Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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roydo said:
Haha!

I am still trying to work out why in Wales, you can go in a supermarket and buy ale, wine, and ciggies, but socks are illegal.

Christ, you can even but an essential pumpkin for halloween I guess!
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My missus has told me that the women's sanitary stuff is also being classed as non-essential. Only a bloke could have come up with that one, and an unmarried one at that. lol
 
Catfish Blues said:
Needs to be taken in context and ignore the headline though.

The headline shouts "Antibodies fade quickly, we're all doomed", but the reality is that the research suggests that 75% of people still have antibodies three months after they previously had antibodies.

The first set of tests were carried out in June and then repeated, but on different people in September. Given the timing of the first set of tests, you'd imagine most of the people with antibodies were infected in March / April, so those with antibodies in September likely had them roughly six months after initial infection.

Flu vaccination programmes happen every twelve months. If a COVID vaccine had to be topped up every twelve months, or even every six months, that still gives us a way of dealing with the virus. Add in the possibilities of T-Cell immunity and low, undetected levels of antibodies being present which still provide some immunity, and it's nowhere near as bad as the headline might suggest.
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Neither is there any explanation of how 43 million people worldwide have have had Covid19 and yet there's only been 6 confirmed reinfections.
 
YoboCopter said:
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Bruce Wayne said:
What is it about this unemployed pathologist that makes you want to believe her over those who are gainfully employed in this line of work?
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From her blog at https://logicinthetimeofcovid.com/blog/ , presumably written at least a month ago. I've put in italics what I'd like to emphasise.

Predictions for this winter

Coronaviruses are seasonal and that season begins in December running through to May or June. Between now and then we will see occasional small outbreaks like Leicester and Oldham but the numbers (largely false positives) will remain stable elsewhere. This means the R value will remain at 1. As the number of people being tested continues to increase to reach the 250,000 a day target, the number of cases will increase in line with this. This will cause a slight increase in the R value. As the numbers attending hospital returns to normal, there will be a rise in false positive deaths causing unwarranted concern. However, the numbers will not breach 1.7% of admissions. The R value will suddenly pick up in December simply because this is a seasonal infection and real cases will start to appear. Admissions will increase in December and before Christmas there will be speculation as to why the death rate from COVID has rocketed back up to somewhere near 4% or higher. An early family Christmas in November might be worth planning ahead for.
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I actually agree with a lot she says about false positives in the rest of that piece, it's not massively different to what @Kenshin and I were discussing the other day. But her prediction above, like lots of predictions made by scientists on COVID was wrong, very wrong.

Like everyone else, scientists and medics aren't desperately happy about being wrong, and will quite often reinterpret their predictions to try and match reality, because that's easier to cope with rather than admitting you're wrong ( see also peoples thoughts on DCL / Bambi or Michael Keane ).

Her recent tweets, and the arguments she's now putting forward, may turn out to be true, but the smart money is on assuming she's now trying to defend her initial position when she should really just admit she was wrong.
 
davek said:
Neither is there any explanation of how 43 million people worldwide have have had Covid19 and yet there's only been 6 confirmed reinfections.
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To be fair, I know a local NHS worker who has had COVID twice, so, though those cases are very unusual, there'll be far more than six.

She had a fairly mild COVID infection in the first wave, confirmed by a swab test.
A few weeks ago she had a more aggressive COVID infection, again confirmed by a swab test.

Inbetween she's had a negative antibody test. Her swab tests havn't been reanalysed to check to see if the infections were different enough to totally rule out a resurgent infection, so she wouldn't get written up in a journal.

It's possible one of her swab tests was a false positive and one of her infections was non-COVID, but the most likely scenario is she was infected twice. Her negative antibody tests casts a bit of doubt on all this, but doesn't really alter that most likely scenario.
 


There is evidence that COVID-19 may cause long term health changes past acute symptoms, termed ‘long COVID’. Our analyses of detailed cognitive assessment and questionnaire data from tens thousands of datasets, collected in collaboration with BBC2 Horizon, align with the view that there are chronic cognitive consequences of having COVID-19. Individuals who recovered from suspected or confirmed COVID-19 perform worse on cognitive tests in multiple domains than would be expected given their detailed age and demographic profiles. This deficit scales with symptom severity and is evident amongst those without hospital treatment. These results should act as a clarion call for more detailed research investigating the basis of cognitive deficits in people who have survived SARS-COV-2 infection.
 
Papers are scare mongering again.

Anyone who's just read up on what's going on knows the antibodies only last a few months.

The Oxford vaccine produces both a T-cell and antibody response in people of all ages.

The real question is how long does the T-cell immunity last, which no one knows for sure yet.

The T-cell immunity from the 4 types of regular coronaviruses only last for months but the T-cell immunity from Sars-Cov1 are still present in people, which means they have lasted 17 years. Sars-Cov2 is more similar to Sars-Cov1 than the regular sorts of corona virus so if we're lucky it'll last years.

Truth is no one knows 100% and the papers are being irresponsible in their reporting for the sake of selling papers. Pretty disgusting really.

As @davek pointed out. If the immunity lasts only a matter of months then we'll start hearing of thousands of cases of reinfection in the next few months. A handful of unpeer reviewed individual cases does not prove the case for only short term immunity.
 
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