Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[davek]

Hard to know, i suspect it will be looked into more, its weird that it broke on TV and not in an article of research, maybe that will follow. Some more detail:

The novel coronavirus first appeared in France on December 27, 2019, said Yves Cohen, an intensive care chief from Avicenne Hospital in Paris, in an interview with local media BFMTV on Sunday.

He said his medical team revisited test results of 24 patients with respiratory infections and tested negative for flu and other kinds of coronavirus in December and January, among them a male patient showed positive for COVID-19.

The patient was tested in hospital on December 27, a month before the first French cases were confirmed, Cohen said, adding that the test had been repeated several times to confirm the result.

The patient was sick for 15 days and infected his two children but not his wife who works in a fish stall of a supermarket.

Cohen initially questioned whether the wife had been exposed to fish products from China, but later confirmed that she had only been exposed to fish produced in France.

The expert said the man might be "patient zero".

"But perhaps there are other patients in other regions." he said. "The virus might still be circulating."

Both the man and the children have recovered and are in good health now.

As of Monday, France has reported more than 168,000 COVID-19 cases and 24,898 deaths.

Could there have been contamination of the December samples?

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Hmm. Waste of money or worth prepping for?

While people in care were left to die, very unsavoury...

 

[tsubaki]

Hmm. Waste of money or worth prepping for?

worth prepping for, though they are lucky it was never occupied to capacity because the staffing issues would have become really obvious rather quickly

 

[tsubaki]

Could there have been contamination of the December samples?

Possibly, though that it got here before the official date is incredibly likely.

 

[ramacca]

Its hot of the press mate, but the physican himself said the following:

Speaking to BFM TV, the French physician said: "We’ve reanalysed all negative tests on people who were diagnosed with pneumonia.

"Of the 24 patients, we found one who resulted positive to COVID-19 on December 27 when he was taken to our Avicenne Hospital."

Asked again to confirm whether the samples matched results to the coronavirus tests, Prof Cohen once again confirmed his diagnosis.

He continued: "Yes, it matched. We’ve controlled twice and it matched again, so we have COVID-19 in December."

From my reading of it (and i could be wrong) they didn't test the patient again, but the sample they took in Dec.

Can't find out if he did release the results.

Italian scientists investigate possible earlier emergence of ...
www.reuters.com › us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing

The Lombardy region is the centre of the Italian fashion industry, and have encouraged loads of Chinese migrants to come to Italy, read 30 000, to work in the clothing in the area. There are regular flights from Milan to China.

Edit. This doctor thought in November something was going on with pneumonia -

A “strange pneumonia” was circulating in northern
Italy
as long ago as November, weeks before doctors were made aware of the
novel coronavirus outbreak
in China, one of the European country’s leading medical experts said this week.
“They [general practitioners] remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November,”
Giuseppe Remuzzi, the director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research in Milan
, said in an interview with the National Public Radio of the United States.
“This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.”

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Just out - https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership

Sir Patrick Vallance FMedSci FRS	Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci	Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care
Professor John Aston	Chief Scientific Adviser, Home Office
Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSci	Imperial College London
Professor Phil Blythe	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport
Professor Ian Boyd FRSE	University of St Andrews
Professor Andrew Curran	Chief Scientific Adviser, Health and Safety Executive
Dr Gavin Debrera	Public Health England
Professor Sir Ian Diamond FRSE FBA	National Statistician, Office for National Statistics
Professor Yvonne Doyle CB	Medical Director, Public Health England
Professor John Edmunds OBE FMedSci	London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar FMedSci FRS	Director, Wellcome Trust
Professor Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSci	Imperial College London
Dr Aidan Fowler FRCS	National Health Service England
Professor Julia Gog	University of Cambridge
Dr David Halpern	Behavioural Insights Team, Cabinet Office
Dr Jenny Harries OBE	Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Dr Demis Hassabis FRS	Personal capacity as a data scientist
Professor Peter Horby	University of Oxford
Dr Indra Joshi	NHSx
Professor Dame Theresa Marteau FMedSci	University of Cambridge
Professor Dame Angela McLean FRS	Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Professor Graham Medley	London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Professor Andrew Morris FMedSci FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Carole Mundell	Chief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Professor Cath Noakes	University of Leeds
Dr Rob Orford	Welsh Government
Professor Michael Parker	University of Oxford
Professor Sharon Peacock FMedSci	Public Health England
Professor Alan Penn	Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Professor Steve Powis FRCP	National Health Service England
Dr Mike Prentice	National Health Service England
Mr Osama Rahman	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Education
Professor Venki Ramakrishnan PRS	Ex Officio as Chair of DELVE, convened by the Royal Society
Professor Andrew Rambaut FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Tom Rodden	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Professor Brooke Rogers OBE	Kings College London
Dr James Rubin	Kings College London
Professor Calum Semple	University of Liverpool
Dr Mike Short CBE	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Trade
Dr Gregor Smith	Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer
Professor Sir David Spieglhalter FRS	University of Cambridge
Professor Jonathan Van Tam MBE	Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Professor Russell Viner PRCPCH	University College London
Professor Charlotte Watts CMG FMedSci	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Development
Professor Mark Walport FRCP FMedSci FRS	UK Research and Innovation
Professor Mark Woolhouse FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Lucy Yardley	University of Bristol
Professor Ian Young	Northern Ireland Executive
Professor Maria Zambon FMedSci	Public Health England

