Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[ramacca]

Wow, double counting to massage the figures, incredible. All this to save Hancock's political career. Even the Tory Telegraph have had enough of Hancock, he's become the sacrificial lamb. They're not even bothered that they're lying.

Tens of thousands of coronavirus tests have been double-counted, officials admit
Two samples taken from the same patient are being recorded as two separate tests in the Government's official figures
telegraph.co.uk

"The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England each confirmed the double-counting.

This inflates the daily reported diagnostic test numbers by over 20 per cent, with that proportion being much higher earlier on in the crisis before home test kits were added to the daily totals.

Almost 350,000 more tests have been reported in Government data than people tested since the start of the pandemic.

The discrepancy is in large part explained by the practice of counting salvia and nasal samples for the same individual twice.

Public Health England oversee the testing of patients who are seriously ill in hospital, as well as the most critical key workers.

The test involves a swab from the mouth and nose as well as a sample of saliva. Although both of these are taken from the same patient, they are counted twice by the Government in its daily data".

Never mind Johnson said 100 000 people a day which has not been met at all. They'll come up with loads of shenanigans to get Johnson's new figure of '200 000 a day' by the end of May. There will be loads in the post by next week.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Just to reiterate a point I’ve made a couple of times before . In Late January early February the chairman of the US Senate intelligence committee went to a briefing on Covid and subsequently sold millions of dollars worth of his stocks in hotels and hospitality . It’s alleged that Burr Told a well connected group that what was coming was “akin to the the 1918 pandemic “. Another senator loeffler also got a briefing and dumped a load of similar shares . If these well placed US politicians knew what was coming then our government most certainly did .

I absolutely underestimated what our country faced , I thought we faced an issue but frankly I underestimated it and I did so in a massive fashion . There are probably a host of reasons I responded in such a way but I absolutely did not see this coming . However I wasn’t sitting in briefing or reading the kind of reports that saw the above dump stocks and shares .

Ive listened to or watched pretty much every briefing and despite the answers becoming more political I felt a degree of sympathy for the scientists as it seems obvious what’s coming for them and if it wasn’t then the PM’s clinician answer the other day painted it
in 12 foot letters . However as the scientists seem to try and be the governments shield and defend every decision then frankly it’s hard to look beyond thinking they’ll half deserve what’s inevitably coming .

Credit where it’s due I think the treasury has done well , I think the measures have overall been as good if not better than expected and I think it’s be churlish not to recognise that . Business have gone to the wall and more certainly will do but some will certainly survive due to the actions of the government.

That's fair comment. But for every senator or senior politician that was privy to this information and dumped shares, there may be 10 or more who didn't. We just don't know. There was a potential risk so they made a decision to sell. A couple of senators selling shares is not, in my opinion, evidence that they knew the virus was definitely coming. They were just making a financial punt. If they knew what was coming you could argue that a lot more people in the know would be making similar choices, and indeed would be selling a lot more of their investments because, believe you me, the economical fall out from this is going to get a damn sight worse than it is now. Do you recall a conversation we had a couple of months ago in the EU thread? I said what we were discussing was probably going to be irrelevant because it was all going to be eclipsed by this virus., and if I'm not mistaken you took my comments with a pinch of salt. My old friends who work in banks are telling me they are busier than ever, not just in dealing with applications for government backed loans, but dealing with reporting of business's they consider to be at risk of failing. People who have worked in banking will know exactly what I mean. Basically they are expecting the fallout from this to be worse, in terms of domestic bad debts, than the crisis of 08/09.

I disagree with you about our scientists, other than to say that they have an incredibly difficult job to try and double guess how this virus is going to pan out. I would go as far to say that it would be impossible to get it 100% right 100% of the time. This is a brand new virus. Where I disagree is that I don't believe the government has, or is planning to throw the scientists onto the scrapheap. Yes the politicians have all too often hidden behind the science, but they have not hidden behind the scientists. When asked difficult questions about decisions made that turned out to be bad ones, they have invariably said that it was based on the scientific information available at the time. Ministers have quite often stood there and taken the stick being thrown at them, doing nothing more than regretting the number of deaths, or the lack of PPI, or the inability to carry out more tests. Frequently coming up with gibberish explanations and occasionally total fallouts like Hancock when he comically said he wasn't a magician. But they had never blamed the science until that woman last week, who's name I can't remember and, quite frankly, I never want to hear again. To blame the science the way she did was inexcusable and she let herself and her party down in that moment. She was totally out of her depth, as are a lot of the current cabinet ministers by the way, and I hope she get's kicked back into obscurity where she belongs.

