Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[BlueToff]

yes, pete

in fact the largest one-day redundancy of that decade took place less than ten miles from where I grew up; that town is still suffering the effects of it

More people in hospitality have lost their jobs than this than miners in the 80s, so let that sink in too

And the person on here suggesting we ‘mothball’ an entire industry - I’m pretty sure he isn’t a Tory

 

[tsubaki]

Test and trace can only work if there's a manageable number of cases. While there are still thousands of cases there's no chance of it working.

That is perversely circular logic - you can't have a manageable number of cases without test and trace; you can only oscillate between lockdown and not locked down.

Establishing a proper, effective and rapid test and trace system now - rapid in the sense of someone from it coming to your house within an hour, and identifies where you've been when you might have been infectious in the same sort of time, is the way in which we control this and prevent further lockdowns.

If we'd used the time from March onwards to build that, we wouldn't have had a second lockdown. Of course its going to be expensive, and going to require many tens of thousands of people to be dedicated to doing it, but if we do not get that in place (and now) we as a country are much more at risk of a third lockdown than we should be.

 

[tsubaki]

More people in hospitality have lost their jobs than this than miners in the 80s, so let that sink in too

And the person on here suggesting we ‘mothball’ an entire industry - I’m pretty sure he isn’t a Tory

was he suggesting putting them all on the dole?

edit: also thats a pretty appalling distinction to draw there - no-one claimed the job losses in the 80s were just "miners", nor is any town in the UK (at least as far as I am aware) as dependent on the hospitality industry as some 80s towns were on docks, steelworks or shipyards

 

[BlueToff]

was he suggesting putting them all on the dole?

He suggested ‘mothballing’ the
industry, because it’s just people who ‘get pissed and eat crap’ (ignoring all of the business that also fuel said industry - local suppliers etc).

And then insisting that it’s all gone and dead, and that people should come up with another way of doing it?

I believe Dave lives in Liverpool - one of the best cities in the UK for ‘cafe culture’. Literally thousands of jobs in each city and town created by these places, thousands of independent businesses.

‘Mothballed’

 

[davek]

COVID-19: Some restrictions should last until all adults have been vaccinated, senior health official says

The PHE official admits it's "difficult to say" if restrictions this summer will be tougher than they were last year.

news.sky.com

The confusion is people listening to scientists like this covering their own arse with statements and then thinking the end isn't in sight.

It is though.

Politically, what she is saying there isn't tenable. By May, 98% of deaths will be taken out of the equation. After that, even if transmission is high (which I don't think it actually will be), the death rate/ICU capacity won't reflect it.

Some restrictions will continue post-May, but they'll be in the form of guidance rather than lockdown, with some things like major events being restricted. But when we hit July/August, we're back to normal with Track & Trace picking up variants (it'll be routine to test for any cold like symptoms for years now) and booster shots every six to twelve months. Convinced of it.

If we're not, I honestly think you'll be looking at riots. Justifiable riots too.

She is stating common sense and rational things about how cautious we have to be givcen the mass death toll in this country from Covid19. Might I remoind you that almost 115,000 people have perished so far. The end is NOT in sight.

 

[davek]

To clarify, do you think pubs and restaurants should be closed permanently??

For the foreseeable.

 

[davek]

You almost make it sound like a positive that thousands of small businesses are failing. I bet those 640,000 people who are probably jobless and struggling to pay their bills are happy to see the sector 'redefine' itself. Aren't you a socialist? Very confusing.

I'm a human. I dont like hundred's of my fellow species dying as a result of some Tory scum regime failing to lockdown early or hard enough or re-opening the economy prematurely when the fight against a killer virus is ongoing.

 

[tsubaki]

He suggested ‘mothballing’ the
industry, because it’s just people who ‘get pissed and eat crap’ (ignoring all of the business that also fuel said industry - local suppliers etc).

And then insisting that it’s all gone and dead, and that people should come up with another way of doing it?

I believe Dave lives in Liverpool - one of the best cities in the UK for ‘cafe culture’. Literally thousands of jobs in each city and town created by these places, thousands of independent businesses.

‘Mothballed’

What he actually said was:

That can all be done with a will to build up a fit for purpose track and trace system (ie employing experts rather than Tory Party donors). The hospitality sector needs mothballing though. There's no safe possibility of reopening indoor drink and food establishments. They are a menace. Not that I expect them to be kept closed: these Tories have donors in the food and drink industry and they'll reopen them by end of spring.

