But why would we see a huge spike especially early on? Like I said after 2 and a bit months of lockdown things won't immediately go from a dwindling number of cases to a mass problem as in that crowd there will only be a handful of infected people at most and at least back then there were still less interactions once they got back home.
This rings true when you look at the probable dates when the virus first came into Europe, Italy believe they had it before Christmas. It's that tipping point when enough people are infected does it then spiral out of control very quickly, the question is can they catch this before you get the on rush of hospitalisations which is by then already a couple of weeks too late.
I would like nothing more to be proven wrong and the virus just disappears but unfortunately it's still around, our starting point is worse than March and too many overly confident people and lack of controls does not equate to a happy ending.
l,
Mate, even after the next phase of unlocking restrictions next weekend, the country is still miles away from the normality we experienced before lockdown. Social distancing will still be part and parcel of daily life, even if a small number disregard the guidelines like we've seen at beaches, demonstrations, street parties and last nights football celebrations. Where social distancing can't be adhered to many are wearing face masks, whether voluntarily or compulsory. Before lockdown there were over a million people attending weekly mass gatherings at sporting events and hundreds of thousands more going to concerts, theatres and the cinema.. Probably millions went to night clubs, played contact sports, attended gyms, went to social receptions such as weddings, christenings, parties and funerals
Add to this that we have contact tracing in place and the testing ability that is a thousand times more efficient and available from when this first started. There may be localised outbreaks that can be controlled, but it is highly unlikely that this is going to take hold in quite the same way as it did before lockdown. Even if it does we are better placed to deal with it now, the medical people know more about it so can treat it better, the supply of PPE is now much better, we have in place more ICUs, breathing apparatus and ventilators plus we have the extra beds from the temporary hospitals. And hopefully they have learned lessons from what happened in the care homes.
The majority of people in this country are not badly affected by the virus and, for the large part, these are the people that are seriously at risk financially from a continuation in the lockdown. We need to protect their jobs which is why we are seeing a phased opening up. But it is nothing like what it was before shutdown, not at this stage anyway.