When this is over, an independent inquest/hearing will be held, which will go into detail. Hopefully it will expose those who have performed badly in handling this, and if that happens to be a civil servant, a scientist or a politician then so be it. They are all well paid people with responsible jobs and should be judged accordingly.

I think you're right to praise the governments financial response to this crisis. It's probably the one and only area where they have performed well. I had thought the decision to give daily briefings was also an excellent idea, but then they spoilt it by feeding us BS. They ask us to take responsibility for our actions and act sensibly, then treat us like children at the daily briefings. They hide behind science but won't tell us what the science is. The briefings continually lack detail and transparency. They make promises that they have no idea whether they can fulfil them. They give deadlines and then fudge the figures to meet them. If they were just more honest and open with us then people may start to take them more seriously.

 

[Barnfred 55]

The law of averages says that there must be people on here who are health care workers, in the medical profession, involved in the chain of manufacture and supply of PPE, involved in local government, the police, etc, you can go on all day long.

Have you considered that the reason that they may not have posted anything to rebut some of the crazy stuff posted on here, is that as lurkers and occasional posters, they may not have the confidence to post for fear of being shouted down as a TORY, DEATH, SCUM, MURDERER, if their views don`t fit with the agenda of a few on here.

The likes of @LinekersLegs @RAFUH @Neiler @tsubaki @DrEFC @JEBUS_LIVES @Catfish Blues between them collectively post some excellent informative, balanced and measured stuff on this thread, but the counter balance to that is the few others who shout down anyone who`s views don`t fit with theirs and unfortunately I`d say that these are the ones who are putting off other people who have genuine stuff to add to this thread off posting.

That's the point I'm making mate. Lot's of people are posting stuff on here, really good informational stuff and I would add Bruce to that list you made. But nobody was making these points back in January and February, but are still scathing at government inaction during that period.

I'm sure there are people put off from posting on here mate, but they are more likely to be people who would be more supportive of the government, than those who would be posting stuff criticising them.

I have absolutely no doubt that jebus was right when he said loads of people were bringing up things like PPE from a very early stage. My concern is how high up the food chain those concerns got

 

[Chewbacca]

I honestly have seen nothing that would be regarded as ‘positive’ towards the government. I accept that announcements can be trumpeted a bit, but I’ve always felt that’s because of the criticism they have been getting....

What about all the coverage when Patel announced the fantastic reduction in shoplifting offences?

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Data reveals UK public's relaxed attitude to lockdown restrictions

The British public relaxed its adherence to lockdown restrictions in the weeks before they were officially loosened, according to new data. Across the UK people had already started to make more trips to parks even before Boris Johnson eased restrictions on movement.

On several occasions in recent weeks, people were going to parks at the same rate as they were before the lockdown. The data released by Google compares footfall based on the number of mobile devices detected in settings before and after restrictions were imposed.

The prime minister’s “Stay alert” address was aired on Sunday 10 May. It followed briefings from Downing Street that lockdown restrictions would be loosened, resulting in newspaper headlines, including Happy Monday and Hurrah! Lockdown freedom beckons on Wednesday 6 May.



The announcement did not immediately affect footfall in parks as the increases were part of a wider trend. However, the increase in movement in parks did coincide with Downing Street briefings and newspaper headlines that the lockdown would be eased soon.

Every day between 4 May and 8 May, movement in parks exceeded pre-lockdown levels, with footfall reaching 16% above the baseline on Wednesday 6 and Thursday 7 May, the highest level since the lockdown began.

Footfall in parks has exceeded baseline levels – defined as the median footfall on the equivalent day of the week as recorded between 3 January and 6 February – on seven of the 10 days to 13 May, with weekdays experiencing the largest increases.



Conversely, weekend visits to parks are down on pre-lockdown levels, perhaps indicating that people are taking exercise on weekdays while avoiding parks on Saturdays and Sundays due to concerns about overcrowding.

The UK has also experienced a gradual increase in footfall in other settings, with activity in transit hubs and workplaces also edging up in recent weeks.

While these figures remain far below the baseline – the median footfall for the corresponding day of the week in January to February – the activity in transit hubs was 38% of the equivalent day of the week pre-lockdown on five days since 6 May, their highest since the restrictions were put in place.

Similarly, workplace activity reached 55% of pre-lockdown levels on the day of Boris Johnson’s speech, although it should be noted that this compares that Sunday with a typical Sunday in January or February, and not a weekday, which would be busier.

