Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Barnfred 55]

Just hospital deaths mate.

Just seen this sorry.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

So once they've added the care homes again in guessing that'll be another few hundred on top wouldn't it.

You would imagine Macca.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Just seen this sorry.

I always get a tad confused with how NHS England does it mate.


70 occurred on April 30
148 occurred on April 29
39 occurred on April 28

The figures also show 70 of the new deaths took place between April 1 and April 27 while the remaining 25 deaths occurred in March, with the earliest new death taking place on March 16.

NHS England releases updated figures each day showing the dates of every coronavirus-related death in hospitals in England, often including previously uncounted deaths that took place several days or even weeks ago. This is because of the time it takes for deaths to be confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, for post-mortem examinations to be processed and for data from the tests to be validated.

Today’s figures published by NHS England show April 8 continues to have the highest number for the most hospital deaths occurring on a single day, with a current total of 863.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Cheers for that mate.

Couple of things. I don't think it's prudent to compare with 2019 figures alone as that may have been a particularly high or low level of deaths looked at in isolation. Better to use an average and not sure if this alters your figures in any way. Also, how have you got comparisons up to 27th April. Do you have another source of information through your employment?. The ONS figures only go up to the 17th April I believe.

As regards the combined figures now being published daily, correct me if I'm wrong but don't these still only apply to those who have tested positive, whether it be in hospital, care homes or the community. I don't think they include the suspected CV deaths in the community/care homes and I mentioned this in a previous post I made when the combined deaths figure was first published. I'm not sure whether the ONS publish a separate figure for suspected CV, but these would need to be added to the new daily figure for a more accurate total, and this would no doubt account for a fair amount of the shortfall.

I also think it's far too easy to say the difference between A and B equals C as there must be other factors to apply to make it accurate. For instance, I would argue that death through heart attack and stroke every week are possibly 10 fold that of car accident deaths. Given that some places are reporting a 70% reduction in heart attack and stroke referrals a lot of these will increase the risk of death without treatment. Same with things like burst ulcers/appendix and other ailments were swift treatment is crucial. I think it's a big step to take to offset all these against a reduction in car accident deaths. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there has been a lot more suicides than usual.

I know you won't like me saying this, but actuarial science is not an exact science, and I think it is wrong to assume the difference in deaths is purely down to CV19 which is what you have basically done. For instance, in that 6 week period you speak of, you could reasonably expect 13000 to die from heart attack or stroke. If the hospitals are only getting 30% referrals for both, how many more people are dying because they aren't getting quick medical assistance?. As an actuary who specialises in mortality data, you will have more idea than me. But I'm pretty sure that it will be a lot more than the approximate 150 fewer deaths from road accidents you would expect from reduced motoring levels over the same period.

@Catfish Blues kindly directed me to these guys for data on excess deaths across Europe that also includes UK figures. Report is up to calendar week 17 which I think ends 26th April and data for week 18 but can’t see it defined anywhere.

EuroMOMO Bulletin, Week 17, 2020

Pooled mortality estimates from the EuroMOMO network continue to show a marked increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the…

www.euromomo.eu

Graphs and maps

www.euromomo.eu

 

[The Penalty Box Dancer]

It seems we are getting on top of this virus now and I think in 4 weeks time we will be in a more positive position as the R value should be really low. The numbers are decreasing daily, the number of positive tests aren't rising, we are definitely in a much better scenario than we were a month ago.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I have the same issue with my wife and the girls. We get the large case from Costsco every few weeks and there is always 1/4 full bottles lying around the house.

When I suggest buying one bottle and filling it up the tap, the look of disgust I get is mad. In most parts of the UK, nobody should be short of drinking water.

It may be a little different abroad because of the mineral content and hygiene etc.

Merseyside has the best tap drinking water too. It's nowhere near as nice down here in Cornwall and we've started buying bottled water lately. Only use it for drinking cordial mind. We don't go through bottles of the stuff every week.

 

[ramacca]

“Ms Sturgeon said Scotland now has capacity to carry out 4,350 coronavirus tests a day in NHS laboratories.”........if you really want to have a go at someone, start here......oh, forgot, she’s not a conservative is she....

And your point about Sturgeon is?

Hancock has moved the goalposts to 'achieve his 100 000 a day tests' if true of course.

 

[COYBL25]

My missus will only use bottled water to fill the kettle up Goat.

Why ?

That’s like sterilising the water twice lol

 

[PhilM]

Merseyside has the best tap drinking water too. It's nowhere near as nice down here in Cornwall and we've started buying bottled water lately. Only use it for drinking cordial mind. We don't go through bottles of the stuff every week.

The water from Lake Vyrnwy is lovely and soft and there's no need for bottled water at all, and appliances last much longer and mostly need no descaling.

I know friends who live in Norfolk and the water is so hard and you can taste the difference. There's no need in Liverpool though for buying water bottles.

We must go through at least fifteen to twenty 500ml bottles a week, which is a waste of money - but I pick my battles.

 

[LinekersLegs]

The water from Lake Vyrnwy is lovely and soft and there's no need for bottled water at all, and appliances last much longer and mostly need no descaling.

I know friends who live in Norfolk and the water is so hard and you can taste the difference. There's no need in Liverpool though for buying water bottles.

We must go through at least fifteen to twenty 500ml bottles a week, which is a waste of money - but I pick my battles.

The secret to any happy marriage

 

[LinekersLegs]

Encouraging

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Why ?

That’s like sterilising the water twice lol

I've told her that mate,but for such an intelligent woman she's a bit George Raft. lol

 

[roydo]

The Talksport Covid jingles have been really really good. Laced with humour.

Their latest one just now; "Loose walks costs lives" !!

Google WW2 kids.

 

[Goat]

My missus will only use bottled water to fill the kettle up Goat.

WTF, nar bruv, I would bury mine in the back yard if she did that.

 

[Jebus_lives]

“Ms Sturgeon said Scotland now has capacity to carry out 4,350 coronavirus tests a day in NHS laboratories.”........if you really want to have a go at someone, start here......oh, forgot, she’s not a conservative is she....

How many can England carry out Pete?