Cheers for that mate.
Couple of things. I don't think it's prudent to compare with 2019 figures alone as that may have been a particularly high or low level of deaths looked at in isolation. Better to use an average and not sure if this alters your figures in any way. Also, how have you got comparisons up to 27th April. Do you have another source of information through your employment?. The ONS figures only go up to the 17th April I believe.
As regards the combined figures now being published daily, correct me if I'm wrong but don't these still only apply to those who have tested positive, whether it be in hospital, care homes or the community. I don't think they include the suspected CV deaths in the community/care homes and I mentioned this in a previous post I made when the combined deaths figure was first published. I'm not sure whether the ONS publish a separate figure for suspected CV, but these would need to be added to the new daily figure for a more accurate total, and this would no doubt account for a fair amount of the shortfall.
I also think it's far too easy to say the difference between A and B equals C as there must be other factors to apply to make it accurate. For instance, I would argue that death through heart attack and stroke every week are possibly 10 fold that of car accident deaths. Given that some places are reporting a 70% reduction in heart attack and stroke referrals a lot of these will increase the risk of death without treatment. Same with things like burst ulcers/appendix and other ailments were swift treatment is crucial. I think it's a big step to take to offset all these against a reduction in car accident deaths. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there has been a lot more suicides than usual.
I know you won't like me saying this, but actuarial science is not an exact science, and I think it is wrong to assume the difference in deaths is purely down to CV19 which is what you have basically done. For instance, in that 6 week period you speak of, you could reasonably expect 13000 to die from heart attack or stroke. If the hospitals are only getting 30% referrals for both, how many more people are dying because they aren't getting quick medical assistance?. As an actuary who specialises in mortality data, you will have more idea than me. But I'm pretty sure that it will be a lot more than the approximate 150 fewer deaths from road accidents you would expect from reduced motoring levels over the same period.
lol
