, rather sweeping statements there mate.

We did well, but a lot of cards fell in our favour...mainly seeing the total balls up the UK made of not locking down soon enough.
(Nobody mention letting all the potentially infected cruise ship passengers, just walk off the boat)

Also, credit to Scott Morrison, he came across well on TV, laying it out in a no nonsense manner.
Even the State Premiers inadvertently helped by playing a one upmanship game of...

Any state you can lock, I can lock better - I can lock my state down better than you
Gwladys - no you can't!
Anna - yes I can! yes I can, yes I c-aaan. etc, etc.

In effect being - an Island /not being a transport hub (the next stop being NZ - At the end of the line.)

All coupled with us living up to our nickname of The Lucky Country.

No doubt ScoMo (Scott Morrison - Prime Minister) will ride the relative feelgood factor, like a cross between Thatcher after the Falklands and Don Bradman to a 'go early' election win.

 

[Neiler]

Two things:

1/ was the data for the over-60s off one jab?
2/ is the data regarding 60 and under without vaccines (making the comparison)?

Yes first jab mate. They also have data on late and early and late vaccinated cohort i.e. the data shows less incidence of Covid after first and second jab amongst 65's depending on when you got the vaccine, illustrating the time line it takes for immunity to build post vaccine - an important point after getting any dose.

Im presuming its after the first dose, 40% of 0-59's have been vaccinated either 1st or second dose and the study doesn't make the distinction and frames as a first dose comparison - that is how i read it anyway.

Some more data here.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[davek]

People know they’d be a second wave in the winter, but a lot of us realise this is something that is never going to disappear so we can either try and live with it, or be in a perpetual state of lockdown.

When cases were dropping and the weather was warm it was right to open things up and despite what you say, it was under relative control.

Then the winter comes and so does the second and even third wave. Nobody was surprised by this.

We’re rightly back in a lockdown now but once the vulnerable are vaccinated and the warm weather comes we will slowly re-open society and will be able to deal with this virus a whole lot better than we have over the last year.

You’re strategy of staying in lockdown until this thing completely disappears is unrealistic. Learn to live with it as best as we can is what will happen in the coming year with restrictions still in place, but life as we know will slowly start to open up.

It's absurd to state it was the right thing to open up again the way it was. Johnson pulling pints in ale houses; Sunak\s eat out to help out scheme; air corridors to Europe's tourist destinations. It was an attempt by a murderous, profit-driven regime to do the old normal. It was utterly reckless, and everyone knows it...as it will be this summer if the same happens again - regardless of vaccines.

 

[degsy]

Think yourself lucky to be a citizen of a country with competent leadership; where human life is not sacrificed on the altar of profitability.

Only if you define competent as not as bad as the UK. We were in a position to see the UKs coque-ups and even our politicians could see it was not the way to go.
You cry conspiracy, but its usually just plain incompetence...ours are slightly less so, not too much but enough.

 

[BlueToff]

They have done so well, clear, decisive, severe but overall have hadn't had the boom and bust experiences we have had in Europe and subsequent impact on restrictins of liberty to the same extent over a prolonged period of time and maximizing their natural advantages.

Australia had 10 cases yesterday, what a base to be coming out of while rolling out a vaccine programme themselves.

I fully agree Neiler. My point was that even with all that, it's still not 'normality' - it's a form of normality and it's great. But, it's not normal for people to have to quarantine for 2 weeks, or for snap lockdowns for massive regions because of 13 cases (as seen in Victoria).

This is not at all meant as a slight on their efforts. They have done great. They have been helped by location to an extent (more than pop density I'd say) - they aren't a travel and trade hub - but nevertheless their decisions have been swift and had the desired effect.

