Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Catfish Blues]

The latest ONS surveillance report came out yesterday.

Because the number of positive cases the report is based on is low, it's hard to read too much into it, but it does seem that the drop in infection rates has levelled off.



It's possible the overall trend is down. But for that to be the case, the best estimate number for the two weeks starting 25th May would have had to be an underestimate and the equivalent number for the two weeks starting 8th June be an overestimate.

It will hopefully be clearer one way or the other when we see next weeks report.

But, given we're opening up against a backdrop of what looks like a fairly static infection rate, it seems likely that, unless test, trace and isolate is effective, we'll end up with a general tick up of cases across the country.

 

[mill]

Pubs are not ‘open’. Pubs, like restaurants are allowed ‘off sales’, which is what many have done to stay in business.....

I’m not having a go at anyone by the way.

That makes complete sense.

I was just trying to understand as people have been telling me they’ve been going to pubs and obviously I was aware of 4th July.

I just wasn’t sure what was going on. As far as I was aware the pub on my street has been closed.

Makes sense to be honest. Whatever they can do to stay afloat. It’s going to be a tough few month either way.

 

[COYBL25]

I’m not having a go at anyone by the way.

That makes complete sense.

I was just trying to understand as people have been telling me they’ve been going to pubs and obviously I was aware of 4th July.

I just wasn’t sure what was going on. As far as I was aware the pub on my street has been closed.

Makes sense to be honest. Whatever they can do to stay afloat. It’s going to be a tough few month either way.

There`s four restaurants by me who`ve been serving "takeaway " ale for a few weeks now mate.

All of them have been selling takeaway food too, but they`re allowed to sell ale separate from the food - which has been abused over the past couple of weekends.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

There`s four restaurants by me who`ve been serving "takeaway " ale for a few weeks now mate.

All of them have been selling takeaway food too, but they`re allowed to sell ale separate from the food - which has been abused over the past couple of weekends.

Do I want a pint of murdering [Poor language removed] or pastie eating serf?

 

[davek]

The latest ONS surveillance report came out yesterday.

Because the number of positive cases the report is based on is low, it's hard to read too much into it, but it does seem that the drop in infection rates has levelled off.

View attachment 92104

It's possible the overall trend is down. But for that to be the case, the best estimate number for the two weeks starting 25th May would have had to be an underestimate and the equivalent number for the two weeks starting 8th June be an overestimate.

It will hopefully be clearer one way or the other when we see next weeks report.

But, given we're opening up against a backdrop of what looks like a fairly static infection rate, it seems likely that, unless test, trace and isolate is effective, we'll end up with a general tick up of cases across the country.

This government - unlike elsewhere in Europe which have got a firm grip of the infection - has settled on this as an acceptable level to relaunch the economy / open up society: 1,200 new cases of Covid19 per day and roughly just under 200 lives taken per day.

It is obscene. A shameful unwillingness to value human life, sacrificed for commercial interests.

 

[witchdoc187]

People have been telling me that loads of the pubs round theirs (various parts of london) have been open. I’ve not really ventured far from my house recently and so haven’t noticed round here.

just unsure how. How do a pub do takeaway?

They've been serving cocktails and pints in plastic glasses in a few pubs round East London for a while now. People just stand outside in the street or sit on the pavement

 

[mill]

There`s four restaurants by me who`ve been serving "takeaway " ale for a few weeks now mate.

All of them have been selling takeaway food too, but they`re allowed to sell ale separate from the food - which has been abused over the past couple of weekends.

Yeah I know restaurants have. I know you can get it all on Deliveroo etc

I’d just got the impression that this was less get booze and go somewhere else and more buy booze and drink on the streets outside the pub kinda thing.

 

[The binman chronicles]

The UK is currently anticipating 4 different scenarios:

• Virus naturally leaves.
• R falls below 1 for summer and Autumn then increases again in Winter – within manageable surge levels (most likely scenario)
• Virus goes around the globe and returns (quite a real risk)
• Control of the virus is lost as lockdown is eased (most dangerous scenario and would require local lockdowns)

There is no guarantee of a second wave.

Looks pretty inevitable to me! After months of lockdown the numbers who have/had this will be pretty small, so when we had these BLM protests a few weeks back in that large crowd you are probably talking a couple at most per thousand. Then those small number of newly infected people from that event will go off and infect a couple of others each as it seems social distancing is pretty much being ignored at this stage by many. This is helped by people seeing that there have been large gatherings and the general picture still appears to be decreasing, the government relaxing rules and everyone is just being a little bit more lax with handwashing and who they see.

