Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Exactly. The more I think about it, the more I have the belief that perhaps they're banking on the numbers from one dose wide-spread to relieve the pressure.

Although Johnson and Co. won't talk about lifting restrictions, I suspect they're eyeing a return as soon as possible to alleviate the financial and political pressure.

Perhaps a mass numbers of partial vaccines may be their avenue of doing - more people with partial resistance - rather than the slower, meticulous approach.

I wonder how any shortages of vaccines would impact on this.
That's pretty much what the CMO said the other day.

I doubt we'll be out of lockdown before mid-March (and then it'll be tiers) but they've stressed a few times that they want more people to have some form of protection. That is, unarguably, better for suppressing a virus than less people having more protection. For the vast majority of people, the vaccine is there merely to give your immune system a boost.

The issue is obviously the efficacy of the vaccines after the longer spacing - that's where the risk comes in. The logic behind the risk is clear, though.

But I keep saying, if you've got some evidence to suggest 12 weeks is better than 3 weeks with one of the vaccines, then why wouldn't you do that?

If Pfizer had tested, for example, 6 weeks rather than 3 weeks, then there'd had been no issue with this because we'd have never known that 3 weeks was even an option, would we, as much as certain people in here like to act like they're experts on everything from socialism through the ages to the history of vaccinations.

This isn't me having a go at Pfizer. Like I've said, if they've not tested longer spacing with that vaccine then the government shouldn't be taking a risk in increasing the time between doses. But Oxford-AZ did test longer spacing, and did get positive results. Since the vast majority of the country will be getting that jab, then the risk will hopefully be drastically reduced.

As Whitty also stressed, the aim of the vaccine is to prevent death, serious illness and, as the third most important thing, infection.

Infection is the first thing to go in terms of the domino effect if the virus starts to find a way past the vaccine by different strains etc, but that still doesn't mean the vaccine won't be doing its job, because it'll be helping people fight the thing off when/if they have it, without the need for them to be in bed for 2 weeks or God forbid end up in hospital.
 
Well, depends on the vaccine. I keep saying it but Pfizer one - they haven't tested so by all means I fully agree that they should go with the advice.

The Oxford AZ vaccine - Dave can argue the sample size was small, but the entire sample size for the vaccine was small. Of the people tested, there was better efficacy over a longer period of time so it is a calculated risk, but one with evidence to support it.

Yeah, I’m talking specifically about the Pfizer one here. That’s where the calculated risk is coming in, as they’re using generalised vaccination evidence (i.e. from other vaccines) as the basis for the delay in second jab, in order to get more people some level of immunity.

Me personally, I’d have followed Pfizer guidance on timing, but it’s a risk that could well pay off. But, as I said, we’re guinea pigs here, and the Uk stands alone in their approach.
 
It’s a calculated risk. Trading off getting the most number of people their first shot, against the unknown, untested efficacy of a delayed second shot.

We don’t know if it will be a good thing yet, as the UK is basically taking part in a nationwide live trial. I really hope the approach pays off, but make no mistake, the UK approach is radical and risky.
One thing that is apparent is that the current cabinet has no concerns with gambling when making decisions.
 
Not sure they have too much choice
More lockdown Vs a not fully tested vaccine that will probably be ok

There is a choice.

To roll out a vaccine, contrary to the producers guidance, in an untested manner, is very much a choice.

It’s a risk (which I think and hope will pay off) taken by a government trying to fix the numerous errors it’s made in its handling.
 
Yeah, I’m talking specifically about the Pfizer one here. That’s where the calculated risk is coming in, as they’re using generalised vaccination evidence (i.e. from other vaccines) as the basis for the delay in second jab, in order to get more people some level of immunity.