The trends captured in the Google data collection are also reflected in other datasets. The government has published daily charts detailing transport changes in the UK since the onset of the pandemic, as part of its daily coronavirus briefings.



These show that, while the proportion of people using public transport remains low compared with normal times, the proportion of car journeys has been trending upwards in recent weeks, hitting 50% of the baseline on four consecutive days in the past week.

Apple data as of 19 May also shows that the number of people searching for driving directions was 35% lower than its January baseline, walking was 38% under and transit at 75% under. However, all three measures have seen rises in recent weeks.

While equivalent data for Italy and Spain shows that rates there broadly remain lower than that in the UK, searches for driving and walking in Germany and the US, where lockdown restrictions have been eased, have soared in recent weeks.

US car journeys exceeded baseline levels on both Friday and Saturday as yet more states loosened travel restrictions and were just 1% below the baseline on 19 May.

In Germany, driving was within 2% of the baseline level on the same date, while walking was 8% below and transit stood at 30% below the 13 January level.

 

[davek]

Wow, double counting to massage the figures, incredible. All this to save Hancock's political career. Even the Tory Telegraph have had enough of Hancock, he's become the sacrificial lamb. They're not even bothered that they're lying.

Tens of thousands of coronavirus tests have been double-counted, officials admit
Two samples taken from the same patient are being recorded as two separate tests in the Government's official figures
telegraph.co.uk

"The Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England each confirmed the double-counting.

This inflates the daily reported diagnostic test numbers by over 20 per cent, with that proportion being much higher earlier on in the crisis before home test kits were added to the daily totals.

Almost 350,000 more tests have been reported in Government data than people tested since the start of the pandemic.

The discrepancy is in large part explained by the practice of counting salvia and nasal samples for the same individual twice.

Public Health England oversee the testing of patients who are seriously ill in hospital, as well as the most critical key workers.

The test involves a swab from the mouth and nose as well as a sample of saliva. Although both of these are taken from the same patient, they are counted twice by the Government in its daily data".

Never mind Johnson said 100 000 people a day which has not been met at all. They'll come up with loads of shenanigans to get Johnson's new figure of '200 000 a day' by the end of May. There will be loads in the post by next week.

“number theatre” - David Spiegelhalter

 

[Barnfred 55]

Shipyards. They build nuclear submarines there. It draws people in from all over.

Astute class submarines

Astute class submarines

www.baesystems.com

I was actually joking.

But yeah, BAE do employ a lot of people given the size of Barrow, and it has been in production throughout. I've no idea how easy is it to self distance there so it could be a valid reason for the high number of cases. Nymz has also been quite critical of Barrow residents (that's an understatement by the way lol) so I'm guessing non compliance with social distancing has also played it's part.

 

[COYBL25]

The law of averages says that there must be people on here who are health care workers, in the medical profession, involved in the chain of manufacture and supply of PPE, involved in local government, the police, etc, you can go on all day long.

Have you considered that the reason that they may not have posted anything to rebut some of the crazy stuff posted on here, is that as lurkers and occasional posters, they may not have the confidence to post for fear of being shouted down as a TORY, DEATH, SCUM, MURDERER, if their views don`t fit with the agenda of a few on here.

The likes of @LinekersLegs @RAFUH @Neiler @tsubaki @DrEFC @JEBUS_LIVES @Catfish Blues between them collectively post some excellent informative, balanced and measured stuff on this thread, but the counter balance to that is the few others who shout down anyone who`s views don`t fit with theirs and unfortunately I`d say that these are the ones who are putting off other people who have genuine stuff to add to this thread off posting.

Sorry for leaving you off there @Bruce Wayne !

 

[Jay]

Update from Lebanon:

Yesterday we had our highest day since the start of the outbreak when it comes to new cases, 63 news cases (2 clusters), true that our early measures meant that we only had 26 deaths so far but what's the exit strategy? Even our health minister yesterday suggested that "soft" heard immunity might be the best solution, he said we can not keep the country closed forever, but going back to the old normal means explosion of cases with no capacity to handle the patients which means many will die who will not die if they receive the needed medical care.

Airport will remain closed for now and school/university year is canceled, tourism is dead with Hotels/Night Clubs/Restaurants warning that they will all go bust if they don't open soon, many industries suffering since people are only spending money on the daily necessities.

In other words, you can contain the spread of the virus but with huge social/economical collapse, it's easy to go into a lock-down, but then what???????