So now a couple of weeks later we see the huge crowds on the beaches probably that figure will be around 5 infected people per thousand and so on and so forth as the weeks go by. It is how fast the seesaw flips to the other side to how many people will die. The people need saving from themselves at this point as it is obviously clear they are not practicing social distancing and the government have already said there would not be a second furlough period in the event of another lockdown, just how many lives will be left devastated if this does take off again?

 

[Harryflashman]

I’m not having a go at anyone by the way.

That makes complete sense.

I was just trying to understand as people have been telling me they’ve been going to pubs and obviously I was aware of 4th July.

I just wasn’t sure what was going on. As far as I was aware the pub on my street has been closed.

Makes sense to be honest. Whatever they can do to stay afloat. It’s going to be a tough few month either way.

some issues around are the ale is probably out of date and if your furloughing your staff you’d need to look at the viability of who you’re bringing back and whether it’s worth it .

 

[COYBL25]

They've been serving cocktails and pints in plastic glasses in a few pubs round East London for a while now. People just stand outside in the street or sit on the pavement

Exact same by me and what`s making worse ( depending on how you look at it ) there`s a row of benches in the square facing the restaurants that are serving the takeaway ale. So in effect what you`ve got is a massive beer garden !

 

[COYBL25]

Looks pretty inevitable to me! After months of lockdown the numbers who have/had this will be pretty small, so when we had these BLM protests a few weeks back in that large crowd you are probably talking a couple at most per thousand. Then those small number of newly infected people from that event will go off and infect a couple of others each as it seems social distancing is pretty much being ignored at this stage by many. This is helped by people seeing that there have been large gatherings and the general picture still appears to be decreasing, the government relaxing rules and everyone is just being a little bit more lax with handwashing and who they see.

So now a couple of weeks later we see the huge crowds on the beaches probably that figure will be around 5 infected people per thousand and so on and so forth as the weeks go by. It is how fast the seesaw flips to the other side to how many people will die. The people need saving from themselves at this point as it is obviously clear they are not practicing social distancing and the government have already said there would not be a second furlough period in the event of another lockdown, just how many lives will be left devastated if this does take off again?

Not necessarily, there was no spike following the last flocking to the beaches during the Bank Holiday in late May and then we had VE Day, with street parties etc and there was no spike after that either.

@Catfish Blues is good at explaining why it may or may not happen.

 

[blue1948]

Im not a fan of the term to be honest.

What is a second wave ? How many infections and deaths do you need to have for it to be a ‘wave’. Nobody seems to have a consistent answer.

I think it means lock downs again ,that will be a second phase .It is that or a vaccine but one will be with us quite soon .

 

[blue1948]

The UK is currently anticipating 4 different scenarios:

• Virus naturally leaves.
• R falls below 1 for summer and Autumn then increases again in Winter – within manageable surge levels (most likely scenario)
• Virus goes around the globe and returns (quite a real risk)
• Control of the virus is lost as lockdown is eased (most dangerous scenario and would require local lockdowns)

There is no guarantee of a second wave.

You may be right but judging by the UK government's performance so far and the fact there has been a second wave in some places I wouldn't hold your breath .

 

[The binman chronicles]

Not necessarily, there was no spike following the last flocking to the beaches during the Bank Holiday in late May and then we had VE Day, with street parties etc and there was no spike after that either.

@Catfish Blues is good at explaining why it may or may not happen.

But why would we see a huge spike especially early on? Like I said after 2 and a bit months of lockdown things won't immediately go from a dwindling number of cases to a mass problem as in that crowd there will only be a handful of infected people at most and at least back then there were still less interactions once they got back home.

This rings true when you look at the probable dates when the virus first came into Europe, Italy believe they had it before Christmas. It's that tipping point when enough people are infected does it then spiral out of control very quickly, the question is can they catch this before you get the on rush of hospitalisations which is by then already a couple of weeks too late.

I would like nothing more to be proven wrong and the virus just disappears but unfortunately it's still around, our starting point is worse than March and too many overly confident people and lack of controls does not equate to a happy ending.

 

[The binman chronicles]

I think it means lock downs again ,that will be a second phase .It is that or a vaccine but one will be with us quite soon .

It's just how it looks when the data is plotted on a graph. If after a steady decrease it goes back up again it is a second wave, if it's not as big as the first it could be classed as a small second wave.