However, end goal is still herd immunity, so it is still the vaccine, combined with track and trace. I wonder if they'll keep the quarantine going for the rest of the year, but perhaps lower it - i.e. if people only have to quarantine for, say, 5 days, rather than 14

 

[BlueToff]

It's absurd to state it was the right thing to open up again the way it was. Johnson pulling pints in ale houses; Sunak\s eat out to help out scheme; air corridors to Europe's tourist destinations. It was an attempt by a murderous, profit-driven regime to do the old normal. It was utterly reckless, and everyone knows it...as it will be this summer if the same happens again - regardless of vaccines.

It had no impact on the rates at the time though, and you know that

 

[Tubey]

It had no impact on the rates at the time though, and you know that

Eat Out to Help Out was blatantly irresponsible though. It was an attempt to basically encourage a return to normal ahead of an inevitable second wave when no treatments or vaccines were available.

It was too optimistic.

 

[Charro]

It's absurd to state it was the right thing to open up again the way it was. Johnson pulling pints in ale houses; Sunak\s eat out to help out scheme; air corridors to Europe's tourist destinations. It was an attempt by a murderous, profit-driven regime to do the old normal. It was utterly reckless, and everyone knows it...as it will be this summer if the same happens again - regardless of vaccines.

It wasn’t. Rates stayed under control.

It was absurd to open up schools and universities Inparticular.

It was also absurd to introduce the tier system instead of going into a full country lockdown.

It’s also absurd to suggest we should have another year of complete lockdown but here we are. We need to learn to live with this virus and that’s how we’ll proceed going forward.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

'A very dangerous epoch': historians try to make sense of Covid

Experts say it is not just the pandemic that makes these feel like unusually significant times

www.theguardian.com

 

[BlueToff]

Eat Out to Help Out was blatantly irresponsible though. It was an attempt to basically encourage a return to normal ahead of an inevitable second wave when no treatments or vaccines were available.

It was too optimistic.

I agree with that, but the rates stayed flat until schools and unis went back - coinciding with autumn.

I can see why they tried it, but yes, probably not the best move.

The rules they had in place (wearing masks, table service etc) surely will have helped. Issue will have been the numbers going, I assume.

 

[davek]

Yes first jab mate. They also have data on late and early and late vaccinated cohort i.e. the data shows less incidence of Covid after first and second jab amongst 65's depending on when you got the vaccine, illustrating the time line it takes for immunity to build post vaccine - an important point after getting any dose.

Im presuming its after the first dose, 40% of 0-59's have been vaccinated either 1st or second dose and the study doesn't make the distinction and frames as a first dose comparison - that is how i read it anyway.

Some more data here.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Interesting graphs you can put together yourself there. I just graphed a series of European and other nations in south east Asia. When you look at this you can see what an utter basket case the UK is and why all thoughts of going back to a summer 2020 scenario would be catastrophic (though there's many on here who want to do that, incredibly).

 

[davek]

Only if you define competent as not as bad as the UK. We were in a position to see the UKs coque-ups and even our politicians could see it was not the way to go.
You cry conspiracy, but its usually just plain incompetence...ours are slightly less so, not too much but enough.

I dont accpet that. The class of loonies in charge of government now are ideologues. They see Covid19 as being as much an opportunity as a curse.

 

[Tubey]

I agree with that, but the rates stayed flat until schools and unis went back - coinciding with autumn.

I can see why they tried it, but yes, probably not the best move.

The rules they had in place (wearing masks, table service etc) surely will have helped. Issue will have been the numbers going, I assume.

They just didn't know what they were doing, simple as that. It was an ill-advised attempt to balance normality with a pandemic.

I get it, but in the absence of anything to treat this thing and the only remedy being a national lockdown if/when it came it back, it was a bonkers call - one of ideology from a Tory government wanting to get the economy going.

The damage caused by it wasn't in terms of infections (although I actually think it contributed - remember, infections grow exponentially, so initial spread can be low level at first then rocket up later), but the damage to their own political independence from scientists - they're now terrified to act without data to back up their decisions. Which is overall a good thing, but also a bad thing as it may mean they unnecessarily delay opening up, because scientists will always advise out of an abundance of caution.