 

[ForeverBlue92]

If you've been following this from first reported cases in November then it won't come as a surprise.

The question is though- if its been here since around say December is lockdown feasible to continue? How many folk would have had it by now considering all the travelling / interaction between the holidays etc.

 

[jayden28]

I was pretty ill in early Feb. Was a heavy flu with a bit of a fever, however, it came and went over about 2 weeks. There was no cough or difficulty breathing though which - couple with the fact there weren't any confirmed cases at that time - makes me think it was probably just a cold/flu.

You can only think though how far it probably has spread already, particularly in London. I've been face-to-face with thousands of people since the turn of the year and when the outbreak. With the incremental infections still arriving now in lockdown, the mind wanders to think of how many weer infected in these prior months before anything was curtailed. Antibody tests key.

Abit weird all this,my brother reckons he had it in early January,high fever,dry cough and his body aching too it lasted around a week then two weeks after my mum went into ICU for 4 days due to breathing issues,she does suffer from asthma from time to time but never have it as bad as that.

 

[Neiler]

Could there have been contamination of the December samples?

Its crossed my mind mate and that the physician may be pushing his profile (with nothing more conclusive then a bit on TV to draw a conclusion), of course i dont really know, though you would imagine infectious samples would be kept in a controlled sterile environment.

While its often assumed Italy was the source of the European spread, France had Europes first reported case.

 

[davek]

Possibly, though that it got here before the official date is incredibly likely.

Oh yeah, international travel would mean it couldn't have been contained in Hubei.

 

[tsubaki]

Oh yeah, international travel would mean it couldn't have been contained in Hubei.

100%, especially if the first cases were right at the start of December

 

[davek]

Its crossed my mind and that the physician may be pushing his profile (with nothing more conclusive then a bit of TV to draw a conclusion), of course i dont really know, though you would imagine infectious samples would be kept fairly sterile.

While its often assumed Italy was the source of the European spread, France had Europes first reported case.

It wouldn't be the first time.

The overall point though is that wherever it was found early on it could and should have been contained. That was down to a failure of the international order - more precisely a breakdown of that order in the last decade.

 

[H.H.]

Good news down here. It's just been stated that The Nightingale Hospital in London has been put on standby.
Hopefully all the other Nightingales in the country will soon also soon not be needed and the future the dreaded second wave does not come along?

 

[davek]