Now this is a typical @davek post in that he's actually said there is that there is no safe possibility of reopening indoor drink and food establishments; takeaways or premises that can serve outside (like cafes) weren't actually mentioned (though he didn't draw that distinction). He has said the entire industry should be mothballed, but then again the entire industry doesn't consist of indoor drink and food establishments.

I don't agree with it, but without a proper system to detect and contain outbreaks he is right - these premises might not be safe; nowhere where large numbers of people congregate in an area where this virus could spread are.

Or to put it another way, if the government tells firms that their business model poses too much of a risk and they cannot therefore trade, should the government compensate that business for the lost trade?

 

[peteblue]

I'm a human. I dont like hundred's of my fellow species dying as a result of some Tory scum regime failing to lockdown early or hard enough or re-opening the economy prematurely when the fight against a killer virus is ongoing.

I think we are all human Dave. I too don’t like my fellow humans dying as a result of some Chinese scientist developing a Covid virus and accidentally releasing it into the world, then blaming every other poor sod on the planet for being responsible.......

 

[Tubey]

She is stating common sense and rational things about how cautious we have to be givcen the mass death toll in this country from Covid19. Might I remoind you that almost 115,000 people have perished so far. The end is NOT in sight.

I'm well aware - I'm also aware that was before vaccination started in earnest which will stop the vast majority of deaths and serious hospitalisation and approx. 2/3rds of transmission. I'm also aware that the case rate is falling around 25% week on week right now. I'm also aware that between the two peaks of this pandemic we've seen a drop off period of several months naturally, even not accounting for vaccinations.

All of this suggests the end is near for lockdowns.

And nope, she's arse covering. She's saying what I'd expect her to say, and any epidemiologist - because their aim is to provide worst case scenarios to address and the best case scenario to address them.

So, naturally, an epidemiologist will - correctly - tell you that the way to stop colds/flu spreading is to stop people mixing, so we should, in theory, lockdown until the end of time.

The political reality, clearly, makes that a nonsense in practice.

That's why the end is near with this. My guess - 8 March schools, 1 April bars/restaurants, 1 May practical normality barring large indoor events, July/August complete normality with guidance in place instead of restrictions.

 

[tsubaki]

I don't think so. Because the vaccines currently prevent severe illness, I can see a situation where this is a flu vaccine type booster shot once a year covering variants for reasons of efficacy so as to stop transmission, solely because high transmission increases the chance of a dangerous strain emerging.

But I can't see a situation where a lockdown would be justifiable at all if this isn't killing or even hospitalising people. We don't do it with flu, there's no reason to do it with COVID unless it's much worse than flu, which it has been but by no means will certainly be so in the near future.

People forget - COVID doesn't want to kill people; no virus does. It wants to spread and having a host survive means more chances to transmit. COVID mutations will get less severe over time, not more. We really do have to learn to live with it with the weapons we have to curtail the lethality of it.

This is to argue from the point of absurdity, though. Future variants of this virus have to be contained before they cause us to get to the point of lockdown, especially a national lockdown. To do that, we need a means of containing it. That is what I am saying we need to have, a system that can identify outbreaks, contain them and give the folk developing future vaccines an idea of what the virus is developing into.

Of course that system can then be used against the next pandemic that might come along, or (heaven forbid) a hostile state who has noticed that this is actually a much safer way of weakening the West than anything involving bombs.

If we don't have that, then we can't contain it; making relevant and effective boosters is also much more difficult. It also leaves a massive gaping hole in our national defence.

Finally I'd have hoped this "well, we cope with the flu" nonsense would have been killed off by this past year, but it seems not. Flu kills more than ten thousand people a year in this country, and theres a good chance (based on other countries' performance) that at least half of them might be preventable.

 

[Neiler]

I don't think so. Because the vaccines currently prevent severe illness, I can see a situation where this is a flu vaccine type booster shot once a year covering variants for reasons of efficacy so as to stop transmission, solely because high transmission increases the chance of a dangerous strain emerging.

But I can't see a situation where a lockdown would be justifiable at all if this isn't killing or even hospitalising people. We don't do it with flu, there's no reason to do it with COVID unless it's much worse than flu, which it has been but by no means will certainly be so in the near future.

