352 deaths announced today by NHS England, 427 including the rest of the UK.
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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Barnfred 55
Player Valuation: £80m
Cheers for that mate.
Couple of things. I don't think it's prudent to compare with 2019 figures alone as that may have been a particularly high or low level of deaths looked at in isolation. Better to use an average and not sure if this alters your figures in any way. Also, how have you got comparisons up to 27th April. Do you have another source of information through your employment?. The ONS figures only go up to the 17th April I believe.
As regards the combined figures now being published daily, correct me if I'm wrong but don't these still only apply to those who have tested positive, whether it be in hospital, care homes or the community. I don't think they include the suspected CV deaths in the community/care homes and I mentioned this in a previous post I made when the combined deaths figure was first published. I'm not sure whether the ONS publish a separate figure for suspected CV, but these would need to be added to the new daily figure for a more accurate total, and this would no doubt account for a fair amount of the shortfall.
I also think it's far too easy to say the difference between A and B equals C as there must be other factors to apply to make it accurate. For instance, I would argue that death through heart attack and stroke every week are possibly 10 fold that of car accident deaths. Given that some places are reporting a 70% reduction in heart attack and stroke referrals a lot of these will increase the risk of death without treatment. Same with things like burst ulcers/appendix and other ailments were swift treatment is crucial. I think it's a big step to take to offset all these against a reduction in car accident deaths. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there has been a lot more suicides than usual.
I know you won't like me saying this, but actuarial science is not an exact science, and I think it is wrong to assume the difference in deaths is purely down to CV19 which is what you have basically done. For instance, in that 6 week period you speak of, you could reasonably expect 13000 to die from heart attack or stroke. If the hospitals are only getting 30% referrals for both, how many more people are dying because they aren't getting quick medical assistance?. As an actuary who specialises in mortality data, you will have more idea than me. But I'm pretty sure that it will be a lot more than the approximate 150 fewer deaths from road accidents you would expect from reduced motoring levels over the same period.
I only found out yesterday Tbf.
That’s incredible.
I have the same issue with my wife and the girls. We get the large case from Costsco every few weeks and there is always 1/4 full bottles lying around the house.
When I suggest buying one bottle and filling it up the tap, the look of disgust I get is mad. In most parts of the UK, nobody should be short of drinking water.
It may be a little different abroad because of the mineral content and hygiene etc.
Let me be clear I’m saying the fall in death rate is good.
427 if you include deaths from the rest of the UK mate.
Zezti
Player Valuation: £70m
Maybe one for the COVID RATS thread.
fullfact.org
What kind of scum does a person need to be to make up fake stories like this? Their only aim in life must be to unsettle people.
Fake stories wrongly claim Elisa Granato, one of the UK's first Covid-19 vaccine trial participants, has died – Full Fact
False news reports wrongly claim that Dr Elisa Granato, one of the first participants in a UK Covid-19 vaccine trial, has died. She is not dead.
fullfact.org
What kind of scum does a person need to be to make up fake stories like this? Their only aim in life must be to unsettle people.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
You need to put your foot down mate.....
My missus will only use bottled water to fill the kettle up Goat.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
“Ms Sturgeon said Scotland now has capacity to carry out 4,350 coronavirus tests a day in NHS laboratories.”........if you really want to have a go at someone, start here......oh, forgot, she’s not a conservative is she....
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
All deaths ?
Just hospital deaths mate.
70 occurred on April 30
148 occurred on April 29
39 occurred on April 28
The figures also show 70 of the new deaths took place between April 1 and April 27 while the remaining 25 deaths occurred in March, with the earliest new death taking place on March 16.
NHS England releases updated figures each day showing the dates of every coronavirus-related death in hospitals in England, often including previously uncounted deaths that took place several days or even weeks ago. This is because of the time it takes for deaths to be confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, for post-mortem examinations to be processed and for data from the tests to be validated.
Today’s figures published by NHS England show April 8 continues to have the highest number for the most hospital deaths occurring on a single day, with a current total of 863.
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So once they've added the care homes again in guessing that'll be another few hundred on top wouldn't it.
Barnfred 55
Player Valuation: £80m
Is that hospital deaths or does this figure now also including those that tested positive in care homes and the community?.
Anybody else getting a bit confused with data coming out at different times for different parts of the UK and whether it does or doesn't include community testing.
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