Me personally, I’d have followed Pfizer guidance on timing, but it’s a risk that could well pay off. But, as I said, we’re guinea pigs here, and the Uk stands alone in their approach.
Fair enough then, we're definitely on the same page, and I agree with you. Hopefully it pays off but I think a cautious approach with Pfizer would have been best. Then again, because of all the things that have gone wrong (yes, the government's fault before others accuse me of being an apologist) we're having to take even more drastic action.

I believe Denmark have chosen to do a 6 week spacing with the Pfizer vaccine too (obviously kind of a half-way house, maybe that would be the better approach). I know Germany and Ireland were considering it but don't know any more than that.
 
This isn't me having a go at Pfizer. Like I've said, if they've not tested longer spacing with that vaccine then the government shouldn't be taking a risk in increasing the time between doses. But Oxford-AZ did test longer spacing, and did get positive results. Since the vast majority of the country will be getting that jab, then the risk will hopefully be drastically reduced.
In an ideal world, they'd vaccinate using the Oxford/AZ with the spacing required for this to be most effective and Pfizer within its own individual time-frame.

But that would bring about a world of other issues, which I suspect they don't want to deal with: who gets which vaccine and the rationale behind the choice.

So, they've gone down the approach of taking the vaccine with the longest spacing and universally applied it; it may work, but it is a risk nevertheless.

We've simply got to hope that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine, with the wider second inoculation, isn't too low that it impacts on infection/death rates.

Understandably, they want more people covered and out of restrictions sooner, but the point is there is risk that this decision may not bring this about.

What level of risk is still unknown. Hopefully, all being well, it isn't an issue at all.
 
Fair enough then, we're definitely on the same page, and I agree with you. Hopefully it pays off but I think a cautious approach with Pfizer would have been best. Then again, because of all the things that have gone wrong (yes, the government's fault before others accuse me of being an apologist) we're having to take even more drastic action.

I believe Denmark have chosen to do a 6 week spacing with the Pfizer vaccine too (obviously kind of a half-way house, maybe that would be the better approach). I know Germany and Ireland were considering it but don't know any more than that.

Yeah. I think it could well pay off. But we’ll only know in 6 months time (ish), when enough people have had the 12 week spaced 2nd dose and we find out whether that gets people the 95% immunity, or if it’s less than that, and if that still does the trick.
 
There is a choice.

To roll out a vaccine, contrary to the producers guidance, in an untested manner, is very much a choice.

It’s a risk (which I think and hope will pay off) taken by a government trying to fix the numerous errors it’s made in its handling.
So there is a sort of choice - Hobsons
Definition; An apparently free choice when there is No real alternative

Anyway we're quibbling over semantics really
 
Yeah. I think it could well pay off. But we’ll only know in 6 months time (ish), when enough people have had the 12 week spaced 2nd dose and we find out whether that gets people the 95% immunity, or if it’s less than that, and if that still does the trick.

Its unlikely it will be ever known, the vast majority of the population will be vaccinated with AZ as its the one the UK have bought the most of, so when it comes to mass roll out that will be it. The spacing of AZ recommended at 12 weeks. Yet if people get sick or worse due to the impact of the UK programme of Pfizer or Moderna. I'm not sure how that will ever be known.

You will get the no of cases and mortailies, but you wont get a break down of how many received the first Pfizer or Moderna jab. Might be some anecdotal reports alright.
 
Fair enough then, we're definitely on the same page, and I agree with you. Hopefully it pays off but I think a cautious approach with Pfizer would have been best. Then again, because of all the things that have gone wrong (yes, the government's fault before others accuse me of being an apologist) we're having to take even more drastic action.

I believe Denmark have chosen to do a 6 week spacing with the Pfizer vaccine too (obviously kind of a half-way house, maybe that would be the better approach). I know Germany and Ireland were considering it but don't know any more than that.
Germany decided not to delay the second jab in the end
 
Could be more positive news, fingers crossed.


Absolutely superb that and like you say, fingers crossed it proves an effective treatment.

Amazing the work some people have done and the amazing scientists who can create potential treatments such as this.
 
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