Just out - https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership

Sir Patrick Vallance FMedSci FRS	Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci	Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care
Professor John Aston	Chief Scientific Adviser, Home Office
Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSci	Imperial College London
Professor Phil Blythe	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport
Professor Ian Boyd FRSE	University of St Andrews
Professor Andrew Curran	Chief Scientific Adviser, Health and Safety Executive
Dr Gavin Debrera	Public Health England
Professor Sir Ian Diamond FRSE FBA	National Statistician, Office for National Statistics
Professor Yvonne Doyle CB	Medical Director, Public Health England
Professor John Edmunds OBE FMedSci	London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar FMedSci FRS	Director, Wellcome Trust
Professor Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSci	Imperial College London
Dr Aidan Fowler FRCS	National Health Service England
Professor Julia Gog	University of Cambridge
Dr David Halpern	Behavioural Insights Team, Cabinet Office
Dr Jenny Harries OBE	Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Dr Demis Hassabis FRS	Personal capacity as a data scientist
Professor Peter Horby	University of Oxford
Dr Indra Joshi	NHSx
Professor Dame Theresa Marteau FMedSci	University of Cambridge
Professor Dame Angela McLean FRS	Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Professor Graham Medley	London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Professor Andrew Morris FMedSci FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Carole Mundell	Chief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Professor Cath Noakes	University of Leeds
Dr Rob Orford	Welsh Government
Professor Michael Parker	University of Oxford
Professor Sharon Peacock FMedSci	Public Health England
Professor Alan Penn	Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Professor Steve Powis FRCP	National Health Service England
Dr Mike Prentice	National Health Service England
Mr Osama Rahman	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Education
Professor Venki Ramakrishnan PRS	Ex Officio as Chair of DELVE, convened by the Royal Society
Professor Andrew Rambaut FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Tom Rodden	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Professor Brooke Rogers OBE	Kings College London
Dr James Rubin	Kings College London
Professor Calum Semple	University of Liverpool
Dr Mike Short CBE	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Trade
Dr Gregor Smith	Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer
Professor Sir David Spieglhalter FRS	University of Cambridge
Professor Jonathan Van Tam MBE	Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Professor Russell Viner PRCPCH	University College London
Professor Charlotte Watts CMG FMedSci	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Development
Professor Mark Walport FRCP FMedSci FRS	UK Research and Innovation
Professor Mark Woolhouse FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Lucy Yardley	University of Bristol
Professor Ian Young	Northern Ireland Executive
Professor Maria Zambon FMedSci	Public Health England

"2 participants have not given permission to be named."

...Cummings and Warner.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Just out - https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership

Sir Patrick Vallance FMedSci FRS	Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci	Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care
Professor John Aston	Chief Scientific Adviser, Home Office
Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSci	Imperial College London
Professor Phil Blythe	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport
Professor Ian Boyd FRSE	University of St Andrews
Professor Andrew Curran	Chief Scientific Adviser, Health and Safety Executive
Dr Gavin Debrera	Public Health England
Professor Sir Ian Diamond FRSE FBA	National Statistician, Office for National Statistics
Professor Yvonne Doyle CB	Medical Director, Public Health England
Professor John Edmunds OBE FMedSci	London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar FMedSci FRS	Director, Wellcome Trust
Professor Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSci	Imperial College London
Dr Aidan Fowler FRCS	National Health Service England
Professor Julia Gog	University of Cambridge
Dr David Halpern	Behavioural Insights Team, Cabinet Office
Dr Jenny Harries OBE	Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Dr Demis Hassabis FRS	Personal capacity as a data scientist
Professor Peter Horby	University of Oxford
Dr Indra Joshi	NHSx
Professor Dame Theresa Marteau FMedSci	University of Cambridge
Professor Dame Angela McLean FRS	Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Professor Graham Medley	London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Professor Andrew Morris FMedSci FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Carole Mundell	Chief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Professor Cath Noakes	University of Leeds
Dr Rob Orford	Welsh Government
Professor Michael Parker	University of Oxford
Professor Sharon Peacock FMedSci	Public Health England
Professor Alan Penn	Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Professor Steve Powis FRCP	National Health Service England
Dr Mike Prentice	National Health Service England
Mr Osama Rahman	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Education
Professor Venki Ramakrishnan PRS	Ex Officio as Chair of DELVE, convened by the Royal Society
Professor Andrew Rambaut FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Tom Rodden	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Professor Brooke Rogers OBE	Kings College London
Dr James Rubin	Kings College London
Professor Calum Semple	University of Liverpool
Dr Mike Short CBE	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Trade
Dr Gregor Smith	Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer
Professor Sir David Spieglhalter FRS	University of Cambridge
Professor Jonathan Van Tam MBE	Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Professor Russell Viner PRCPCH	University College London
Professor Charlotte Watts CMG FMedSci	Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Development
Professor Mark Walport FRCP FMedSci FRS	UK Research and Innovation
Professor Mark Woolhouse FRSE	University of Edinburgh
Professor Lucy Yardley	University of Bristol
Professor Ian Young	Northern Ireland Executive
Professor Maria Zambon FMedSci	Public Health England

Hang on, where's Professor Dominic Cummings?