People forget - COVID doesn't want to kill people; no virus does. It wants to spread and having a host survive means more chances to transmit. COVID mutations will get less severe over time, not more. We really do have to learn to live with it with the weapons we have to curtail the lethality of it.

Not sure all of that is entirely true, the virus, any virus ultimately doesn’t want to kill us but that can be a an unfortunate side effect of a new virus entering a virgin species. There have been thousands of mutations so far, but worryingly the U.K. and S.A. Variant has shown the virus can evolve quickly and maliciously rather then more placid, that’s a concern and to our detriment to stay alive.

We have seen a changes in the amino acid of both variants and the spike protein, which means a greater viral load, higher transmissibility and risk as the virus evolves to replicate better and infect more hosts. Essentially things that were at a low risk 6 months ago can now be moderate to high risk with the new variants. Essentially they are super Covid particularly the SA strain. The U.K. variant has now become the most dominant variant in Western Europe, in a very short space time, its was a huge contributor to the third wave.

Governments don’t want to panic the population but if the SA variant becomes dominant, we’re down a snake rather then up a vaccine ladder. Most of Europe is after closing their borders, this is new very new and I guarantee this is in reaction to fear of his quickly the U.K. variant became dominant in Europe and governments are terrified of the SA variant. We are evolving with our vaccines, Covid is evolving with variants, the U.K. and SA varients are worrying as it shows a malicious evolution rather then a weaker one and a rapid mutation, it’s a wait and see which ultimately prevails but the war with the virus has a few more twists and turns.

As for lock downs if the SA varient get a hold in a country, frequent lock downs won’t be ruled out.

 

[Tubey]

This is to argue from the point of absurdity, though. Future variants of this virus have to be contained before they cause us to get to the point of lockdown, especially a national lockdown. To do that, we need a means of containing it. That is what I am saying we need to have, a system that can identify outbreaks, contain them and give the folk developing future vaccines an idea of what the virus is developing into.

Of course that system can then be used against the next pandemic that might come along, or (heaven forbid) a hostile state who has noticed that this is actually a much safer way of weakening the West than anything involving bombs.

If we don't have that, then we can't contain it; making relevant and effective boosters is also much more difficult. It also leaves a massive gaping hole in our national defence.

Finally I'd have hoped this "well, we cope with the flu" nonsense would have been killed off by this past year, but it seems not. Flu kills more than ten thousand people a year in this country, and theres a good chance (based on other countries' performance) that at least half of them might be preventable.

I think that's adding 1+1 and getting 3.

I've said T&T will persist for years, but it won't be with the aim of preventing a lockdown; it'll be with the aim of detecting dangerous mutations for a booster shot, because the immunogenic response of a vaccine prevents serious illness and, bar a complete change in how the virus works (not the spike protein, I mean in terms of how it actually works inside the human body) and an unprecedented mutation to make it more lethal, that immune response from the vaccine will remain consistent enough to provide a baseline prevention of illness.

No, for me, the reason we actually need T&T and a focus on viral detection in the future is to stop the next pandemic, not necessarily the next COVID strain.

Also, the last bit for me shows the weakness in your argument - we could very well prevent flu killing a few thousand people a year; but the question is whether we want to, given the trade off in civil liberties that would involve. I'd say, clearly, no, we don't. If general hygiene measures like hand sanitisers become more commonplace, good, but we shouldn't be aiming to prevent every death from COVID/flu as the trade off is unviable - notably because by having extreme measures in place you create more death through mental health pressures, people skipping medical appointments for other matters and so on.

People can't just exist; they need to be able to live. It's a balancing act. If 5,000 people die a preventable death in the UK per year from COVID/flu in future years, but it means people live their lives, so be it. It sounds cold to say, but that's just the reality of it.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Hitler was a National Socialist

Joe Stalin was also a socialist......

Great bunch of lads

 

[davek]

Be careful what you wish for. If they closed pubs forever, I could turn our pub into a house, put another six houses in the car park and grounds and turn over a £2M profit. But then we wouldn’t have a pub in the village, nowhere to meet, socialise, raise funds for the school or the kids, nowhere to enjoy Halloween or Bonfire Night, no BBQ’s for the families and no Christmas Carols...but then again £2M, you may be onto something here Dave......

I dont wish for it.