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Sorry for leaving you off there @Bruce Wayne !

I've had the hump for the last hour, I won't deny it.

 

[Jay]

By the way, i advise you all to read this, it pretty much explains why in some countries we had 1000s of cases/deaths while in other countries the numbers are few hundreds, but in the same time it also explain the problem going forward:

 

[Barnfred 55]

Data reveals UK public's relaxed attitude to lockdown restrictions

The British public relaxed its adherence to lockdown restrictions in the weeks before they were officially loosened, according to new data. Across the UK people had already started to make more trips to parks even before Boris Johnson eased restrictions on movement.

On several occasions in recent weeks, people were going to parks at the same rate as they were before the lockdown. The data released by Google compares footfall based on the number of mobile devices detected in settings before and after restrictions were imposed.

The prime minister’s “Stay alert” address was aired on Sunday 10 May. It followed briefings from Downing Street that lockdown restrictions would be loosened, resulting in newspaper headlines, including Happy Monday and Hurrah! Lockdown freedom beckons on Wednesday 6 May.

View attachment 87836

The announcement did not immediately affect footfall in parks as the increases were part of a wider trend. However, the increase in movement in parks did coincide with Downing Street briefings and newspaper headlines that the lockdown would be eased soon.

Every day between 4 May and 8 May, movement in parks exceeded pre-lockdown levels, with footfall reaching 16% above the baseline on Wednesday 6 and Thursday 7 May, the highest level since the lockdown began.

Footfall in parks has exceeded baseline levels – defined as the median footfall on the equivalent day of the week as recorded between 3 January and 6 February – on seven of the 10 days to 13 May, with weekdays experiencing the largest increases.

View attachment 87837

Conversely, weekend visits to parks are down on pre-lockdown levels, perhaps indicating that people are taking exercise on weekdays while avoiding parks on Saturdays and Sundays due to concerns about overcrowding.

The UK has also experienced a gradual increase in footfall in other settings, with activity in transit hubs and workplaces also edging up in recent weeks.

While these figures remain far below the baseline – the median footfall for the corresponding day of the week in January to February – the activity in transit hubs was 38% of the equivalent day of the week pre-lockdown on five days since 6 May, their highest since the restrictions were put in place.

Similarly, workplace activity reached 55% of pre-lockdown levels on the day of Boris Johnson’s speech, although it should be noted that this compares that Sunday with a typical Sunday in January or February, and not a weekday, which would be busier.

The trends captured in the Google data collection are also reflected in other datasets. The government has published daily charts detailing transport changes in the UK since the onset of the pandemic, as part of its daily coronavirus briefings.

View attachment 87838

These show that, while the proportion of people using public transport remains low compared with normal times, the proportion of car journeys has been trending upwards in recent weeks, hitting 50% of the baseline on four consecutive days in the past week.

Apple data as of 19 May also shows that the number of people searching for driving directions was 35% lower than its January baseline, walking was 38% under and transit at 75% under. However, all three measures have seen rises in recent weeks.

While equivalent data for Italy and Spain shows that rates there broadly remain lower than that in the UK, searches for driving and walking in Germany and the US, where lockdown restrictions have been eased, have soared in recent weeks.

US car journeys exceeded baseline levels on both Friday and Saturday as yet more states loosened travel restrictions and were just 1% below the baseline on 19 May.

In Germany, driving was within 2% of the baseline level on the same date, while walking was 8% below and transit stood at 30% below the 13 January level.

I've never been very good reading graphs mate. Are they making comparisons with a period covering Jan and Feb.? I'm not sure what it was like where you are but down here it practically rained for that whole period. Plus it was winter so you would expect the parks to be relatively under used.

Wouldn't it be more accurate to compare with the same period last year?.

 

[roydo]

Borrowed £62 Billion in April.

Up apx £52 Billion from last April.

Thats just April.

 

[Jebus_lives]

I was actually joking.

But yeah, BAE do employ a lot of people given the size of Barrow, and it has been in production throughout. I've no idea how easy is it to self distance there so it could be a valid reason for the high number of cases. Nymz has also been quite critical of Barrow residents (that's an understatement by the way lol) so I'm guessing non compliance with social distancing has also played it's part.

Lots of additional reasons alongside it such as the ones that @Catfish Blues mentioned.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Borrowed £62 Billion in April.

Up apx £52 Billion from last April.

Thats just April.

We can sustain it for a while, luckily. Most countries, and I'm talking about developed countries, won't be able to. The fall out from this is going to be seismic I fear.